000 FXUS63 KLBF 022035 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 335 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible into late evening mainly south of Highway 2. An isolated strong to briefly severe storm or two is possible this evening, with damaging winds being the primary threat. Locally heavy rain is possible which could lead to minor flooding. - Unsettled weather continues Saturday into Sunday. The highest chances Saturday afternoon and evening with heavy rain being the primary concern. - Temperatures remain at or slightly above normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday through next Friday. An area of showers and thunderstorms developed this morning across central Kansas through south central Nebraska, which has progressed eastward. The line has bowed out across Kansas with recent isolated storm development across far southwest Nebraska. The recent CAMs this morning did not capture the convection across central Kansas into south central Nebraska, nor did the NAM or GFS. Existing boundaries will be the main focus for development into this evening. The main concern through mid afternoon has been brief heavy rainfall with storms in far southwest Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Tonight, an H5 low center over central WY with a trough extending southeast through the Texas Panhandle. Storms will be favored to develop ahead of this trough along the southern and central high plains. Ongoing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms currently south of I80 will continue to lift north this evening coverage could increase significantly if convection develop robustly across northeast Colorado and northwest KS. This could lead to locally heavy rainfall which could lead to minor flooding, especially across Perkins, Chase, Hayes and Frontier County. All activity is forecast to diminish and begin to end by midnight CDT. On Saturday the upper ridge center will drift westward into southern Manitoba Canada with the ridge extending south into the mid Missouri Valley. The upper trough persists across the Rockies into the Southern Plains. Deep moisture will remain in place across the Central Plains. Likely POPs by Saturday afternoon and evening across southwest and central Nebraska. Given the abundant moisture in place, this will be a favorable opportunity for some heavy rainfall to occur during the afternoon and evening. WPC does have a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across much of western and central Nebraska. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue on Sunday as active weather continues from the Southern Plains into the Front Range of Colorado. Sunday morning should be mainly dry, with the best chances during afternoon heating. Drier conditions are expected Monday through Friday as the upper ridge settles across the central U.S. Still, deep moisture will remain in place and there will be at least a slight chance for some locations mainly during the afternoon hour and evening hours each day. Highs hold in the upper 70s southwest to the mid 80s northeast Monday and Tuesday, then 80s area wide Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Low cloud deck should continue to rise into this afternoon, with a return to VFR area wide. Scattered thunderstorm development is then expected this afternoon and evening, though confidence in location and timing remains low. Have opted to keep TS at vicinity mention at KLBF for now, and will handle any TSRA inclusion with amendments as confidence grows. Thunderstorms will exit the area tonight, with increasing low stratus again into tomorrow morning. This low stratus deck will gradually rise into the afternoon. Otherwise, winds remain southerly through the period, with gusts of 20 to 25kts this afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roberg SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Brown