000
ACUS02 KWNS 211724
SWODY2
SPC AC 211723

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Large-scale mid/upper troughing appears likely to continue to evolve
while progressing east of the Great Basin/Rockies through the
Plains/Mississippi Valley during this period.  It may undergo
further amplification Tuesday through Tuesday night, but models
indicate that a general positive tilt orientation will be
maintained, as perhaps the primary embedded mid-level jet (including
90-110+ kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle region through the middle Mississippi Valley, while
another digs near/south of the Texas Big Bend region. 

A fairly deep surface cyclone likely will accompany the lead
impulse, but it is forecast to weaken while migrating northeast of
the central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by 12Z
Wednesday.  In its wake, another cold front is expected to surge
east/southeast of the Plains through the mid/lower Mississippi
Valley and northwest Gulf coast vicinity.

Along and above the shallower leading edge of this front, models
continue to indicate that a southerly return flow, off a gradually
modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico, will
support increasing low/mid-level moisture return, particularly
within a narrow plume across the Texas Gulf coast through portions
of the Mid South/lower Ohio Valley late Tuesday/Tuesday night. 
Although stronger mid-level cooling appears likely to generally lag
to the west, this may be sufficient, coupled with favorable
large-scale forcing for ascent, to support enough destabilization
for areas of scattered weak thunderstorm development Tuesday night.

Farther to the southeast, ahead of the front, forecast soundings
generally suggest that relatively warm mid-levels will probably
preclude any potential for deep convective development across
southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi until after 12Z Wednesday.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Kerr.. 01/21/2019

$$