000 FXUS62 KMLB 060858 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 358 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 ...NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Current...Satellite imagery shows mid-high clouds from Melbourne- Orlando southward. Stratus/mist has begun to filter into the far northern CWA in light-moderate N-NW flow behind the departing surface low over the Atlantic. Winds should limit fog coverage early this morning, however patchy fog will possible, mainly north of I-4 through a little past sunrise. Today-Tonight... A short wave trough over the NE US will push offshore and out into the western Atlantic, allowing a mid level high pressure ridge to build northward into Florida from the Caribbean. At the surface, a large high pressure ridge will build over the eastern CONUS behind the rapidly departing Atlantic low. Light NW-N winds early this morning before becoming NE near 10mph veering to light ENE tonight. Mostly sunny and dry with near normal highs in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s, except upper 40s in northern Lake/Volusia, and upper 50-low 60s along the immediate Treasure Coast. Tuesday-Thursday...Mid level ridge will remain centered over FL and the GA Tue-Wed, then shifts east over the Bahamas through Thu night, while maintaining locally dry weather. Surface winds veer from E to SE and south through the period as high pressure along the SE seaboard shifts eastward over the adjacent Atlantic. This results in steadily warming temps from the L-M70s/50s-L60s Tue to L-M80s/L-M60s Thu. Friday-Sunday....Global model guidance has come into much better agreement with the timing of the surface and mid level features progged to impact Florida during the end of the week/weekend. A highly amplified pos-tilt mid level short wave trough crosses the MS Valley Fri night, acquiring a neutral tilt as it crosses the eastern CONUS from the Great Lakes to FL, moving rapidly across the state Sat-Sat night. Ahead of the mid level system, a pre- frontal trough will sweep across the peninsula Fri evening, followed by the actual front overnight into Sat. Differences still exist as to the precise timing of the FROPA, however the GFS is now only about 4-5hr faster than the ECMWF, with the front clearing the SE CWA between late morning and early afternoon. POPs 30-40 percent Fri afternoon-Fri night, with a slight chance for lingering showers early Sat (mainly south). Much cooler temps for Sat night/Sun as the strong post-frontal high pressure ridge builds into FL. Max temps Fri pushing well into 80s in increasing SW flow ahead of the strong cold front, dropping back to the 50s areawide Fri night behind its passage. Maxes in the 60s this weekend with widespread 40s for mins Sat night and 40s inland to L-M50s coast Sun night. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 Today-Tonight....Hazardous boating conditions will continue in the offshore waters through late morning, easing slightly in the afternoon, but remaining poor. Winds N-NE 10-15kt nearshore and 15-20kt offshore this morning, decreasing to 10-15kt across all the waters by afternoon, veering to ENE overnight. Seas 3-5ft near shore and 6-7ft offshore, but subsiding to 4-6ft by afternoon. Seas continue to east to 3-4ft nearshore/4-5ft offshore overnight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect beyond 20nm through 10AM, with Cautionary headlines likely needed through this afternoon. Tuesday-Friday...Moderate E to ESE winds 10-15kt through Tue night freshen slightly (13-18kt) as they veer to SE Wed, south Thu, and SW Fri. Seas 3-4ft nearshore and 4-5ft offshore. A few showers are forecast to develop north of Sebastian Inlet late Thu night, then increase in coverage and spread farther south Fri ahead of the approaching strong cold front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 350 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 Mainly VFR with patchy IFR CIGs and MVFR to IFR CIGs possible through 13Z in stratus/patchy fog, mainly from LEE-SFB-DAB. Otherwise, light NW-N winds becoming NE ~10kt this afternoon, decreasing to AOB 5kt overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 54 72 58 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 74 52 75 57 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 72 58 74 61 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 74 58 76 61 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 75 51 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 74 51 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 75 53 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 73 59 74 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ570-572- 575. && $$ SHORT TERM...Watson LONG TERM....Cristaldi AVIATION...Watson