000 FXUS61 KOKX 140222 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1022 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure passes just to our southeast tonight, followed by building high pressure Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure and a cold front will affect the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. The low moves to the northeast Thursday as high pressure begins to build to the southwest. High pressure will then dominate Friday into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Precipitation remains on track tonight with showers approaching from the south. Models continue to indicate that the majority the rain passes south of the region, just brushing Long Island overnight. Made minor updates to sky cover, temperatures, and dewpoints to better capture the latest trends, otherwise the forecast remains on track. Increasing cyclonic flow aloft along with a southern stream jet streak passing just off to our SE tonight will help develop a weak surface low. The center of this low should remain offshore, but will be close enough to bring chances of rainfall mainly east of NYC, but still at least a slight chance in the vicinity of the city. Any accumulations would be light. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... There will be a chance of lingering rain during the first half of Monday morning over LI and SE CT. Otherwise, dry weather and diminishing clouds on Monday with highs above normal across the Tri-State area. The flow aloft Monday night through Tuesday becomes more zonal and surface high shifts towards us through the period with its axis moving offshore Tuesday afternoon. Rain-free conditions therefore continue, and temperatures will return closer to seasonable levels. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A progressive northern stream will dominate the weather through the long term period with a relatively amplified pattern. The beginning of the long term will be tranquil as ridging moves into the western Atlantic and a significant shortwave amplifies into the Great Lakes region. The forecast as been consistent, and confidence increasing, for a deep coastal low to develop Wednesday afternoon and the upper trough closes off and becomes negative. An impulse moving into the base of the trough emerges off the mid Atlantic late Wednesday with a coastal low expected to develop along the cold front, and along a thermal ridge, and quickly deepen Wednesday night. There will be a lot of lift with the low along with elevated instability and elevated CAPE. Precipitable water vales quickly increase to 1 1/2 inches during this time. A brief period of moderate to heavy rainfall is likely late Wednesday afternoon into the evening with embedded convective elements in the rain. A rumble of thunder is a possibility at that time as well. There is also a flood threat. See the hydrology section for details. The low tracks quickly along the New england coast Wednesday night and precipitation then ends. With wrap around moisture Thursday, and some energy rotating around the west side of the upper low, there is a slight chance of a few showers across the far interior zones Thursday. Temperatures Tuesday night will not be diurnal as strong warm advection develops. Lows will most likely occur Tuesday evening, then temperatures will rise through the night, especially across the inland. Strong and gusty westerly winds develop behind the low Thursday, mainly near the coast. Winds and gusts are expected to remain below advisory levels at this time. Tranquil weather returns as an amplified ridge builds into the area Thursday night through the upcoming weekend. Next weekend temperatures are likely to be above normal. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak high pressure along southern New England into Long Island weakens overnight as a wave of low pressure moving off the DELMARVA tracks south of Long Island. High pressure builds in early Monday, then a cold front passes through Monday evening. VFR until late tonight. MVFR ceilings develop in stratus after 07Z, with a low chance of IFR in a few locations toward Monday morning. Rain chances will be confined to eastern terminals and off the coast, and only indicated VCSH at KISP and KGON. VFR conditions return mid morning into the afternoon. Winds generally light and variable through the overnight and into early Monday morning. Winds then become W to SW 5 to 10 kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday night-Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday...MVFR/IFR likely developing in rain. Chc SE gusts around 25 kt. .Thursday...VFR. NW gusts 25 to 35kt. .Friday...VFR. NW winds, diminishing gusts. && .MARINE... A weak pressure gradient will prevail over the waters through Tuesday. Sustained winds for much of this period are expected to be at 10 kt or less, but may briefly approach 15 kt Monday night. Seas should remain below 5 ft. High pressure over the forecast waters Tuesday moves offshore through Tuesday night as a deepening low, and associated cold front, approaches from the Great Lakes. A coastal low is expected to develop south of Long Island Wednesday afternoon and track along the New England coast Wednesday night. Conditions will be sub SCA levels Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon SCA conditions develop. Wind gusts increase Wednesday night into Thursday as the low moves away and a strong west to northwest flow develops. Gale force gusts are likely Wednesday night on the ocean waters, and across all the forecast waters Thursday, possibly into early Thursday evening. Winds subside Thursday night into Friday, along with ocean seas. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts for any rainfall that occurs tonight into early Monday morning. A significant rainfall of 1 1/2 to 2 inches is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, with locally higher amounts possible. The bulk of the rainfall is currently expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Urban, poor drainage, and low lying flooding is a significant threat. There is a possibility of flash flooding with a few of the smaller, and fast responding, rivers and streams approaching bankfull. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MET NEAR TERM...FEB/MET SHORT TERM...JC/MET LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MET MARINE...JC/MET HYDROLOGY...JC/MET EQUIPMENT...