000
FNUS21 KWNS 251621
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

Elevated to critical conditions have started to develop across
southeast New Mexico. Expect these conditions to expand/worsen
through the day as mid-level flow strengthens and lee cyclogenesis
continues. Expanded the Elevated delineation slightly farther north
based on current and expected position of the front and dryline.
Otherwise, no changes were necessary. See previous discussion below.

..Bentley.. 04/25/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, while an
accompanying 60-70-kt midlevel southwesterly jet overspreads
southern NM and the southern High Plains. This will promote rapid
deepening of a lee cyclone over eastern CO, while a
southward-extending dryline sharpens over west TX. This large-scale
pattern evolution will yield an expansive area of critical
fire-weather conditions across the aforementioned areas, with
high-end critical conditions expected over eastern NM.

...Southern New Mexico and the Southern High Plains...
Behind the sharpening dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and
diurnal heating will contribute to a deep/dry boundary layer,
characterized by surface temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and
single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure
gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, and mixing into
the strong flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained
southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph). These
conditions will yield an expansive area of high-end critical
fire-weather conditions, given modestly receptive fuels. 

The overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity is
expected over eastern NM, where extremely critical meteorological
conditions are likely. However, a lack of abundant and very dry
fuels over the area precludes such highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$