000 FXUS61 KOKX 061132 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 632 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front moves through this morning as low strengthening low pressure passes well south and east of the area. High pressure moves overhead tonight. A frontal system approaches Tuesday and moves through Tuesday night. Low pressure and its warm front lift north of the area on Thursday, followed by a trailing cold front Thursday night into Friday. Another system may impact the area Friday night into Saturday with high pressure possibly returning on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast is mainly on track, with just minor adjustments needed to reflect current conditions. Any precipitation continues to remain offshore. Clouds may push a bit farther west over the next few hours as an offshore low moves toward the area, but remains well south and east of the area. 500 mb shortwave over central New York and Pennsylvania in association with a weak surface cold front this morning will push east and move through the forecast area. This will help push developing low pressure off the North Carolina south and east of our area as it moves northeast. The pressure gradient between departing low and incoming high from the northwest will allow winds to increase today, with northwest winds of 10 to around 15 mph and gusts of 20 to 25 mph. The highest winds look to occur across coastal locations. With only weak advection expected and some downsloping off the higher terrain inland, temperatures will be as warm, if not slightly warmer than Sunday. Highs will be in the upper 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tonight will feature high pressure and deep layered ridging moving over the area. Winds will diminish and skies should be mostly clear, leading to decent radiational cooling for outlying area. However, if winds do not diminish as quickly as forecast, then some areas, likely eastern areas, will see warmer overnight lows. Lows will range from the teens and 20s in the outlying areas to around 30 across the New York City metro area. A frontal system approaches from the west on Tuesday, and despite warming temperatures at 850 mb Monday into Tuesday, an onshore flow and increasing clouds later in the day will mean cooler temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 40s. The warm front will likely move through Tuesday evening into Tuesday night followed quickly by the cold front. With limited moisture and much of the dynamics remaining north of the area as the front approaches the coast, not looking for much in the way of precipitation. Weak high pressure builds in for Wednesday, with zonal flow aloft and ridging building over the Great Lakes area. Weak cold advection, lack of polar air mass behind the front and downsloping winds will lead to warmer temperatures for Wednesday with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... There are has been little change to the overall forecast thinking in the long term. The 00z models and ensembles continue to come into better agreement for Wednesday night into Thursday. A progressive ridge will move over the northeast Wednesday night and slide offshore Thursday morning. A shortwave and its associated low pressure lifts across the Great Lakes on Thursday and then into southeast Canada Thursday night. A warm front will lift across the area on Thursday. Based on the latest model consensus, precipitation chances begin to increase from west to east Thursday morning and then become likely in the afternoon. If any precip develops early Thursday morning, it could be in the form of freezing rain across the interior as surface temps may end up close to or just below freezing initially. Warm advection aloft will also bring in a warm layer around 850 mb. Any freezing rain inland will be short-lived as temperatures should quickly rise above freezing through the morning. Rain chances quickly drop off in the evening as the forcing lifts well north of the area. The trailing cold front will then follow Thursday night. Rainfall amounts will be light and this is supported by NBM probabilities of greater than 0.25 inches on Thursday only around 25 percent. The aforementioned trailing cold front may linger nearby or just offshore on Friday. There will also be a much deeper upper trough approaching from the west through the day. This is where the modeling diverges, especially with the evolution of energy within the trough and its interaction with the nearby baroclinic zone. The best guess continues to be with a new low pressure developing nearby Friday night which then may pass somewhere from just southeast of the area to over New England. Another uncertain factor is with westward extent of deeper moisture. This will be all dependent on when/if the upper trough becomes more neutral or slightly negative tilt. If the trough remains positive, the system may end up tracking further south and east with much of its precip following that track. The latest forecast continues to follow the NBM due to the uncertainty. PoPs are still capped at chance Friday night into Saturday, PTYPE looks to be mainly rain with just a small chance for a mix of rain/snow inland if some marginally cold air is in place early on in the event. The system should move offshore Saturday night with high pressure starting to return next Sunday. Temperatures on Thursday will warm well into the 40s with low 50s near the coast in the afternoon. Temperatures may actually warm into the evening ahead of the cold front with some middle 50s near the coast and NYC metro. Highs on Friday look to remain well above normal in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Temperatures should then cool down closer to normal in the lower 40s for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front moves across the terminals early this morning. High pressure then builds in through this evening before settling over the terminals tonight into Tuesday. VFR through the TAF period. Light winds to start will increase out of the NNW through the morning, becoming around 15 kt sustained with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon. Gusts should begin to subside this evening with wind direction becoming N-NE tonight. Wind speeds should fall below 10 kt and gradually become light NE Tuesday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Wind direction may briefly start NE, but should settle to the NW- NNW 13-14z. Onset of the gusts may be 1-2 hours off from forecast. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Tuesday...VFR during day. Chance of a shower and MVFR ceilings at night. Wednesday...VFR. Thursday...MVFR or lower in rain. A chance of freezing rain inland early in the morning. Friday...Mainly VFR during the day. A chance of MVFR or lower and rain late in the day and at night. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub SCA conditions for all waters early this morning except the eastern ocean zone where seas will likely remain around 5 ft before winds increase later this morning behind a cold front prompting the issuance of another SCA across all waters. Non ocean waters are more marginal on the gusts and SCA may come down a few hours earlier than is currently in place. Seas diminish on the ocean and may fall below 5 ft on the eastern ocean zone for a few hours before increasing slightly back to 5 ft overnight tonight. Winds diminish tonight and remain below 25 kt through Tuesday. Gusts approach 25 kt on the ocean waters again Tuesday night as a frontal system moves through. Waves builds to 5 to 7 ft on the ocean Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Westerly winds on Wednesday, but SCA conds remain on the ocean through early evening with wave heights of 5 to 7 ft, falling below 5 ft Wednesday night. A return to SCA conds then arrives Thursday afternoon with a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front or trough, mainly for the ocean, but possibly for the south shore bays, Peconic and Gardiner's bays, and the eastern sound. Any non ocean waters fall below SCA on Friday, with lingering SCA for the ocean waters. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns at this time for the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/DS NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...DS MARINE...JP/DS HYDROLOGY...JP/DS