000 FXUS62 KMLB 200211 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1011 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .UPDATE... After an active afternoon convection wise, activity is winding down. The front is currently located across St. Lucie and Okeechobee counties. Isolated to scattered showers are pushing into the local area from the west. Cell movement is towards the Atlantic around 35- 40 mph. Made a few adjustments to rain chances and cloud cover overnight and into tomorrow, otherwise, forecast looks on track. Current guidance is trending down for shower and thunderstorm activity overnight, so have scaled back PoPs, especially across the north, and have confined thunderstorm activity along the Treasure coast. Highest rain chances before midnight will be from Cape Canaveral southward (PoP 30-50 percent) with everywhere else having 20 percent or less. PoP chances increase across the south towards daybreak to 50-60 percent and across the north will be 20-40 percent. Skies will be cloudy overnight and into tomorrow, with overnight lows in low 60s across the north and mid to upper 60s across the south. && .Aviation... Generally VFR conditions outside of convection overnight before becoming MVFR/IFR after daybreak as low stratus and shower activity start back up. Current model guidance is trending downward for shower/storm coverage overnight, but kept VCSH/SHRA across all terminals overnight as isolated to scattered showers move across the state. Tomorrow will once again be active convection wise, with high confidence in numerous showers all day, but less confident with exact setup of thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. In general though, expect wide spread showers tomorrow, with thunderstorm activity in the afternoon before winding down in the evening with just isolated/scattered showers overnight. && .Marine... Ongoing showers, mainly across the Brevard county waters southward, moving eastward across the Atlantic waters around 35-40 KT. Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are around 2 ft. Current guidance is trending down for shower and thunderstorm activity overnight, but isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible through the overnight hours. Onshore flow tonight around 5-10 KT, with seas 2-3 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 62 76 63 83 / 20 70 30 10 MCO 65 78 66 84 / 40 90 40 20 MLB 67 81 65 83 / 50 90 60 30 VRB 67 83 66 84 / 60 90 60 40 LEE 64 76 65 83 / 20 70 30 10 SFB 64 77 65 85 / 40 90 30 10 ORL 67 78 67 85 / 40 90 40 10 FPR 66 83 67 84 / 70 80 60 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Watson LONG TERM....Sedlock