000 FXUS61 KOKX 041523 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1123 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain just to the south of the region today before lifting north as a warm front tonight. This front will lift north of the region on Friday. A cold front then approaches, moving in late Friday night into Saturday. The front moves southeast of Long Island Saturday night. High pressure will then build in for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The forecast is on track. A frontal boundary will remain south of the region today. With weak high pressure near the region, expect plenty of sunshine along with winds from the SW in the morning, becoming more southerly by afternoon. The result will be another warm day with temperatures in the 80s, with a few spots approaching or even reaching 90 west of NYC. Along the immediate coast, temperatures may only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. There is a high rip current risk through this evening at the ocean beaches from Smith Point NY to Montauk Point NY. This is due to 5 ft S-SE long period swells. There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches west of Smith Point NY through this evening where swells will be 3 to 4 ft. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The frontal boundary south of the region will lift northward as a warm front tonight. Meanwhile, a shortwave moving in from the Ohio Valley will pass over the region, setting of a period of rain showers. Have raised pops to likely for portions of the region with most forecast models having some precip tonight. For now, will keep thunder wording out of the forecast as instability and forcing remain minimal. Lows tonight will fall into the 60s. The front continues to lift north on Friday with a warm, moist airmass moving back into the area. A cold front approaching from the west will once again set up an afternoon of showers and thunderstorms with the best chances during the afternoon hours with daytime heating. Temperatures will climb into the 70s and 80s. There currently is a high rip current risk at the ocean beaches Friday due to 5 ft S-SE long period swells. However, there is a chance the swells are a bit less which would lead to a moderate rip current risk. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid level zonal flow becomes more SW Saturday night with the passage of a shortwave. Then the mid level flow becomes NW Sunday into early next week with ridging. Ridge axis moves across midweek with another shortwave approaching next Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will approach Friday night, move across the region on Saturday, and slide east of the area late Saturday into Saturday night. This front will ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. Expect the chances for showers and thunderstorms to continue both Friday night and Saturday, with once again the best chances being on Saturday with daytime heating. Any showers taper off behind the cold front Saturday night. High pressure from Central Canada will then build into the region for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Dry weather will remain across the region Sunday through Monday night. Temperatures are forecast to be near normal. The high pressure area will settle offshore into the Atlantic Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another low pressure system approaches just after midweek with its associated cold front. Temperatures will gradually trend upward. Dry conditions forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night. Chances of showers return Wednesday into Wednesday night next week. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR through the TAF period. A weak cold front will stall south of the terminals this morning. The front lifts back north as a warm front this evening through tonight. Light W-NW flow to start will shift to the SW towards late morning, with sea breeze development in the afternoon. Wind speeds should be 10 kt or less. S-SW winds then gradually diminish this evening through tonight. Showers are expected tonight with brief MVFR possible. TSRA cannot be ruled out, but coverage and timing is uncertain and have left mention out of TAF. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing may be off by 1-2 hours. Adjustments likely for timing of showers this evening/tonight. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing may be off by 1-2 hours. Adjustments likely for timing of showers this evening/tonight. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing may be off by 1-2 hours. Winds could be more SE with the sea breeze than currently indicated. Adjustments likely for timing of showers this evening/tonight. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing may be off by 1-2 hours. Winds could be more SE with the sea breeze than currently indicated. Adjustments likely for timing of showers this evening/tonight. KHPN TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing may be off by 1-2 hours. Adjustments likely for timing of showers this evening/tonight. KISP TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing may be off by 1-2 hours. Adjustments likely for timing of showers this overnight. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Fri...Showers and thunderstorms possible with MVFR in the afternoon and evening, especially N and W of NYC. .Sat...Mainly VFR. Chance shower or thunderstorm. .Sun-Mon...VFR. && .MARINE... It appears more and more likely that seas will remain around 4 ft on our ocean waters from Sandy Hook, NJ to Fire Island Inlet, NY. As a result, have dropped the small craft advisory for that zone. Marginal SCA seas will linger on the rest of the ocean waters today with the easternmost ocean west of Moriches inlet staying up the longest. No changes to the Small Craft Advisory for these two zones. Ahead of another frontal system, Friday night into early Saturday could have some SCA conditions across the ocean, particularly east of Fire Island Inlet. Otherwise for other time periods of the marine long term Friday through Monday night, mainly below SCA conditions are forecast. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are anticipated. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... More widespread minor coastal flooding is expected with tonight's high tide cycles as we approach a full moon. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for southern Queens/Nassau and coastal Fairfield and Westchester Counties. A statement has been issued for locations along the NY Harbor and northwest Long Island along the Western Sound. The full moon occurs on Friday and minor coastal flooding is again possible. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power. KOKX WSR-88D radar will be down until approximately June 15 for the pedestal refurbishment. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Friday for NYZ071. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178-179. High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ081. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...BC/JM AVIATION...DJ MARINE...BC HYDROLOGY...BC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...