000
ACUS02 KWNS 291702
SWODY2
SPC AC 291701

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A cold, continental air mass will continue to sag slowly
southeastward from KY to the northwest Gulf coast on Monday, and a
diffuse boundary will extend east-west from the northern Gulf coast
to the southeast Atlantic coast.  Aloft, west-southwest flow will
persist from northern Mexico to the Mid-Atlantic, and a midlevel low
will dig south-southeastward near the southern CA coast.  Some
shallow convection is expected near the southern CA coast, but
buoyancy magnitude/depth will be very marginal for thunderstorms. 
Isolated thunderstorms may continue through the day along the
diffuse boundary across the Gulf/southeast Atlantic coastal areas. 
Forecast soundings show weak-moderate buoyancy and straight
hodographs which could support some storm organization.  However,
forcing for ascent will weaken with time and storm coverage is
expected to remain isolated at best.

Farther west, there will be a low chance for elevated thunderstorms 
across parts of OK/TX/AR with weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb, and
in association with subtle speed maxima ejecting east-northeastward
during the day and then again early Tuesday morning.  The midlevel
convection could produce brief bursts of sleet in OK and a mix of
sleet/freezing rain closer to the front, but buoyancy profiles will
be marginal for charge separation/lightning production.

..Thompson.. 01/29/2023

$$