000 ACUS02 KWNS 231709 SWODY2 SPC AC 231708 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms will be possible Friday from the southern High Plains to portions of the southern Great Lakes region. ...Discussion... Southern Rockies mid-level speed max is forecast to translate into NE early in the day2 period before it is shunted into the upper Great Lakes where it will flatten the prominent downstream ridge. Latest model guidance suggests high-PW air mass will advance around the western periphery of the ridge across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley as a notable surface warm front lifts to a position from southeast MN-northern IN by late afternoon. While boundary-layer heating will likely be suppressed across the Midwest due to abundant moisture advection, latest thinking is warm sector buoyancy will be maximized across eastern IA into northern IL by peak heating as veered LLJ focuses across this region. Forecast soundings suggest supercells are possible and this seems reasonable given the forecast shear and instability. If early-day convection does not completely disrupt the destabilization process then severe probs may need to be increased to account for the possibility for tornadoes and hail, along with some wind damage. Farther southwest across the plains of KS into TX, a quasi-stationary boundary draped from the TX South Plains into central KS will provide the focus for repetitive bouts of convection from day1 into the day2 period. Assuming this boundary is not displaced appreciably due to extensive cold-pool forcing, severe thunderstorms will develop in proximity to the wind shift again Friday afternoon. Strong heating across eastern NM toward southwest OK should prove instrumental in renewed supercell development within exit region of ejecting mid-level speed max. Favorably sheared, and amply buoyant environment suggests the potential for large hail, in addition to a few tornadoes across this region. A small corridor from the TX South Plains into western OK may need higher severe probs if day1 convection does not overly contaminate this region. Given the downstream ridging, the likelihood for higher buoyancy being maintained across the southern High Plains is fairly high. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Darrow.. 05/23/2019 $$