000 FXUS63 KOAX 021937 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 ...Updated Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Key Messages: - Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will continue for the next several days. - Warm and above normal temperatures through the period. I feel like I'm writing almost the same discussion for the third day in a row here, but once again we have scattered showers and storms moving through the area as we have well-exceeded the convective temperature off our 12Z sounding (82 degrees). So far, they have been primarily focused along a convergence zone on either side of the Missouri River, but were also popping up sporadically elsewhere. There was also a vigorous shortwave moving through KS with more widespread precip. This activity will eventually work into the forecast area later this afternoon, but most guidance suggests coverage will be diminished, especially as we lose heating of the day. Once again, plenty of instability across the area (2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE) to yield some stronger or even isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds, but again a lack of shear will lead to unorganized, short-lived storms. They'll also be efficient rain producers with precipitable water values near 1.5" and could even lead to some localized flooding, especially if they move over areas that received heavy rainfall in recent days (e.g. northwest Johnson county in NE). Some additional storms may develop overnight and into Saturday morning again as some weak low level moisture transport points into the area and additional weak shortwave energy slides through. This pattern will continue into next week with daily afternoon shower and storm chances owing to diurnal heating and a few nighttime showers and storms as moisture transport strengthens and more shortwave energy slides through. We may start to see a little less coverage on some days as upper level ridging edges westward and settles in over the forecast area, but still plenty of warm, moist air to yield shower and storm chances. By the middle of next week, guidance is in decent agreement of a backdoor "cold" front moving in from the northeast, perhaps leading to more focused storm development for a change (i.e. less "random"). Still, guidance doesn't produce much in the way of QPF with this front, and shear still remains quite weak, so the threat for any severe weather remains low. Temperature wise, we'll keep seeing highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s outside of any locations that receive longer-lasting precipitation on a given day (lower to mid 80s for them). The cold front Tuesday/Wednesday does look to bring a slight reduction in daytime highs, but still looking like the 80s will prevail for most of the area once it passes. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 The main forecast concern will once again be on and off showers and storms, with MVFR to brief IFR conditions. Confidence is low in exact timing at any one TAF site, so highlighted window with seemingly greatest potential in a TEMPO group. There will likely be storms outside of this window, especially after at KLNK, but once again confidence is low on how long they'll last into the evening hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with scattered clouds around 6000 ft agl into this evening, with south to southeast winds around 10 kts and a few gusts of 20 to 25 kts at KOFK outside of storms. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...CA