000
ACUS01 KWNS 190600
SWODY1
SPC AC 190558

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some of which could be severe,
are expected across parts of the Gulf Coast states today and
tonight. Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes should be the
main threats.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough with attendant 50-80+ kt mid-level jet
rounding its base will overspread the Southeast today. 45-55 kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet will likewise translate eastward
over the surface warm sector across MS/AL/GA and the western FL
Panhandle through this evening. At the surface, an area of low
pressure initially over the Mid-South will develop eastward across
the TN Valley today, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic by the end
of the period. A cold front extending southward from this low will
sweep quickly eastward across the Southeast, with the strong to
severe thunderstorm threat mainly confined along/near the front.

...Southeast...
Numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period along the cold front extending from near Memphis, TN
southward generally along the MS River to southern LA. Although
low-level moisture return will remain limited ahead of the front,
low 60s surface dewpoints combined with modest daytime heating and
gradually cooling mid-level temperatures should support weak
instability across the warm sector for much of central/eastern MS,
AL, western GA, and the western FL Panhandle through the day. A
gradual increase in convective intensity seems probable as the line
of thunderstorms moves eastward into AL by early afternoon, and
40-60 kt of effective bulk shear will easily support updraft
organization within the line. A few embedded supercells cannot be
ruled out, although the linear nature of the cold front suggests a
QLCS will be the dominant storm mode. Isolated strong to damaging
winds will likely be the main threat, but enlarged low-level
hodographs owing to a strongly strengthening/veering wind profile in
the 0-3 km layer will also support a threat for isolated tornadoes.
A slow decrease in intensity should occur from late evening into the
overnight as this convection eventually outpaces the modest
low-level moisture return while moving across central/eastern GA and
the FL Peninsula.

...Eastern NC...
As the upper trough approaches the East Coast, the surface warm
sector will make some attempt to advance northward across coastal
portions of NC early Sunday morning as the low-level jet strengthens
over this region. However, the potential for surface-based
thunderstorms over land appears too uncertain/conditional to include
any severe probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Dean.. 01/19/2019

$$