000 FXUS62 KJAX 191859 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 159 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 .Short Term.../through Friday/... Coastal low will move North with the warm front Tonight. Showers will move north with this boundary, with much of the activity to the north by dawn Wednesday. High pressure will build to the east Wednesday, with an increasingly warm and moist south/southeasterly flow. A weak wave is expected to move north through the flow which, coupled with the warm and moist air will result in scattered showers across the region, and the potential for a few storms over NE FL. Temperatures will be above normal Tonight, then well above normal for Wednesday. Readings will be coolest Wednesday along the coast, where the SE flow will bring air across the cooler coastal waters. High pressure will remain to the east through Thursday, continuing the warm and moist flow. While a few showers can not be ruled out Wednesday night into Thursday, the chance looks fairly low at this point. Temperatures will continue well above normal through Thursday. The high to the east will weaken into Friday, as another high builds to the north northeast. As the high builds to the north, the flow will become more onshore. Precipitation chances will remain low into Friday, with temperatures remaining well above normal. As the flow becomes more onshore, readings could fall in the afternoon near the coast. && .Long Term.../Friday night through Tuesday/... High pressure will be to the northeast Friday night into Saturday, then to the east Saturday night. The high will move to the southeast Sunday, as a cold front moves in from the northwest. The current timing has the front moving through Sunday afternoon and evening, with much of the energy well to the north, so precipitation chances with the passage are on the low side. High pressure will build from the northwest Sunday night, then north Monday. A wave of low pressure is anticipated to move east across area Tuesday. The best chance for showers late in this period will be Tuesday, but chance can not be ruled out Sunday night into Monday as well. Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend through Saturday night, and possibly into Sunday depending on the frontal timing. Temperatures will trend closer to seasonal averages Monday into Tuesday. && .Marine... Coastal low pressure will slowly move north across area waters through tonight. An enhanced pressure gradient due to this low will produce elevated conditions. High pressure will build to the east Wednesday into Thursday. The high will build to the north Friday, then northeast Friday night into Saturday. A cold front will move southeast across area waters late Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will build to the Northwest Monday, then to the northeast into Tuesday as a wave of low pressure moves in from the west. Rip Currents: SE GA - moderate risk through Wednesday. NE FL - high risk Today, moderate to high risk Wednesday. && .AVIATION... The coastal trough and frontal system are both lifting north with isentropic lift occurring right over the Jacksonville metro fields and developing northward toward KSSI. Everything is on track this afternoon with ceilings between 1.2-2.5 KFT and visibility between 4 and 6 Sm in light rain and mist. With evaporative cooling and loss of diurnal heating expect ceilings to gradually drop to between 3 and 6 hundred feet overnight with visibility between 2 and 4 SM in -RA,-DZ, HZ, & BR late this afternoon into tonight. Overall not going to be a fun evening/night for general aviation from Jacksonville to Saint Simons Island. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 52 73 64 83 / 40 20 10 10 SSI 57 65 63 76 / 100 10 20 10 JAX 60 78 65 82 / 70 20 30 10 SGJ 64 74 63 79 / 50 30 60 10 GNV 63 80 65 83 / 50 40 30 10 OCF 65 81 64 85 / 50 50 30 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Duval- Coastal Nassau. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST this evening for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. GA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM. && $$ 23/Sandrik