692 
ACUS03 KWNS 290816
SWODY3
SPC AC 290815

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms will be possible over south Florida
Friday night.

...South Florida...

A southern-stream shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves from
the northwestern Gulf early Friday into the Southeast States and
Carolinas later in the day and into the evening. By Friday morning a
stalled front will be situated just south of the FL Peninsula and
into the Gulf. Only very weak cyclogenesis is expected over the Gulf
during the day. The primary surface low and accompanying low-level
jet will likely form farther east over the Gulf stream Friday night
with the arrival of deeper forcing attending the progressive
shortwave trough. As a result the warm front will only make limited
northward progress into south FL. Weak destabilization (up to 500
J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with the increase in dewpoints (mid to
upper 60s F) accompanying the warm front. Thunderstorms are expected
to spread into south FL Friday night as the atmosphere destabilizes
within the evolving warm advection regime. While the strongest winds
aloft and low-level jet accompanying the shortwave trough will
remain north of the warm sector, effective bulk shear (40-50 kt)
will be more than adequate for embedded organized storm structures.
An anticipated marginal thermodynamic environment will likely serve
as a limiting factor for a more robust severe threat.

..Dial.. 01/29/2020

$$