000 FXUS63 KUNR 140424 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1024 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 154 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Current sfc analysis shows a nearly stationary frontal boundary draped across the Black Hills from northeast WY to southwest SD. The upper high is now centered over the Oklahoma panhandle region. Monsoonal moisture wraps around the high and is being carried over the Dakotas. Regional radar shows a few storms firing over the Bighorns and a few showers beginning to form over the Black Hills. Mostly clear over the CWA with clouds forming over the Black Hills along the frontal boundary. PWATs are above average over the region with the Rapid City morning sounding showing a PWAT value of over an inch, which is above normal for this time of year. CAPE values this afternoon will reach into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Low shear precludes any severe threat ... however, with the monsoonal moisture and light mean winds, any storms that form today will be capable of locally heavy rainfall. The areas with the greatest chance for storms will be in northeastern WY and the Black Hills. A strong storm can't be ruled out over northwestern SD where the shear will be the strongest and so the SPC has issued a level 1 out of 5 risk for extreme northwestern SD. If a storm does get going up there this afternoon, it may be capable of damaging winds and hail. Unsettled pattern continues as the ridge weakens through the latter half of the weekend and into early next week. A disturbance moving through on Sunday will bring a chance for widespread showers and storms Sunday night into Monday morning. Once again, low shear will likely preclude any severe threat. Temperatures next week look to be near to a tad above average with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Conditions will be cooler in the higher elevations of the Black Hills where highs will be in the 70s. A ridge builds back up in the west, bringing northwesterly flow and drier conditions back into the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 1023 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will slowly move northeastward across the area through the period. Local MVFR/IFR conditions are likely with the stronger storms. Outside of storms, VFR conditions will prevail. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wong AVIATION...Helgeson