000
FXUS63 KIWX 011153
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
653 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

A low pressure system was over southeast Kansas early this morning. 
This system will move northeast and bring rain across the entire 
area today. The wet pattern will continue into early next week 
with periods of rain. Snow may mix in with the rain at times 
north of the Michigan line but travel impacts are not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 237 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

A surface low a little above 1000 mb was over southeast Kansas.
Isentropic lift will spread over the area ahead of this system with
saturation and provide light to moderate rain over the entire 
area in the presence of a TROWAL into this afternoon. Rainfall 
amounts by late afternoon over far southwest Lower Michigan into
northern Indiana should be close to 0.75". Amounts over northwest
Ohio will be lower and should be close to 0.40". Initial concerns
for wet snow mixing into northern areas including far southwest
Lower Michigan have subsided with a somewhat warmer boundary layer
expected. Most if all of the precipitation should end by daybreak
as the system moves northeast out of the area and as milder and 
drier air at mid levels spreads east. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

A second upper level system (similar to the one today) will move
into the area Saturday night. This system will bring another 
round of rain to the area from late Saturday night into Sunday. 
After coordination with WPC and neighboring offices, have raised 
rainfall chances and amounts during this time given the latest 
model runs and trends. Once again, thermal profiles support just 
rain, but can not rule some wet snow mixing in at times near and 
north of the Michigan border. No travel impacts are expected. The
wet pattern will continue into the middle of this upcoming week
with more rain as subsequent upper level systems reach the area.
Given the lack of cold air able to reach the area, temperatures
should be generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal with highs in
the 40s to near 50 and lows near or above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Rogue gust to 35 kts at KFWA as warm sector/greater mixing makes
brief inroads into northeast Indiana. Focus of primary warm front
to establish close to KFWA today as cold sector flow begins to 
back across southern Lower Michigan/far northern Indiana. Overall,
most persistent IFR/LIFR conditions at KSBN within more 
backed/saturated boundary layer. KFWA to likely gradually devolve 
with time as low level moisture traps beneath mid level dry air 
intrusion. Timed some improvement late in period as frontal wave 
reaches western Lake Erie by about 01/10 UTC. 

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Murphy


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