000
FXUS63 KUNR 260527
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1027 PM MST Tue Jan 25 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 PM MST Tue Jan 25 2022

Water vapor shows long wave trof over the central/eastern CONUS
with northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains. Short wave
ridge is folding from the Pac NW through the Northern Rockies, 
with next upstream clipper diving southeast across northern BC. At
the surface, high is over the eastern Dakotas with pressure falls
expanding along the northern Rocky Mountain Front in advance of 
next clipper. Flurries continue around the Black Hills this 
afternoon but are diminishing.

Low temps tonight will occur rather early before arctic boundary
to our southwest lifts northeast, with increasing southwest
boundary layer flow and steady or slowly warming temps overnight,
especially in the west. Could be some stronger downslope winds in
the northern/eastern foothills of the Black Hills but the
strongest winds look to remain above the boundary layer.

Winds will gradually turn west to northwest on Wednesday with
surface trof moving through ahead of the next approaching cold
front. Winds may approach advisory criteria across far northwest
SD, although warm advection may keep winds from reaching their
full potential. High temps should moderate into the upper 30s and
40s.

Cold front sweeps through Wednesday and early Thursday as clipper
moves through the Northern Plains. Another period of upslope snow
looks likely for the northern Black Hills area with a few inches
accumulations possible. Some light snow also a possibility on the
plains. NBM seems to be under doing the snow potential so have 
raised pops for most areas. Gusty northwest winds with highs 
mainly in the 30s expected.

Mild temps quickly return for Friday into the weekend as long wave
trof shift east and drier northwest flow develops, gradually
becoming zonal then southwest by early next week. Temps will
likely be well above average into early next week. Another surge
of cold air is possible next week, but guidance is very
inconsistent as to the strength of the cold push and how long it 
may last.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1026 PM MST Tue Jan 25 2022



VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Areas in 
western SD and northeastern WY may experience some LLWS Wednesday
morning.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Dye