000 FXUS63 KLBF 140537 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1237 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 ...UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Satellite imagery shows the remnant circulation of an MCV moving along a surface boundary across north central Nebraska, generating clouds north of highway 2 and a few sprinkles from Alliance through Valentine. To the south, mostly sunny conditions prevailed. There was also some cooler air nosing into northeast Nebraska from the upper midwest. This combination was creating a big spread in temperatures with readings ranging from the lower 70s across northeast Nebraska, to the lower 80s near the Pine Ridge, to the lower 90s along and south of Interstate 80. There is some instability pooled south of the cloud cover and will have to watch for convective initiation along the surface boundary and southern periphery of the remnant circulation as it continues moving east. Lapse rates aloft are not very robust and there is some convective inhibition to be overcome so unless some significant surface convergence can present itself, believe the best chance for precipitation this evening/tonight will come from scattered showers/storms firing across eastern Wyoming and move eastward through the panhandle and into the sandhills. Also anticipate a bloom of showers/some thunder along the surface boundary across north central Nebraska as the low level wind field enhances forcing. Overall lack of instability and lackluster mid/upper lapse rates indicate the overall severe threat is low, though ample shear and steep low level lapse rates indicate an isolated wind threat is possible. Also, deep layer moisture transport will boost precipitable water values above the 90th percentile so may see some good downpours with any convection. Lows tonight look to be in the mid 60s. One more day of hot weather tomorrow as highs Sunday range from around 100 south of Interstate 80 to the upper 80s/lower 90s along the South Dakota border. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Short wave energy driven by enhanced upper divergence associated with a cyclonically curved upper level jet will help push a surface trof through southwest Nebraska Sunday night. The convective environment is more robust tomorrow night with surface based CAPE values of 1500-2000J/KG extending along the surface boundary and pooling in western NE/eastern WY. There will also be a triple point where the surface trof will intersect the boundary and help focus convection. With steep low level lapse rates creating an environment conducive to wind and enough instability to fuel vigorous updrafts, will have to watch for a severe wind and hail threat from some storms Sunday evening into Sunday night. Deep layer moisture advection will keep the airmass very moist with precipitable water values well above the 90th percentile allowing for efficient rain production and locally heavy rainfall. Given the best synoptic forcing will move from western Nebraska to a band generally along and north of the frontal boundary, unfortunately anticipate most of the area will miss out on significant widespread rainfall of an inch or more. Expect a good dose of precipitation will fall across the panhandle and northwest Nebraska early Sunday night, then become established in an axis from southern South Dakota into northeast Nebraska later Sunday night into Monday. However there is some uncertainty as to exactly where the band of heaviest precipitation will be as some guidance is showing a trend further to the south more into northern Nebraska. Will monitor trends in later guidance closely to better define the most likely area to see heavy rainfall. High pressure building down from the Great Lakes will then push the boundary to the south late Monday into Monday night, bringing a good chance of rain to the area especially east of highway 83. The axis of the upper ridge will be displaced to the west as a deep trof builds over the eastern US and reinforcing energy slides down across the High Plains from Canada during the latter portion of next week. This will bring notably cooler temperatures to the area with readings at or below normal from Tuesday onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Low clouds/patchy fog will overspread areas of southwest into central and north central through this morning. MVFR/locally IFR CIGs/visibilities will be possible through sunrise, with a gradual improvement to VFR through late morning. VFR conditions are then expected to then prevail through tonight outside of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will continue to translate eastward along the SD/NE state line this morning while gradually weakening. Additional thunderstorm activity is possible late this afternoon and evening, primarily for Sandhills and north central Nebraska terminals. Confidence in timing remains low, so will forego inclusion at KVTN for now. Otherwise, winds remain southeasterly through tonight at around 10 to 20kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sporer LONG TERM...Sporer AVIATION...Brown