000 FXUS65 KPSR 021708 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1008 AM MST Fri Jun 2 2023 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably pleasant temperatures will persist through today, as afternoon temperatures will remain below the century mark. A warming trend towards normal through the weekend will precede another likely cooling trend through the middle of next week. Otherwise, dry and mostly calm conditions across the region into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... A secondary troughing feature continues to move eastward across the Desert Southwest this morning. This troughing is resulting in some lingering clouds across the higher terrain areas east of Phoenix. Another pleasant day is in store for today as residual troughing will keep temperatures below normal. Winds will remain diurnal as the stronger winds of the last couple of days have dissipated across the region. Heading into the weekend, ridging building across the West Coast today will slide eastward into the Desert Southwest. As a result, temperatures will warm back into the 100s for highs across the majority of the lower deserts into early next week. The latest ensemble guidance continues to show this ridging pattern across the region remaining mostly transient as troughing again digs across the eastern Pacific late this weekend. By Monday, southwesterly flow will be settling into the Desert Southwest once again. As was the case with last couple of troughs moving through the region over the last week, expect an uptick in winds early next week. This troughing feature will usher in cooler temperatures across the region as well, with afternoon highs back below the century mark for the Phoenix area through the middle of next week. Ensemble guidance remains in excellent agreement through this period, with the largest discrepancy being how quickly will the troughing feature weaken going into next weekend. Nonetheless, confidence is high in the sense that longwave troughing will persist across portions of western CONUS as a blocking ridge across central CONUS will continue to moderate temperatures across the region. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1710Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: Light winds will prevail through the TAF period, with speeds mainly 8 kts or less. Light diurnal westerly directions into this evening, before shift to light easterly. Skies to remain mostly clear. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Typical diurnal wind trends are favored through the TAF period, with S winds prevailing at KBLH and E/SE winds at KIPL shifting to for a few hours this evening. Speeds will be light aob 10 kts through most of the period. Skies to remain mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather with diurnal wind tendencies are expected to continue through the weekend. Below normal temperatures today precedes a warming trend back to normal into early next week. Minimum humidity will range from 10-15 percent each afternoon with sub 10 percent humidity expected early next week. Breezy conditions are expected to develop on Monday and Tuesday which could result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY...Updated 145 AM MST 5/31/2023 GILA: Based on the latest information from the water management officials, releases from Painted Rock Dam are expected to increment once again to above 1000 cfs during the next couple of days. This will cause the water flow along Gila River, downstream from the dam, to increase once again and will likely impact unbridged crossings. Therefore, the Flood Warnings along the Gila River between Painted Rock Dam and the Colorado River have been extended through at least June 6th. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Young AVIATION...Frieders FIRE WEATHER...Young/Salerno HYDROLOGY...Lojero