000 FXUS62 KMFL 271256 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 856 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 .UPDATE... A few isolated showers have moved onshore from the Atlantic this morning. Another unsettled weather pattern this afternoon and evening. Sea breeze driven convection will develop over the east coast and move slowly westward over the interior and Gulf coast. Additional convection will develop along seabreeze and outflow boundary interactions. Still plenty of moisture in the atmosphere with latest mesoanalysis having 1.7 to 1.9 inches of precipitable water. Main concern will continue to be for slow- moving storms producing heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has southern and southwest portions of the peninsula under a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. A few stronger storms may also be capable of producing gusty wet microburst. Afternoon highs will be around 90 degrees with heat indices in the upper 90s near 100 this afternoon. No major changes to the previous forecast. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 726 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022) AVIATION(12Z TAFS)... L/V winds will increase out of the southeast later today around 10 knots. For KAPF, winds will shift to the southwest this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the terminals on Monday afternoon and push towards the interior as the afternoon progresses. Periods of MVFR or IFR are possible in and around storms with short fused TEMPOs possible. L/V winds tonight. && PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 238 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022) .Wet Pattern Continues Over South Florida This Week Before A Little Bit Of Drier Air For Fourth Of July Weekend... .Increasing Risk Of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches Through Week Into Fourth Of July Weekend... SHORT TERM... (Today Through Tuesday Night)... A trough of low pressure will be moving eastward through the eastern portion of the United States allowing mid to upper level low to develop over the Western Atlantic waters and drift southwest towards South Florida. At the same time, high pressure in the lower levels of the atmosphere will be building westward from the Atlantic waters into the Florida Peninsula. This will allow for more of an easterly wind flow to start to set up over South Florida pushing the east coast sea breeze more inland while keeping the west coast coast sea breeze more near the west coast metro areas. Tropical moisture will still be in place over South Florida today into Tuesday keeping the PWAT values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range. Therefore, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will still be possible over the region today and again on Tuesday but the best coverage should be over the interior and west coast metro areas. The 500 mb temps will still be in the -7 to -8C range over South Florida today into Tuesday with the mid to upper level low drifting closer the area. This will allow for a few strong storms this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon over the western areas where the sea breezes collide. The primary impacts will be small hail, gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes. Highs will be around 90 over the metro areas with lower to mid 90s over the interior areas today and again on Monday. The heat indices will also be around 100 over most areas, except possible lower 100s over the interior areas. Lows will be in the 70s over most of South Florida, except around 80 east coast metro areas. LONG TERM... (Middle To End Of This Week)... The low level high will continue to build into the Florida Peninsula late this week, as the mid to upper level low will be near or over South Florida. This will allow for a moderate to breezy easterly wind flow over South Florida allowing for the east coast sea breeze to push inland each day while keeping the west coast sea breeze near the west coast metro areas. The There could be some dry air working into the region on Wednesday around the mid to upper level low but it will not last long as the deeper tropical moisture will work back into the region late this week. This tropical moisture will keep scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms going over South Florida for the second half of this week with the best coverage over the interior and west coast metro areas. The 500 mb temps will still remain around -7 to -9C for the second half of the week. This will still allow for a few storms to become strong especially where the sea breezes collide over the western areas of South Florida. The primary impacts will be small hail, gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes. The highs will remain in the lower to mid 90s except around 90 east coast metro areas, as the heat indices will still be in the lower 100s, except around 100 east coast metro areas. Lows will be in the 70s, except around 80 east coast metro areas. (Fourth Of July Weekend)... The mid to upper level low is forecast by the long range models to dissipated this Fourth of July Weekend, as the high continues to build into the Florida Peninsula from the Western Atlantic waters. This will allow for a little bit of drier air to work into South Florida from the Western Atlantic waters. Therefore, the coverage should be a little bit less compare to this week over South Florida with the highest POPs still over the western areas where the sea breezes collide. The highs will still remain in the lower to mid 90s except around 90 east coast metro areas, as the heat indices will still be in the lower 100s, except around 100 east coast metro areas. Lows will still be in the 70s, except around 80 east coast metro areas. MARINE... The winds will be southeast around 10 knots or less today into Tuesday before swinging more easterly and increasing to moderate to even breezy by end of this week into the Fourth Of July Weekend. This will allow for the Atlantic seas to increase less than 2 feet today to 2 to 4 by middle to end of this week. The Gulf seas will also be below 2 feet today slowly increasing to 2 to 3 feet by middle to end of this week into the Fourth of July Weekend. BEACHES... The easterly winds will be increasing this week into the Fourth Of July Weekend over South Florida. This will allow for the threat of rip currents to increase along the east coast beaches with possibility getting to high risk conditions by end of this week into the Fourth of July Weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 90 78 90 / 30 60 30 70 West Kendall 75 90 76 91 / 20 60 30 70 Opa-Locka 78 90 78 91 / 30 60 30 70 Homestead 77 89 77 89 / 20 60 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 78 89 78 88 / 30 60 30 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 90 79 90 / 20 60 30 70 Pembroke Pines 77 90 77 90 / 30 60 30 70 West Palm Beach 78 90 78 90 / 10 50 30 60 Boca Raton 78 91 78 91 / 20 60 30 60 Naples 75 91 77 91 / 40 60 30 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ Update/Aviation...Kelly Today through Tuesday and Marine...CWC Tuesday Night through Sunday...BNB Visit us at weather.gov/miami Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami