000 FXUS61 KLWX 060826 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 326 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front pushes through the region from the north early today. A strong upper ridge then builds into the region through the middle of the week as a surface high pressure moves offshore. Well above normal temperatures are expected across the region in the middle of the week. Next chance of precipitation comes later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A weak frontal boundary looks to be located just north of our region across southern PA. There isn't much of a temperature or dew point change to go along with this front, but moreso just a wind shift. Thus, not really expecting much precipitation out of this outside of some upslope rain/snow showers along/west of the Allegheny Front. Strengthening high pressure is pushing eastward in the wake of this frontal boundary and will push overhead this afternoon before pushing offshore tonight. All of this to say that many areas likely still see above average temperatures today given the lack of air mass change behind the boundary. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Quickly rising heights and high pressure moving offshore will result in well above average temperatures and dry weather on Tuesday. High temperatures may approach 60 across central VA and southern MD. Temperatures will be closer to 50 further north along the MD/PA border. By Tuesday night, a cold front will approach from the NW, but shouldn't push through until Wednesday. This boundary will approach from the north on Wednesday, but may struggle to push south given the strong high pressure off the southeast coast. Warm advection will bring temperatures into the low to mid 60s on Wednesday. Lows Wednesday night will only drop into the mid 40s with this warm air mass in place. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... On Thursday morning, low pressure will be moving into the Great Lakes. Isentropic lift ahead of this system may result in some rain showers, especially in northern and western parts of the area. Gusty south winds will push temperatures well above normal, with 60s possible across much of the area. The low will be weakening as it heads into the St. Lawrence Valley, so the trailing cold front may have limited shower activity associated with it as it arrives late in the day or overnight. It also won't result in much of a temperature change. A pair of digging shortwaves over the central US will eventually form a larger trough along the east coast heading toward week's end. Low pressure will likely form in response, increasing rain chances again at some point between Friday and Saturday. Above normal temperatures will be hanging on, so rain is expected areawide initially. As the trough axis arrives and cold advection begins behind the departing low, a changeover to snow will occur in the upslope areas of the Alleghenies. If enough moisture lingers into the cold air, some of the remaining ridges could see a brief changeover to snow, but at this time probabilities for accumulating snow are very low east of the Allegheny Front. Gusty northwest winds looks to follow on Saturday. There's still some uncertainty for this portion of the forecast due to the dynamics of the different moving pieces. An area of high pressure will move toward the area on Sunday. While it will be much cooler than the preceding week, temperatures will still be near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. A weak cold front will approach Wednesday, but likely won't result in any flight restrictions. Gusty winds are expected this afternoon though as a weak cold front pushes through from the north. Winds could gust up to 25 knots at times out of the NW. High pressure builds over the area, then shifts offshore on Tuesday, shifting winds once again out of the south to southwest at around 20 to 25 kts. By Wednesday night, the aforementioned frontal boundary will start to lift north through the region. This could bring sub-VFR CIGs. A cold front will approach Thursday with a chance for brief sub-VFR conditions in showers and low clouds. Southerly winds may gust above 20 kt as well. The next low pressure system may arrive on Friday, but confidence in timing and impacts is low. && .MARINE... A cold front is expected to cross the waters this morning, with SCA conditions returning from late morning through early evening. High pressure moves directly overhead tonight, leading to a period of sub-SCA winds once again. Yet another period of SCA winds is possible on Tuesday as the aforementioned high shifts offshore turning winds back out of the SW. Generally light onshore/SE flow is forecast ahead of a warm front Wednesday into Wednesday night. Stronger S flow is forecast Thursday likely resulting in SCA level gusts. Strong south winds will likely necessitate Small Craft Advisories on Thursday. A cold front will pass through late in the day or overnight, and winds should be lighter overall by Friday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CJL NEAR TERM...CJL SHORT TERM...CJL LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...ADS/CJL MARINE...ADS/CJL