000 FXUS62 KMFL 061119 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 619 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 The low pressure and associated front which brought the wet weather to eastern Florida this past weekend has departed to our NE. In its wake is high pressure building over the eastern U.S. down to Florida and the western Atlantic. This will help to bring a drier and slightly cooler airmass into the region early this week, with any rain chances confined to the Atlantic waters. Some patchy fog is possible early this morning over parts of the area, but this potential is somewhat mitigated by the drier air filtering in from the north. Some clouds may linger over the area today, but skies should become mostly clear by evening, and remain that way through Tuesday. Surface winds will gradually increase out of the NE this afternoon, and reach 15-20 mph on Tuesday. Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals early this week, with highs mainly in the 70s today, lows in the 50s/60s tonight, and 70s to near 80 on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 High pressure builds aloft over Florida during the middle part of the week as the longwave troughs remain over the western half of North America. This will keep the dry and mild weather in place through Thursday. Global models show the longwave pattern becoming more progressive by the end of the week, indicating a digging trough over the central U.S. Thursday which then moves eastward over the eastern CONUS next weekend. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move down the peninsula Friday, with the front passing through South Florida any time between late Friday night and Saturday. Models are rather consistent with the timing of the front, but still being about 5 days out, this can change. Based on current forecast timing, rain chances return to the area Friday and Saturday in the form of scattered showers. Exact time frame of the highest rain chances will depend on the timing of the frontal passage, but for now we don’t think there’s much potential for thunder or stronger convection associated with the front. Temperatures will start a warming trend on Wednesday and continue into Friday ahead of the front. Highs from the 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday will warm further Thursday and Friday as winds become SE on Thursday and S-SW on Friday. Highs are forecast to reach the mid 80s over western interior locations on Thursday, then spread across the peninsula to the east coast metro on Friday. Lows will show a similar trend, with 50s/60s Wednesday morning warming into the 60s/lower 70s by Friday. At this point in time it looks like a cooling trend is in store for next weekend, and exactly how low temperatures will go is still a bit uncertain. The spread in the range of 10-90% temperature probabilities from the latest global model ensembles as well as the blend of models (NBM) is as much as 15-20 degrees, reflecting the uncertainty in the timing of the front, the strength of the associated longwave trough, and southward extent of the continental air behind the front into Florida. Presently we’re leaning with the NBM forecast which is on the lower side of the spread and has lows in the 40s and lower 50s for Sunday and highs in the 60s to lower 70s, but stay tuned for updates as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. ight and variable winds early this morning will increase out of the east northeast to around 10 kts this afternoon. At KAPF, winds may try to shift to the north northwest late this afternoon as a Gulf breeze tries to develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 N-NE winds will be in the 15-20 knot range today, then NE-E Tuesday, with seas as high as 6 feet in the Gulf Stream and 3-4 feet in the Gulf of Mexico waters. Seas are expected to increase Wednesday and Thursday, occasionally reaching as much as 8 feet in the Gulf Stream due to a building NE swell entering the local waters. Wind and seas should begin to decrease late on Thursday and continue on Friday as winds shift to SE, then S-SW. Mainly dry conditions are expected through Thursday outside of a few Atlantic showers today. && .BEACHES... Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 A high risk of rip currents will continue at the Atlantic beaches at least through Tuesday, and probably for most of the week as onshore winds remain on the breezy side and seas/surf remain elevated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 66 77 68 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 80 62 79 64 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 79 64 78 65 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 80 65 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 77 66 76 68 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 77 66 76 68 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 79 64 78 65 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 77 64 75 67 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 78 65 77 67 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 81 61 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....Molleda AVIATION...Rizzuto