000
ACUS02 KWNS 220525
SWODY2
SPC AC 220524

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the central
and southern Plains and also across portions of Oregon, northern
California, and central Nevada on Saturday.

...Central/Southern Plains...
A mid-latitude cyclone is expected to progress gradually
northeastward across the central Plains on Saturday before weakening
and becoming an open wave early Sunday. An associated surface
cyclone will begin the period over eastern CO before drifting
eastward across KS. A dryline will extend southward from this low,
progressing gradually eastward through at least the early evening as
its parent low also moves eastward. Dryline at 00Z Sunday will
likely extend southward through western OK and far northwest TX then
south-southwestward into the Big Bend. 

Elevated showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across
portions of north TX and central/eastern OK as dynamically enhanced
low-level jet supports warm-air advection. Elevated showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible, particularly over eastern OK and
northeast TX, into the early evening as warm-air advection persists.
Vertical shear is strong enough to support storm
rotation/organization but generally weak instability is expected to
limit storm strength and persistence, tempering any severe
potential.

Farther west, a narrow zone of mid 50s dewpoints, near 70 deg F
temperatures, and modest instability is expected to exist ahead of
the dryline across western OK. In this area, surface-based
thunderstorms appear possible, although storm development will be
highly dependent the quality of the low-level moisture and strength
of the convergence along the dryline. If a storm does develop, the
vertical shear is sufficient for organization with some severe
possible. However, confidence in storm development is currently too
low to introduce any severe probabilities.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Mosier.. 03/22/2019

$$