000 FXUS62 KKEY 161857 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 257 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021 .DISCUSSION... Persistent rains from showers redeveloping over Old and Mid Town Key West around midday dumped 1.51 inches of rain here at the forecast office, while only 0.12 inch was recorded at the Key West International Airport on the eastern end of Key West (since 0100 EDT). Meanwhile, most Florida Keys island communities have enjoyed a sunny, warm, and dry day! At the moment, heavy rain has ended in the lower Keys, while scattered showers continue developing along a plethora of slow-moving, converging outflow boundaries across a swath of the lower Straits of Florida and extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some of stronger convective cells offshore both north and south of the Keys have grown into icing layers sufficient for lightning production. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the mid 80s, while current air temperatures in portions of Key West are still rain-cooled in the upper 70s. A regional view of geostationary satellite image animations from the visible channel show a decaying cold front moving southeastward from the Carolinas across the Florida Panhandle and over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Forecast reasoning remains similar to the previous cycle. The cold front will continue disintegrating as it approaches central and southern Florida later tonight and tomorrow. Prefrontal low-level flow will turn northwesterly and become increasingly difluent during the next six hours, which should allow the showers and storms currently over the southeastern Gulf to weaken and dissipate as convection allowing models indicate. However, our confidence is not high given the degree to which mesoscale circulations have influenced/disrupted local weather recently. Confidence is increasing in the onset of a significant northeast to east wind surge south of a continental high pressure area starting Sunday night-Monday. This surge should result in Small Craft Caution or Advisory headlines for much of the week. Rain and thunder chances will remain in the forecast, with highest chances actually toward the end of the week, when a richer moisture plume likely develops across the region. && .MARINE... No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories look increasingly likely for some Florida Keys coastal waters zones during the Monday- Thursday time frame. A cold front will approach the Florida Peninsula tonight, before decaying over South Florida on Sunday. A strong high pressure system will build across the Southeast United States Sunday and Sunday night. This will result in fresh northeast to east breezes for Florida Keys coastal waters Sunday night through at least Thursday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z Sunday afternoon. The best chance for showers will be in the first few hours of the TAF period at EYW, where VCSH is maintained. Confidence in exact timing and impacts is low and will be reserved for potential later TEMPOs and amendments. Light and variable winds will gradually become northwest to north this evening. && .CLIMATE... In 1889, the daily record cold high temperature of 73F was recorded. Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 85 77 85 / 20 10 40 40 Marathon 77 87 77 85 / 30 10 50 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...Kasper Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....MRR/AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest