000 ACUS03 KWNS 290815 SWODY3 SPC AC 290814 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A closed upper low centered over southern CA and the Baja Peninsula should develop very slowly eastward on Tuesday. A large area of surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central/eastern CONUS. Appreciable low-level moisture is forecast to remain confined along/south of a front which should extend from deep south TX across coastal portions of the central Gulf Coast states and into parts of GA/SC. Both instability and large-scale forcing for ascent are expected to remain minimal where the low-level moisture exists, which should generally limit the potential for surface-based thunderstorms. Still, there should be some potential for isolated lightning flashes with clearly elevated convection from parts of TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. This activity will be aided by warm/moist advection atop the stable near-surface layer, along with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. MUCAPE is forecast to remain quite weak, generally less than 500 J/kg, which should limit hail potential with these elevated thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/29/2023 $$