000 FXUS61 KOKX 271206 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 806 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through the waters today and pushes east tonight. High pressure builds in for Tuesday, which remains in control through the end of the week. A cold front then passes through during next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Adjusted PoPs to better align with current obs. This moved up timing of showers by an hour or two. Otherwise, rest of forecast remains on track. An unsettled start to the work week as a mid-level trough approaches from the Great Lakes, with an accompanying cold front moving through the region during the day. Ahead of the front lies a deep plume of moisture, with PWATs around 2 inches, that will allow for a line of showers to develop and track through the Tri-State from west to east. Instability will be relatively low, with SBCAPE of a couple hundred J/kg, so not anticipating a severe threat, though a few embedded rumbles of thunder are certainly possible. Maintained an isolated chance for this. The pre-frontal trough may instigate a few scattered showers early this morning ahead of the main activity, especially north and west of NYC. Otherwise, hi-res CAMs are generally in agreement depicting the main line getting into the Lower Hudson Valley later this morning, metro NYC closer to lunchtime, and Long Island and Connecticut into the afternoon. With a fairly deep warm cloud layer and a moist column, there is a risk for heavy downpours that could lead to minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. WPC has outlined a marginal risk for excessive rain across the area. Overall, QPF around half an inch or so is expected, though locally higher amounts will fall in any heavier showers/storms. Expect a cooler day than we saw this past weekend given the clouds and showers, with highs about 10 degrees lower than Sunday, generally in the mid to upper 70s. The frontal passage occurs in the evening, with drier air advected in behind it as winds veer northwesterly. This will setup a comfortable night as lows bottom out in the 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tranquil conditions develop getting into midweek as high pressure slides east from the Midwest. Tuesday brings a drier day with lighter winds. Dew pts drop into the 50s, making it feel more comfortable under a mostly sunny sky. Cooler air aloft behind the front will keep temperatures several degrees below normal for late June, with highs generally in the 70s. Winds back southerly on Wednesday as high pressure slides offshore. Temperatures bump up a few degrees in response, with highs on Wednesday getting back into the 80s almost everywhere. Global models indicate a shortwave in the flow approaching later Wednesday as an upper trough axis passes overhead. A weak cold front might be able to help force a few showers, though dry low-levels may preclude this. Omitted any mention of rain for now, though this potential will need to be monitored as we get closer. Generally stayed close to NBM for this period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep-layered ridging occurs behind the departing trough aloft, so Thursday will be dry with moderating temperatures as heights build. The ridge axis aloft flattens on Friday. Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature, but a thermally-induced trough may set up over the inland zones. Moisture is limited with mid-level capping, so will go with a dry forecast. Highs in the lower to mid 90s for NE NJ and most of the city as 850mb temps rise to around 18C. Upper 80s to around 90 for most other locations away from south-facing shorelines. A cold front with a pre-frontal trough then approach on Saturday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Went sightly below NBM for highs given the potential cloud cover, but if models back off on available moisture or further slow down the timing of the shower potential as they have over the past 24 hours, Saturday could be a few degrees warmer than currently forecast. The threat of showers and storms continue through Saturday night as the cold front enters the forecast area. Current thinking is that the front sags south of us Sunday morning. Still some uncertainty regarding how far south the front progresses. Models have trended farther south with this feature over the past 24 hours. Didn't have enough confidence to go with a dry forecast, but lowered PoPs from NBM for Sunday and Sunday night. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front approaches today and passes through early this evening. VFR through at least most of the morning push. MVFR conds develop late morning/early aftn with a line of showers and a few embedded t-storms. The activity lasts thru mid-late aftn, then bcmg VFR shortly thereafter. Mainly SSW winds 10-15kt, veering more SW-W this aftn. Gusts 15-20kt for some terminals. Winds become NW behind the front this evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts might be only occasional. Timing of flight category changes/showers/potential TSTMs may be off 1-2 hours. Chance that TSTMs do no occur. Winds late this aftn-early evening behind showers may be more veered by 20-30 degrees than currently forecast. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday...Mainly VFR. .Thursday and Friday...VFR. Chc SW gusts 20-25kt on Friday. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Southerly flow, with gusts reaching 25 kt on the ocean and far eastern Sound, continues much of today. Ocean seas build to 5-6 ft this afternoon. A cold front moves across the waters this evening, and winds should fall below SCA levels around then, but lingering 5 ft seas are likely east of Fire Island Inlet Monday evening. Added SCA to include far eastern LI Sound due to 25 kts gusts through 22z this evening. SCA in effect for ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet lingers overnight into Tuesday for 5 ft seas, though will need to monitor to see if conditions drop off earlier than expected. Otherwise, conditions will generally remain below SCA criteria from Tuesday through Thursday. The next chance of advisory conditions will be Friday afternoon as S-SW winds increase, and gusts on the ocean (and potentially on some of the non-ocean waters) increase to around 25 kt. Wave heights on the ocean increase to advisory levels for the afternoon and nighttime hours. && .HYDROLOGY... Locally heavy downpours are possible today and could result in minor urban and poor drainage flooding. An isolated flash flood occurrence cannot be completely ruled out, but the chance of this is low. Thunderstorms with heavy downpours could be possible Saturday into Saturday night. It is too early to predict the potential hydrologic impacts if thunderstorms occur. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a high risk of rip currents today for all ocean beaches as there will be 5+ ft southerly swells at 5+ seconds. Although northwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday after the passage of a cold front, a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast as the area will be coming off a high risk and it typically takes at least another day to transition to low. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332- 355. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DR NEAR TERM...DR SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JC MARINE...JC/DR HYDROLOGY...JC/DR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...