000 FXUS62 KJAX 061103 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 603 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Patchy dense fog will develop through the predawn hours across eastern portions of NE FL, including the Jacksonville metro. Fog will mix out shortly after sunrise as light northwesterly winds develop. Amid weak cold air advection and a strengthening upper ridge, broad subsidence will result in fair weather conditions today. Temps will rise into the low and middle 70s away from the coast while a cooling sea breeze restricts highs at the beaches to the mid/upper 60s. Quiet weather continues tonight as flow turns onshore and cirrus begins to spill over the upper ridge. Drier airmass should limit fog development tonight and allow temps to cool into the low to mid 40s inland. Beaches will benefit from the onshore flow that will keep temps 5-10 degrees warmer. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Tuesday, mid/upper level ridging draped over the eastern seaboard will support surface high pressure northeast of the region near the Outer Banks of NC with onshore easterly winds and some low level clouds moving in from the Atlantic underneath thin cirrus clouds above. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s to near 70 at the coast. Wednesday, slowly increasing moisture is expected as surface high pressure to the east promotes low level flow aloft becoming more southerly over the FL peninsula. Partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds with highs warming well into the 70s with near 80 degree readings over north central FL toward the Gulf coast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Thursday, an initial shortwave trough will move from the mid MS valley into the OH valley and eastern Great Lakes which will support a weakening cold front at the surface that will drag into the FL panhandle area by late in the day with a few showers skirting into western portions of our area. The front will stall as the upper level support moves well north of our region Thursday night, allowing the cold front to stall just NW of the region from northern GA into southern AL with a weakening wave of showers moving into SE GA and the suwannee valley overnight with thunderstorm or two possible. Friday, a second more amplified mid/upper level trough will dig down into the lower MS valley and support a secondary dry cold front behind the stalled front, helping to drive the the initial cold front feature through the area by late Friday night into early Saturday with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. Sufficient bulk shear of up to 50 knots will be present to help tilt updrafts and sustain storms that should form, but the main question will be how much surface instability occurs ahead of the line to supply enough fuel for strong to severe thunderstorm formation. Saturday, much of the cold front should clear east of the area as high pressure builds in from the west northwest based on decent global model agreement. Elevated west to northwest winds will prevail across the area on the heels of the mid/upper level trough axis passing east of the region bringing cool air advection to the region with much cooler highs on Saturday compared to Friday under clearing skies. Sunday, high pressure will build to the north with a chilly start as lows fall into the mid to upper 30s inland. Elevated overnight winds from the north may prevent frost formation Sunday morning. Despite sunny and dry conditions through the afternoon, it will feel cool out as breezy northerly winds shift to the northeast. Temperatures will begin around 10-15 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday, then cool to around 5-10 degrees below normal next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 Fog has become localized and intermittent as a more abundant low clouds (around 5k ft) pass over area terminals. Temporary periods of MVFR/IFR fog remain possible JAX, CRG, VQQ through sunrise but confidence is waning. Any fog that develops will lift by 13z with VFR conditions and north-northwesterly winds 5-10 kts thereafter. Winds will shift easterly this afternoon as a sea breeze pushes inland. VFR conditions will continue with increase cirrus this evening as ENE to E wind decrease to 5 kts or less. Dry low levels will deter fog development tonight but guidance is suggesting that increasing moisture at SSI may lead localized and likely transient MVFR/IFR fog toward the end of the period. However, confidence is too low to justify a mention in this TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Dense fog across the waters has eroded with the arrival of north northwest winds early this morning. High pressure will move to the north Today and shift northeast on Tuesday. A high pressure ridge axis will extend across the waters Wednesday with winds then turning southerly and increasing Thursday in advance of a slowing cold front. After briefly stalling to the west Thursday, the cold front will accelerate eastward Friday and pass west to east through the waters Friday evening bringing a chance of thunderstorms with it. Strong winds will trail the front on Saturday leading to a period of hazardous small craft conditions. Winds will relax as high pressure builds from the northwest Sunday and to the north next Monday. Rip Current Risk: Moderate risk is expected at all area beaches Today. Elevated surf with 4-5 ft breakers are expected from St Augustine south. Moderate risk will continue through Wednesday. A powerful long period northeasterly swell will arrive Thursday resulting in a High Risk of Rip Currents. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 41 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 66 49 66 54 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 71 47 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 68 53 71 56 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 73 44 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 75 46 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$