000 FXUS63 KOAX 170242 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 942 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and mostly dry weather prevails through Saturday. Highs will range from the mid 70s to the upper 80s. - Increased chances for thunderstorms beginning early Sunday and lasting into Tuesday. Severe weather will be possible at times, especially Sunday evening and Monday. - The repeated rounds of storms may bring a threat of flash flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A nice, quiet afternoon was shaping up across the region with temperatures as of 2 PM in the mid to upper 70s. A shortwave trough was sliding through, but was bringing nothing more than a few clouds with surface high pressure dominating. Friday looks to remain dry, but warmer and a touch breezier as surface high pressure pushes east and low pressure builds in to the northwest, giving us strengthening southerly low level flow. Mixing should be plentiful with said winds and little to no cloud cover, so wouldn't be surprised to see temperatures overachieve a bit. Guidance currently has the area firmly in the 80s, warmest in northeast NE, but could easily see a few spots making a run at 90 degrees. Saturday also looks rather pleasant, though maybe a touch breezy again, with a small chance (10-15%) for some sprinkles as a cold front slides through during the day. Model soundings do show a fairly stout low level dry layer, though, which should prevent much from reaching the ground. Despite the front, still expect temperatures to top out in the mid 70s and 80s, though frontal passage timing will play a large role in exactly who sees 70s vs. 80s. The front looks to stall in or just southeast of the area by Saturday evening and then start working back northward on Sunday. Meanwhile, some shortwave energy will slide through Saturday night into Sunday, interacting with the front and bringing us shower and thunderstorm chances through much of the day Sunday. By Sunday afternoon/evening, low level moisture transport will really start to strengthen ahead of an organizing surface low over eastern CO. This could lead to some stronger/severe storm development, but lots of questions remain on frontal placement and instability across our area owing to the expected daytime showers and storms, so confidence on a severe weather threat in our area is rather low. A similar low-confidence severe weather scenario sets up for Monday with the front remaining in the area while a larger scale trough begins to approach the area and a surface low ejects into KS by Monday evening. Looks like there would be plenty of shear and instability for organized severe weather, but model soundings (for what they're worth this far out) suggest a fairly stout cap will be in place which may be reinforced by lingering showers and storms during the day Monday. Should be plenty of forcing with the aforementioned trough/low, but storms may end up elevated. A cold front will then slide through on Tuesday leading to continued shower and storm chances. So bottom line, there will be chances for severe weather in the area from Sunday evening through possibly Tuesday, but confidence is low in the details. The hazard we're most confident in right now would be flooding, simply due to the potential for repeated rounds of storms, but other hazards will be possible at times. We should see a break in the precip toward the middle of next week, but looking ahead, ensembles are in decent agreement that another system moves through by Thursday/Friday. Otherwise, temperatures will remain pretty seasonable with highs mostly in the 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 936 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected with mostly clear skies throughout the period and light southerly winds becoming southwesterly Friday morning. Gusts will increase to near 25 kts by Friday afternoon. A few passing mid and high clouds are possible Friday afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Kern