000
FXUS63 KUNR 140424
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1024 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Current sfc analysis shows a nearly stationary frontal boundary 
draped across the Black Hills from northeast WY to southwest SD. 
The upper high is now centered over the Oklahoma panhandle region.
Monsoonal moisture wraps around the high and is being carried 
over the Dakotas. Regional radar shows a few storms firing over 
the Bighorns and a few showers beginning to form over the Black 
Hills. Mostly clear over the CWA with clouds forming over the 
Black Hills along the frontal boundary. PWATs are above average 
over the region with the Rapid City morning sounding showing a 
PWAT value of over an inch, which is above normal for this time of
year. 

CAPE values this afternoon will reach into the 500 to 1000 J/kg 
range and scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Low 
shear precludes any severe threat ... however, with the monsoonal 
moisture and light mean winds, any storms that form today will be 
capable of locally heavy rainfall. The areas with the greatest 
chance for storms will be in northeastern WY and the Black Hills. A 
strong storm can't be ruled out over northwestern SD where the shear 
will be the strongest and so the SPC has issued a level 1 out of 5 
risk for extreme northwestern SD. If a storm does get going up there 
this afternoon, it may be capable of damaging winds and hail.

Unsettled pattern continues as the ridge weakens through the latter 
half of the weekend and into early next week. A disturbance moving 
through on Sunday will bring a chance for widespread showers and 
storms Sunday night into Monday morning. Once again, low shear will 
likely preclude any severe threat. 

Temperatures next week look to be near to a tad above average with 
highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Conditions will be cooler in the 
higher elevations of the Black Hills where highs will be in the 70s. 
A ridge builds back up in the west, bringing northwesterly flow and 
drier conditions back into the CWA. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 1023 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will slowly move northeastward 
across the area through the period. Local MVFR/IFR conditions are 
likely with the stronger storms. Outside of storms, VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wong
AVIATION...Helgeson