000 FXUS62 KMLB 270736 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 336 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 .DISCUSSION... Current...Surface analysis depicts a broad trough covering the Bahamas and SOFL, with its axis near Lake Okeechobee. Scattered showers nocturnal showers continue to develop along and offshore ECFL, in the broad area of surface convergence associated with the feature. Satellite imagery shows skies are pcldy for the most part with temps in the L-M70s in most locations. Today-tonight...broad tough will shift steadily W-WNW across the central and southern peninsula today, reaching the eastern GOMEX this evening. Deep moisture will remain in place near/along the track of the surface trough, leading to scattered to numerous diurnal showers/storms today. Activity should get an early start (mid-late morning), given the ongoing activity and sultry air mass in place. Highest rain chances will once again be across the interior central and south (60-70), decreasing to 40-50 north and 30-40 along the immediate coast. Main storm concerns continue to be CG lightning and locally heavy rainfall, given slow movement. Clouds/precip will keep temps in the U80s-L90s, highest away from the coast. Most if not all of the diurnal convection will be west of the CWA by sunset, however, nocturnal redevelopment of marine showers is expected, some of which may move back onshore. Mins in the L-M70s except for some U70s along the coast/near metro Orlando. Tue-Thu...A seasonally weak subtropical ridge will extend over the w Atlc basin to the GA/SC coast. More notably, a deep fetch of easterlies will continue to supply ample moisture to the peninsula through midweek. A weak sfc wave moving across the Nrn Bahamas and FL straits should increase PoP locally during the day Wed and into Thu with a light onshore regime continuing and higher PoP favored inland where boundary interactions from both coasts favor the interior for deep diurnal convection daily. Storms wl not be too strong and locally heavy rain with lightning wl be the primary hazards. Extended...Bermuda high pressure wl slowly become more prominent across the Wrn Atlc just N of Fl by the weekend. Local flow wl vary from E-SE with plenty of avbl moisture for sct to nmrs showers and storms to develop daily. Once again the interior zones wl remain most favored for higher rain amounts in the afternoons with boundary interactions promoting areas of deeper convection. Temperatures should remain confined to seasonal normals with highs in the U80s to L90s and lows in the M70s. && .AVIATION... Spotty morning showers have stayed offshore or weakened as they approached VRB-SUA, and expect this trend to continue through sunrise/11Z. Debated adding tempo groups for the MLB-SUA corridor, however higher rain chances are expected just inland from the aerodromes, so just went VCSH for now. May need and AMD or two for brief TEMPO SHRA/TS there before activity pushes west of the corridor. Current TEMPO groups at SFB-ISM-MCO well warranted, and may consider for LEE as well late (22Z-01Z). && .MARINE... Today-tonight...E-ESE flow near 10kt will veer more to the SE as as the surface trough pushes well of the peninsula later today- tonight. Seas 3-4ft this morning in a 8-10s groundswell gradually subsiding back to 2-3ft tonight. Tue-Thu...Modest onshore flow conditions wl lead to rather uniform seas averaging 3 ft over the open waters through mid to late week. Seas around 2-3 ft closer to the immediate coast. Winds and seas will be briefly higher near sct marine based storms. Extended...Expect a continuation of an onshore flow conditions through the upcoming weekend. With the rather long fetch of easterlies some swell component can be anticipated, with seas expected to continue around 3 ft over most of the water segments. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 75 91 75 / 30 10 30 20 MCO 92 74 94 74 / 60 10 50 10 MLB 89 76 89 77 / 40 20 40 10 VRB 90 74 90 74 / 40 20 40 20 LEE 90 74 93 74 / 60 20 50 20 SFB 91 74 93 74 / 50 10 50 20 ORL 92 76 94 77 / 60 10 50 10 FPR 89 74 89 74 / 40 20 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cristaldi LONG TERM....Pendergrast AVIATION...Cristaldi