000 FXUS61 KLWX 161828 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 228 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move offshore this evening. High pressure will follow for much of next week. Another cold front may move through toward the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A strong cold front was located near the I-95 corridor as of mid afternoon. A thin band of heavy (convective) showers and an abrupt wind shift from S/SW to W/NW marks this boundary. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph are most likely near and just behind the front through early this evening, though a few higher gusts even to near severe thresholds (58 mph) remain possible with the convective band as it nears and eventually crosses the Chesapeake Bay through about 6pm. A few gusts to near 50 mph can't be ruled out behind the front over the higher elevations as well, mainly above 3000 feet. Temperatures will fall sharply through the remainder of today and tonight, tumbling to levels more akin to autumn. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build toward the region through the second half of the weekend and into the first part of next week. Mainly dry weather is forecast, though an upslope shower or two is possible along and west of the Allegheny Front through Sunday evening in the wake of the departing front. Clouds will likely bank against the western slopes of the Alleghenies with diurnal cumulus east of the mountains beneath/behind the upper trough. Gusty northwesterly winds should prevail with gusts of 25 to 30 mph peaking during the afternoon hours each day. Temperatures will hover around mid-October norms: highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s to near 50 degrees (5-10 degrees cooler for the higher elevations). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Heights will rise as surface ridging builds across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. This will promote dry conditions with a warming trend. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s except for the higher terrain where temperatures will remain in the 60s. Low temperatures will be in the 40s to near 50 along the Chesapeake Bay, with some 30s possible in the elevated valleys of the Allegheny Mountains. By Thursday or Friday (depending on the preference of model guidance), the next upper-level trough and cold front will likely move through the region bringing the opportunity for rain showers. Cooler conditions are expected behind the front into next weekend as upper-level troughing may linger overhead. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A brief period of MVFR/IFR is expected through late afternoon as showers cross the region along a strong cold front. Winds are in the process of shifting to the northwest and will likely gust up to around 30 knots or so through early this evening. A few isolated higher gusts are possible, especially for the metro terminals. The wind likely subsides a bit during the overnight hours, but 25 knot gusts or so are likely during the afternoon hours Sunday and Monday as VFR prevails. VFR conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with lighter NW winds becoming S. && .MARINE... An abrupt wind shift to the northwest is imminent as a strong cold front crosses. Brief gusts to gale force are likely through late afternoon. Otherwise, 25 to 30 knot gusts out of the northwest should persist much of the time into early next week before gradually subsiding as high pressure builds in, though winds likely diminish some during the overnight hours over the smaller waterways. Winds should continue to decrease Tuesday and remain below SCA criteria Wednesday while shifting to the south. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tides will remain 1.5-2 feet above normal with minor flooding likely especially along vulnerable shoreline into this evening. A strong cold front will turn winds northwesterly causing water levels to decline sharply tonight, with near blow out tides possible during the second half of the weekend. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ016-018. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ011. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ057. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DHOF NEAR TERM...DHOF SHORT TERM...DHOF LONG TERM...CPB AVIATION...DHOF/CPB MARINE...DHOF/CPB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX