000 FXUS63 KMPX 282001 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 301 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of light wintry precipitation Friday. - Patchy fog likely overnight, primarily across east-central Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin. - Best chance for precipitation Sunday into Monday still looking like southern Minnesota. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 As expected, temperatures have remained capped close to freezing over the snowpack this afternoon despite the strong late-March sunshine. Meanwhile, temperatures have reached the 40s across portions of south-central MN where no snowpack was left after Monday's rain & melting. Dewpoints are very dry right now, but expect some snowmelt this afternoon is expected to create a shallow layer of low- level moisture as the boundary layer cools after sunset. As a result, patchy fog is likely overnight into tomorrow morning across rural areas of central Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin - where winds will be calm and skies are expected to remain clear overnight. Warm-air advection and increasing cloud cover begins tonight across western Minnesota, ahead of an approaching surface low out of the Dakotas. There is a slight chance that enough forcing is generated by the low-level warm advection overnight to generate patchy drizzle over the higher elevations along the Buffalo Ridge- which would could freeze onto roads & surfaces given the cold surface temperatures through tomorrow morning. Otherwise, any measurable precipitation is expected to hold off until Friday afternoon & evening as better forcing arrives with the low. Temperatures will be cool enough for a during of light snow across portions of central Minnesota, & northwest Wisconsin but elsewhere could see a few hundredths of an inch of light rain. Patchy freezing drizzle can't also be ruled out at times where temperatures are also cold enough for snow to fall. temperatures will vary widely across the area Friday, staying in the mid 30s across west-central Minnesota under widespread cloud cover & the best chances for precipitation. meanwhile, afternoon temperatures could research 50 across southern Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin as southerly flow increases in the warm sector of the surface low. Temperatures remain warm over the weekend with highs generally in the mid to upper 30s across western Minnesota and mid to upper 40s elsewhere. There remains a high amount of spread in the precipition chances for the system still expected to move through the mid-Mississippi valley during the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Deterministic models continue to keep the surface low well to the south of the area, near the IA/MO border, which keeps any precipitation out of the area expect for possibly far- southern Minnesota. Meanwhile, ensemble solutions have more of a northerly extent to the precipitation shield, despite also showing signal that keeps the surface low south of the area. Chances for at least some precipitation do look fairly high across far-southern Minnesota, but we'll have to keep the generic ~30% PoPs going elsewhere across the area until more consistency among solutions is evident. Temperatures look cold enough for accumulating snow if the precipitation moves through during the cooler nighttime hours Sunday & Monday night, but otherwise would fall as rain during the day. Generally warmer & quieter weather is expected through the rest of next week as upper level ridging begins building back into the central CONUS. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Clear skies and VFR conditions continue. SCT-BKN mid-high clouds will start to move in from the west overnight, gradually lowering over time. West winds become east across western MN this evening, with light NE winds in the east. Winds will be out of the ESE and increase to 10-15 kts late tomorrow morning. Some light snow is possible at AXN tomorrow morning, but impacts should be low. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI PM...VFR, chc MVFR/-RA. Wind E 15-20 kts. SAT...Chc MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SUN...Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind N to NE 5-10G15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...BED