000 FXUS62 KMLB 161944 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 344 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021 .DISCUSSION... ...Cool Front To Bring Rapidly Deteriorating Boating Conditions To The Atlantic Waters Tonight... Current-Rest of the Day... After a few showers across the Brevard and Treasure Coast Atlantic waters this morning, the radar has remained quiet with dry conditions and partly to mostly sunny skies. A scattered deck of low to mid level clouds are streaming across the Florida peninsula this afternoon. The ECSB has formed and is slowly pushing its way inland. Onshore flow has decreased as the high pressure system over the local area has weakened. This in turn will allow the east and west coast sea breezes to push inland and meet across the interior later this afternoon. However, due to the relatively dry airmass over head, precipitation along the boundary collision is not expected. Warm and dry conditions expected for the rest of the day, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with partly to mostly sunny skies remaining. Tonight... A cool front will pass through the local area late this evening as a trough pushes eastward, dragging the cool front behind it. Continuing to expect this to be a mostly dry frontal passage due to the lower moisture over the area. However, there remains a chance for showers and possibly a lightning storm or two along the frontal boundary; first starting north of Orlando/Titusville through a little past midnight, then, continuing along the coast and mainly offshore overnight, as the front continues southward through the area. Winds veering northerly behind the front and increasing to around 10mph prior to daybreak. Will not see a relief in overnight temperatures just yet, as lows are expected to remain in the upper 60s to around 70. Although, mid-60s will be possible north of I-4. Sun...(Modified Previous Discussion) The cool front and associated band of moisture is forecast to be over southern sections at daybreak with isolated showers pushing south along the coast, roughly Cape southward. Drier air will overspread northern sections and skies will quickly clear there. Slight onshore component will keep some clouds along the coast and will hold onto a chance for showers in Martin/St Lucie counties into the aftn due to closer proximity of the Gulf Stream. Breezy north to northeast winds 15-20 mph, with a few higher gusts along the coast. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s with the highest temperatures occurring around Lake Okeechobee. Lower dewpoints across the north/interior will produce comfortable humidity. Lows Sunday night/Monday morning should dip into the upper 50s in northern Lake and NW Volusia counties with lower 60s across the interior and mid to upper 60s along the coast. These should be the coolest temps of the week. Mon-Fri... (Previous Discussion) High pressure building into the Southeast, as the weakening front continues southward into far southern Florida and the Keys. Locally, drier air with PWATs below 1" will keep rain chances out of the forecast all areas thru Tuesday. Very gradual moisture return may produce isolated showers across far southern sections Wed but even there most areas will remain dry. Moisture will increase from the SW late in the week as high pressure to the north pushes seaward and a weak front pushes into the deep South. Have shown a trend of higher PoPs, 20 percent north/30 percent south Thu then 40 percent north/50 percent south Fri. Gradually veering wind flow from NE to E as high pressure to the north shifts east. Temperatures will warm through the period, with highs in the low to mid-80s on Monday returning to the mid to upper 80s during mid to late week. Min temps will also tick upward due to easterly flow keeping mins in the lower 70s coast, while inland areas return to the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... Predominantly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Onshore flow will weaken ahead of the cool front passage this evening, allowing for a dry sea breeze collision to occur across the interior. Winds will be light northwesterly at inland terminals. Coastal terminals start with onshore flow around 8 knots behind the sea breeze, which will veer to northwesterly and east to around 4 knots through the evening. Not expecting significant precip inland along the front, but offshore showers and even a thunderstorm or two may be possible, so coastal terminals carry VCSH. Winds turn northerly behind the front 8-10 knots inland and around 15 gusting to 24 knots along the coast. && .MARINE... Current-Rest of the Day... A few showers earlier this morning across the Brevard and Treasure Coast waters has since dissipated, with dry conditions prevailing this afternoon. Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are 3 ft with NW wind around 8 KT. Winds will be northeast to northwest this afternoon around 5-10 KT before decreasing to around 5 KT or less and veering S/SE this evening. Seas will be 2-3 ft. Tonight... (Modified Previous Discussion) Rapidly deteriorating boating conditions late this evening, as a cool front passes through the local Atlantic waters tonight and into Sunday. Winds veering N behind the front, increasing to around 20 KT north of Sebastian Inlet by daybreak and 10-15 KT offshore for the Treasure Coast. Seas will begin to build, but will remain mostly 2-3ft, though 4-5ft will be possible offshore of the Volusia Coast towards morning. A Small Craft Advisory will take effect at 2am tonight for the nearshore and offshore waters north of Sebastian Inlet. Sun-Wed...(Previous Discussion) Hazardous conditions expected Sunday/Sunday night with N/NE winds 17-20 knots so a Small Craft Advisory has been posted for all the local Atlc waters. Seas 4-5 ft near shore and 6-7 ft offshore/Gulf Stream. Winds will veer NE around 15 knots Monday with seas dropping below 7 ft in the Gulf Stream but will likely need to carry a Caution headline there. On Tue-Wed, winds will veer a little more easterly 12-15 kt as high pressure translates eastward over the western Atlc. Seas subsiding 3- 4 ft Tue and mostly 3 ft Wed. && .HYDROLOGY... Light W to NW winds today will increase out of the N-NE tonight and Sunday behind a cool front. Coupled with autumnal high astronomical high tides, the St Johns River at Astor will remain at or near Minor Flood stage (around 2.3 ft) through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 80 63 81 / 30 0 0 0 MCO 70 85 63 84 / 10 0 0 10 MLB 71 83 67 82 / 10 10 0 10 VRB 70 86 68 83 / 10 10 0 10 LEE 66 83 60 84 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 67 82 61 82 / 20 0 0 10 ORL 69 83 63 83 / 20 0 0 0 FPR 69 85 67 82 / 10 20 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 10 AM EDT Monday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 10 AM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ Forecast...Watson DSS/ Impact Wx....Rodriguez AVIATION...Haley