000 FXUS61 KOKX 222332 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 632 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains anchored over the southeastern states tonight into Sunday, then drifts off the southeast coast late Sunday and Sunday night. A series of surface lows move into the region late Monday from the Ohio River Valley. A long duration rain event is expected through Wednesday night. A cold front pushes south of New York State Thursday with drier conditions forecast through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure remains centered over the southeastern states with a weak surface trough through New England and the mid Atlantic. Mid and upper level flow nears nearly zonal with a very weak low amplitude shortwave moving through the northern stream late tonight into Sunday morning. There may be a few thin high clouds across the northern zones, although the atmosphere is dry. While there is little temperature advection tonight, the airmass across the area have been modifying under full sun through Saturday. Skies will be near clear, with light winds, good radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be near to perhaps just below, seasonal normal levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A weak upper level northern stream shortwave moves through the region during Sunday, accompanied by weak vorticity. Mid level moistures does increase by late Sunday into Sunday evening, and a few clouds are possible into Sunday night. The low level and surface flow will be westerly to southwesterly, and light, Sunday into Sunday night. Again, there will be little temperature advection, and the airmass will continue to warm with near full sun. For high temperatures Sunday went slightly above guidance. Warmest areas will be inland, although coastal areas will initially warm before seas breezes develop, and winds become more southerly. A little stronger temperature advection sets up late Sunday into Sunday night, and lows Sunday night will remain above seasonal normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry conditions to start Monday proceed an unsettled pattern expected for the week. Clear skies during the day will allow above normal temperatures in the 50s by the afternoon. An incoming low pressure system from the Ohio River Valley will have to be monitored closely late afternoon Monday into the evening hours. Initially zonal flow overhead spurred by a +130 kt jet max near Tennessee increases moisture above southern New York. Precipitable water values increase from around 0.30 inches to near 1.00 inch by the evening. Sporadic light warm frontal showers will likely begin overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. As the surface low and mid level trough pivot through the Great Lakes region Tuesday, models are indicating enhanced convergence along warm front. Locally, this could lead to relatively heavier rain rates Tuesday afternoon through the evening. Rainfall totals however are only between 0.10 to 0.50 inches. As the trough centered over Lake Superior becomes more negatively tilted Tuesday night into Wednesday, a secondary low develops over North Carolina. This low advances north and deepens over the Lower Hudson Valley. The dynamic mid level lift in combination with the already moist environment yields more rain expected Wednesday. Rainfall totals by the end of the event could be between 0.50 to 1.00 inches as the low moves further into New England. The latter half of the week is expected to be much drier and breezy starting Thursday following a cold frontal passage. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday fall into the 40s with mid 20s overnight. Friday being the colder of the two days. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions continue through the TAF period as high pressure remains in control. W to SW winds this evening will diminish to around 5-7 kt. Light and/or variable winds expected at outlying terminals. W-WSW winds around daybreak increase during the morning hours and become SW into the early afternoon around 10 kt. Wind direction may shift towards the south at coastal terminals after 19-21z. Winds diminish after 00z Monday. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday Night through Monday...VFR. .Monday night through Tuesday...Increasing chances of light rain, becoming likely by Tuesday afternoon with MVFR or lower. .Tuesday night...MVFR or lower with Chance of light rain. .Wednesday...MVFR or lower with Rain likely in the afternoon and at night. E-SE gusts 15-20 kt at night, mainly along the coast. .Thursday...Improving to VFR. W gusts around 20kt. && .MARINE... Winds and gusts remain below SCA levels in a westerly flow. In addition ocean seas also remain below advisory levels. However, long period southeasterly swells across the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet may result in seas near 5 feet at times into this evening. With only periodic seas near 5 feet will no issue a SCA. Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels across all the forecast waters tonight through Sunday night. Winds out of the southwest 5-10 kts Monday turn easterly Tuesday. Winds increase Wednesday to 10-15 kts as a low pressure system approaches the forecast area. Waves then rise to 4 to 5 feet over the ocean waters. As the low passes to the north Thursday winds shift southwest 15-20kts with occasional gust to 25kts. Waves over the ocean build 7-9 feet. Winds become more westerly Friday and maintain strength through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry through Sunday night. Long duration rain event begins late Monday through Wednesday night. Rainfall totals between 0.50 and 1.00 inches are expected. Instances of nuisance flooding may be possible within heavier rain bands. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJ/19 NEAR TERM...19 SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JE MARINE...DJ/19 HYDROLOGY...DJ EQUIPMENT...