000 FXUS61 KOKX 191746 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1246 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the area today and remains in place through Wednesday morning. Low pressure then impacts the area Wednesday into Thursday before high pressure returns for Friday into Saturday. Another low pressure system then impacts the area on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Forecast remains on track, with a modified Arctic air mass across the area. Daytime highs will remain in the upper 20s to mid 30s despite plenty of sunshine. Although the high will remain centered over the region tonight, high clouds will gradually increase overnight ahead of an area of low pressure approaching from the southwest. With light winds, temperatures will range from the lower teens in typically cooler outlying locations to the mid 20s in New York City. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Wednesday morning will start off dry with high pressure in place and ridging aloft as an area of low pressure approaches from the southwest. As the low moves toward the area during the day and the high is shunted off to the east, precipitation will overspread the region from southwest to northeast Wednesday afternoon. As we have seen several times this winter, the parent low will track well north and west of the region, with a secondary low developing over the Mid Atlantic Wednesday night and tracking over the region early Thursday. This is a less than ideal set up for significant winter weather across the region, although antecedent cold air at the surface will allow precipitation to start as snow before giving way to a wintry mix and eventually rain as temperatures warm significantly aloft. As noted above, with a cold airmass in place, temperatures should be cold enough for precipitation to begin as all snow across the region on Wednesday. The airmass will also be quite dry, which should help delay the onset of any snow until early afternoon for areas southwest of NYC, and late afternoon to early evening for eastern portions of Long Island and southern Connecticut. As warm air moves in aloft Wednesday evening, precipitation will transition fairly quickly to rain at the coast, with only an hour or two of mixed precipitation expected. Farther inland, a wintry mix could linger for several hours Wednesday evening into Wednesday night before precipitation changes to all rain. Across the most sheltered valleys well north and west where cold air typically takes the longest to dislodge, a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain could linger into early Thursday morning. At this time, snowfall accumulations range from less than an inch across the eastern half of the area to 1-2 inches across the western half of the forecast area, including New York City. Any ice accumulations are confined to the interior, where less than one tenth of an inch is forecast. Precipitation will quickly come to an end Thursday morning as the low moves off to the northeast. Temperatures then rise into the low 50s across much of the area Thursday afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The cold front moves offshore Thursday night, with high pressure building in through the day on Friday and a return to seasonable temperatures. The next system of concern impacts the area for the latter half of the weekend, as the overall synoptic pattern takes on a similar set up to the midweek system with the next shortwave and low pressure amplifying well to our west with deep layered ridging along the eastern seaboard. There once again appears to be no favorable surface high to our north. This makes it much less favorable for all frozen precip and more favorable for liquid once lift and moisture increases late Saturday into Sunday. The current suite of models and ensembles has the highest probability of precip Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. Temperatures should be near seasonable on Saturday and then possibly warm above normal on Sunday with current expected track of the low to our north. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds into the region into this evening. VFR into this evening. NW winds mainly north of 310 magnetic 10-15 kt, diminishing this evening. Occasional gusts 16-19 kt possible this aftn. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Wind direction may vary 20-30 degrees from forecast this afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Wind direction may vary 20-30 degrees from forecast this afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Wind direction may vary 30-40 degrees from forecast this afternoon. KTEB TAF Comments: Wind direction may vary 20-30 degrees from forecast this afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: Wind direction may vary 20-30 degrees from forecast this afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: Wind direction may vary 20-30 degrees from forecast this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday aftn...MVFR/IFR in snow. .Wednesday night...IFR or lower possible in a wintry mix evening, then rain overnight. Chc fzra at KSWF after midnight. LLWS possible for coastal terminals after midnight. .Thursday morning...MVFR or lower possible in -ra/-dz. .Thursday afternoon-Friday night...VFR. W-NW winds G20-25KT Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. .Saturday...VFR AM. Chc MVFR or lower in aftn with rain/snow mix. .Sat night-Sunday... IFR or lower with wintry mix Sat eve changing to all rain by midnight and lasting thru Sun. Chc Westerly gusts 30-40kt Sun aftn. && .MARINE... Canadian high pressure builds into the area waters through tonight. This high pressure area then moves farther out into the Atlantic Wednesday with a warm front approaching from the southwest. A low along the front forms with the low moving across Wednesday night. The low passes northeast of the waters Thursday and eventually southeast of Nova Scotia Thursday night. Meanwhile, by Thursday, the pressure gradient weakens across the local region as a strong high starts to build in from the west Friday. Winds and seas have subsided across all waters, so the SCA has been cancelled. With high pressure building across the waters, conditions should remain tranquil through Wednesday evening. Late Wednesday night, another similar setup takes place with an approaching warm front and high moving offshore. SCA conditions could potentially return across the ocean late Wednesday night into Thursday. Then, behind the system with more gusty westerly flow SCA winds will be possible for all waters for Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening. Otherwise, non-ocean waters will be more marginal for SCA winds while the ocean will be more probable for SCA with gusts in SCA range Thursday into Thursday night. In addition, SCA seas on the ocean could linger Thursday into early Friday. A full return of sub-SCA conditions for all waters is forecast for Friday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns anticipated through the work week. Liquid equivalent precipitation amounts Wednesday into early Thursday morning will generally be around one half inch. Another system may result in more wet weather late this weekend, but it is too early to tell if any hydrologic will occur. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a chance for some minor coastal flooding for high tide cycles early Thursday, particularly across the South Shore Back Bays of Long Island and Western Long Island Sound along the shorelines of Southwest Connecticut. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC Central Park winds are out of service until further notice. Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FEB NEAR TERM...FEB/MD SHORT TERM...FEB LONG TERM...FEB/DS AVIATION...JC MARINE...MD/JM HYDROLOGY...FEB/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...