000 FXUS63 KLBF 042035 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 335 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 Key Messages: - A Freeze Watch will likely be issued tonight for the potential for freezing temperatures Friday night. - The wind gust forecast is for gusts to around 40 mph Friday morning but later forecasts may need to adjust speeds up. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 A weak cold front moving south through MT this afternoon will drift through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight with a fresh batch of Pacific high pressure building into the region Thursday. Wind speeds across ncntl Nebraska Thursday get a boost for speeds of 20 to 25 mph. Lesser speeds are in place south and west. The wind forecast Thursday leans toward the 500m AGL winds near 25 mph shown by the models. The temperature forecast tonight and Thursday is uses a middle-of- the-road approach for lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s. The models suggest mid and high clouds will be overhead which would limit the diurnal temperature range. The temperature forecast Thursday night leans on the faster RAP model for lows in the lower 30s to around 40. The strong CAA and resulting steep low level lapse rates make subfreezing temperatures Friday morning unlikely. Interest turns toward the progress and arrival of a major cold front. The associated 1034mb high pressure is across AK/NW territory this afternoon. The models have sped up the arrival time of the front by about 6 hr. The wind forecast gets boosted toward the NBM 50th percentile which is about 5 mph less than the 90th. Bufkit suggests the potential for gusts to 40 to 50 mph as the front moves through with the potential for sporadic stronger gusts. The culprit is a belt of 60-100kt winds at h700-500mb circulating through nrn Nebraska and PV1.5 sfc reaching down to near h700mb across ern SD. The wind gust forecast is for gusts to around 40 mph but BUFkit and the 12z HRRR suggest gusts to near 50 mph. Later forecasts may need to adjust gust-speeds up. There is little change in the projected FGEN the models show across SD which is the basis for a slight chance of showers mainly after midnight Thursday. Temperatures aloft could be cold enough for a brief changeover to snow across nrn Sheridan county. It is worth noting the front moving through tonight will scour out moisture below 800mb and this is the basis for the top-down saturation the model soundings show. Rain chances are limited to 20 percent for this reason and the nearly dry WPC QPF. Earlier forecasts followed the wetter ECM and CMC models for 20-40 POPs. The NAM, RAP, HREF and GFS show a drier forecast. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The faster arrival of the strong AK sfc high pressure system Friday also means a faster departure and the models show the high could be centered across KS/OK 12z Saturday. The feeling is there will be enough dry air, high pressure and light winds to foster freezing weather Friday night into Saturday, even if temperatures bottom out around midnight. The low temperature forecast Saturday is conservative for this reason vs the Guidance blend which is several degrees cooler. A Freeze watch will likely be issued tonight for this event. The rest of the extended forecast for wrn and ncntl Nebraska is very uneventful. An anomalous upper level low will form across the Great Lakes and James Bay as a nrn stream low absorbs a subtropical low off the Carolina coast and a separate tropical storm progged to reach New England in a few days. The result will be a blocked upper level pattern lasting into next week and uneventful weather across Nebraska. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 VFR conditions continue through tomorrow at KLBF as dry conditions and calm winds are expected. Across the north, some stronger winds are expected to develop by mid-morning Thursday impacting KVTN. Northwest wind gusts up to 25 knots are possible, otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CDC SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Kulik