000
ACUS01 KWNS 241925
SWODY1
SPC AC 241923

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado or two and/or a couple of wind gusts capable of mainly
tree damage remain possible this afternoon across southeastern
Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southwestern Georgia.

...Discussion...
Aside from line adjustments based on current convective evolution,
no changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook, as prior
reasoning continues to reflect future expectations.  Greatest severe
potential -- albeit limited/isolated -- remains over southeastern
Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and adjacent portions of the Florida
Panhandle where potential for a few stronger/weakly rotating storms
persists.

..Goss.. 09/24/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020/

...Southern/central Alabama and FL Panhandle/western GA...
The weakening remnants of tropical cyclone Beta and a related
surface low will continue to move northeastward from east-central
Mississippi across west-central/northern Alabama today. Immediately
to its east, a warm front will gradually move northward from the
northeast Gulf coast into and across southern Alabama/Georgia this
afternoon. While broken cloud cover may tend to persist,
boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and pockets of daytime
heating will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg along and south of
the warm front. The stronger low-level flow and shear/hodograph
curvature will be confined to areas along and north of the warm
front, with a narrow zone of overlap along the front with effective
SRH near 200 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt. The
combination of buoyancy and vertical shear will be sufficient for a
few supercells, with the possibility of isolated damaging wind gusts
and a brief tornado or two through around sunset.

$$