000
FXUS62 KJAX 162000
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
400 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021


.NEAR TERM [Tonight through Sunday]...Scattered showers have
developed ahead of a cold front that was pushing into interior se
Ga this afternoon. Moisture and instability is weak but the 
chance of showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms will 
continue along and ahead of the front over se Ga early this 
evening...and across ne Fl until around midnight. Strong high 
pressure will build into the area tonight and Sunday with breezy 
northerly winds bringing cooler and drier air to se Ga/ne Fl. 
Temperatures tonight will fall into the 50s over se Ga and inland 
ne Fl...and into the low/mid 60s at the ne Fl beaches. With sunny 
skies on Sunday, temperatures will only max out in the 70s with 
much lower humidity.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday night through Tuesday night]...Large surface 
high to the northwest will shift east to the Carolina coast. A dry
and cooler airmass will prevail over the area with breezy onshore
winds at the coast. Nighttime temperatures will be cooler than 
average with lows falling into the upper 40s over se Ga and into
the 50s over inland ne Fl. Daytime highs will be near average 
October levels.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Saturday]...Surface high pressure to
the north on Wednesday will move east setting up a return flow
with increasing moisture late week. The chance for rain will 
return as a cold front pushes across the area on Friday as an 
upper trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. Surface high pressure
will build in from the nw on Saturday. Daytime temperatures will 
warm up ahead of the front, reaching the mid to upper 80s by the 
end of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move southeastward across the waters this 
evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible along and ahead of the front until around midnight.  
High pressure will build in which will tighten the pressure
gradient and increase winds/seas to Advisory conditions tonight
through Sunday. North winds will veer around to the northeast and
east early next week and decrease as high pressure settles over 
the southeast. 

Rip Currents: Low risk today will become moderate to high on 
Sunday due to increasing onshore winds with building surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A cooler and drier airmass will advect into the 
area tonight behind a cold frontal passage. Minimum afternoon RH 
values will be in the lower 30s over se Ga and inland ne Fl Sunday
and Monday. Winds will be breezy from the northeast near the east
coast. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  50  72  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SSI  59  74  56  75  57 /  20   0   0   0   0 
JAX  58  75  55  76  57 /  30   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  62  76  61  77  64 /  50   0   0   0   0 
GNV  56  77  51  78  55 /  40   0   0   0   0 
OCF  60  79  53  81  57 /  30   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday 
     for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach 
     FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. 
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to 
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to 
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina 
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. 
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&