000
ACUS03 KWNS 230735
SWODY3
SPC AC 230734

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday from a portion of
the southern through Central Plains as well as farther east across a
part of the Ohio Valley.

...Southern through central Plains...

Current indications are that a surface front will stall from
southern WI southwest into southeast NE and western KS with a
dryline extending farther south through west TX. Rich low-level
moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s F will reside south and
east of these boundaries contributing to potential for moderate to
strong instability. Weak impulses embedded within a broad fetch of
moderate southwest winds aloft combined with dryline and frontal
convergence will contribute to potential for thunderstorm initiation
as the boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon. Vertical
wind profiles will be sufficient for organized storms including
supercells, but activity may eventually grow upscale as it
progresses east during the overnight. Large hail, damaging wind and
a few tornadoes will be possible.

...Mid Mississippi Valley through Ohio Valley region...

A shortwave trough will suppress Great Lakes upper ridge resulting
in a belt of moderate to strong mid-upper largely unidirectional
wind profiles with 40-50 kt effective shear. Some storms may be
ongoing over a portion of this region, but outside of this activity,
diabatic warming of the moist boundary layer should result in
moderate instability. Storms should redevelop and intensify as they
spread east during the day with a threat for mainly damaging wind
and hail through early evening.

..Dial.. 05/23/2019

$$