000 FXUS63 KLBF 260527 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Broad long wave trough situated across the country with the upper low anchored over Hudson Bay. PV anomaly embedded in the northerly flow on the upwind side moving south across eastern NV with upper ridge building further upstream across the PacNW and wrn Canada. Prev area of lower level frontogenesis and subsequent lift occurred in an area of relatively unstable air aloft to produce weakly convective snow showers across the Sandhills this morning into early afternoon and has weakened and moved out. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 The aforementioned broad upper trough will become elongated from New England southwest into TX by late Wednesday as the southern most PV anomaly over NV will tap upper divergence associated with the subtropical jet over northern Mexico to develop a separate west-east jet segment which will pull eastward across the southern states. The northern end of the long wave has a much more substantial PV anomaly that will progress quickly eastward tonight across the Great Lakes. Based on the progression of the upper flow, skies will slowly clear across northern NE into the Sandhills this evening and overnight. Still an outside chance for a few flurries as stratus layer likely resides within the dendritic zone meaning any slight upward motion could produce a few snowflakes, however not including for the most part in the forecast tonight. In far southwest NE, there is some signal in short range ensembles (HREF, SREF) and individual model soundings that stratus may either hang on or redevelop late this evening. There may also be some potential for fog also based on short range model soundings suggesting the residual moisture from this recent snow will get trapped in weak flow under the nocturnal inversion. Don't have enough confidence in the fog development at this point and have not included in the forecast...yet. Have retained more cloudiness in the southern zones though overnight into early Wednesday. With better radiational cooling potential in the north lows will range from 0 to around 8 above across this area, while staying closer to average for this time of year (low teens) in the south. More sunshine is expected though the day Wednesday in advance of the next clipper system to swing through the area Thursday. With dry conditions highs Wednesday afternoon will be slightly above average for this time of year, typically in the low 40s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 The extended forecast starts with the next clipper quickly dropping out of Canada as strong upper height rises occur in the northern Rockies and PacNW. While there is a period of weak FGEN in the low to mid levels initially, saturation of the sub-cloud layer looks most favorable in the north and as such have mentioned light snow there. However the further south you go looks less likely for snow reaching the ground. With highs likely reached by early afternoon and north winds of 20-30 mph it will feel much colder. Highs look to reach the low 30s most places before becoming steady or slowly falling Thursday afternoon. Little if any snow accumulation expected at this time. From Friday through Monday looks dry as good ridging aloft builds and a warming trend ensues with good downsloping conditions favored. Temps will reach near to slightly above average for Friday as any remaining snow melts across the area. However high temps through the weekend into Monday will be 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year with dry conditions prevailing. There will be a fast moving clipper that drops through the area Saturday but other than a wind shift not much change is expected in sensible weather. A pattern shift back to a long wave trough situated across the western U.S. as the upper ridge rebuilds further west in the Pacific. A strong upper PV anoamly will drop into the Great Basin area by Tuesday morning. This becomes significant as a slight buckle in the subtropical ridge will allow for upper divergence to be tapped by this strong upper low to develop further and likely leading to a significant weather maker especially across the southern states for later in the week. However it's influence on weather across western and north central NE is uncertain at this time as the long wave becomes phased from central Canada into the southwest U.S. With split flow like this shown in individual models, the confidence any any solution at this point is low, and ensemble clustering is showing that quite well as the GEFS and EC seem locked in their respective ensemble camps. At this point it would seem a more southwest or southern solution would be favored based on how other similar systems have evolved this winter season. While low precipitation chances are included for Tuesday, the details concerning that precip is unclear at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1118 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Aviation concerns continue to focus on low-level stratus and patchy fog across portions of southwest Nebraska including the LBF/OGA/IML terminals. Latest NT Micro satellite imagery depicts expanding plume of low-level moisture. This is largely expected to remain entrenched across the same areas with only a gradual west to east shift towards sunrise on Wednesday. CIGs may bounce around between IFR and LIFR at LBF, combined with increasing potential for fog. Can't completely rule out the potential for seeing < 2 SM visbys at LBF just before sunrise but duration may be brief so will cover with a tempo for now. Moisture plume is expected to advect to the east by late morning leading to increasing visby and CIGs and an eventual return to VFR conditions. Gusty winds will be the next concern with peak speeds around 25 to 30 knots across southwest Nebraska. These winds will diminish by Wednesday evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Stoppkotte SHORT TERM...Stoppkotte LONG TERM...Stoppkotte AVIATION...NMJ