000 FXUS61 KOKX 040256 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1056 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in through Independence Day. A warm lifts north of the area on Tuesday, with its associated cold front moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in for Thursday with another frontal boundary affecting the area at the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Slightly adjusted downward with some rural outlying locations for hourly temperatures as well as their min temperatures. Also lowered winds through overnight. High pressure builds in from the west through overnight. The subsidence from the high will result in clear sky conditions and light northerly winds will advect in drier air. This will allow for radiational cooling. Forecast min temperatures range from the lower 50s in outlying and rural locations to the mid to upper 60s within NYC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Strong subsidence on Independence Day, so any cu development is expected to be limited and flat attm. Some thin cirrus possible by the end of the day, but the bottom line is a mostly sunny day. Light nly winds to start the day, followed by sea breeze flow in the aftn. The NBM was used for high temps, which yields mainly low to mid 80s. Increasing high clouds by late Mon ngt, but this does not appear to be too strong of a limiting factor for low temps. Especially after a mainly clear eve. As a result, again went with the cooler MAV/MET blend. There could be some patchy fog in the mrng with the added llvl moisture from the onshore flow, which has been added to the fcst. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A warm front lifts north of the region on Tuesday and a return southerly flow sets up, introducing a noticeably more humid airmass. However, increase in cloud coverage will prevent temperatures from getting too warm, and in fact will be near normal for this time of year on Tuesday. Tuesday seems to be the best chance for showers and thunderstorms with the warm front, then the associated cold front moving through late overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now, any thunderstorms looks to limited to north and west of New York City for Tuesday and into the first half of Tuesday night. Other areas will see a slight chance for thunderstorms mainly with the cold frontal passage late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. A pre-frontal trough will move towards the region late in the day Tuesday. There may be enough shear and instability to produce some strong to sever thunderstorms across the interior. Will have to continue to monitor this threat. SPC has placed portions of northeast New Jersey in a slight risk for severe storms for Tuesday. Deterministic models show high pressure building in from southern Canada on Wednesday, however ensemble models continue to show chances for precipitation to continue, though not as widespread as Tuesday with cyclonic flow aloft continuing. Though, Wednesday will not be a washout with only a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms is currently forecast. Mainly dry and somewhat less humid conditions are expected for Wednesday night through Thursday with the high continuing to build in from the northwest. The unsettled weather is expected to continue into the end of the week as another cold front approaches Thursday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in for Saturday night and Sunday. With more clouds than expected for much of the week, temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds in from the west through Monday morning and then will move offshore Monday afternoon into Monday night. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be a NW to N flow around 5 kts overnight. Winds will transition similarly on Monday compared to the previous day with the difference being the sea breeze will move in across more terminals during the mid to late afternoon. All terminals are expected to switch to more SW to S flow in the afternoon except for KSWF. Wind speeds Monday will remain mainly in the 5-10 kt range. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Sea breeze timing Monday could be 1-2 hours off from TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Mon Afternoon...VFR. .Tue-Early Wed Morning...MVFR or lower at times. Showers, mainly Tuesday afternoon/night with a chance of showers lingering overnight into early Wednesday. Slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt Tue into Tue night. .Rest of Wed...Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR possible during the day. Otherwise, mainly VFR. .Thu...Mainly VFR. .Fri...MVFR or lower at times with a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain blw sca lvls thru Mon ngt as high pres builds over the waters. SCA may be needed for late Tuesday into Tuesday night with southerly winds increasing and 25 kt gusts becoming frequent for most coastal locations except the western sound and harbor. Waves build to around 5 ft on the ocean waters as well during this time frame. Conditions diminish Tuesday night, and should come down below SCA criteria by Wednesday morning. Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through Friday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a low risk of rip currents on Monday. An increasing southerly flow of 15 to 20 kt Tuesday will aid in a high risk of rip currents. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JM AVIATION...JM