000 FXUS61 KGYX 271347 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 947 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the area today, bringing widespread rain showers to the region. Showers start early across western areas, then spread east through the morning hours. Some of the showers may turn convective with a threat for locally heavy rainfall. The front brings cooler conditions to start the week, then a moderating trend is expected through the week as ridging builds across the Northeast. The peak of the heat is likely on Friday, then a cold front is expected to bring showers and cooler conditions this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 940 AM Update... Precipitation continues to move across our region on schedule with numerous showers entering Maine and New Hampshire as of 1345Z. Have made minor adjustments to temperatures, dew points and winds. Mesoscale models have the precipitation exiting the region during the mid afternoon hours with some sunshine to end the day. 655 AM Update... A few light showers over New Hampshire and up toward the international border this morning precede a swath of rain crossing the Green Mountains right now. Otherwise little change to the forecast besides to update for latest observed trends. Previously... A cold front approaches the forecast area this morning, driven by a trough of low pressure centered near James Bay up in Canada. Widespread rain showers accompany a pre- frontal trough out ahead of the front, crossing into the Connecticut River Valley around dawn this morning and tracking east across NH and western Maine this morning into this afternoon. PWATs soar to near 2" with this feature... providing fairly strong rainfall rates in spite of more favorable forcing remaining north of the area. In addition, modeled wind profiles show strengthening mid- level flow and short corfidi vectors... which suggests some threat of back-building / training is exists. These combined leave a non-zero risk for some ponding and/or minor, nuisance/ poor-drainage-type flooding although latest hires guidance isn't necessarily keying in on any one corridor for this to occur. The cold front itself will enter the forecast are later this afternoon and take most of the evening to finally exit through the waters. Moisture depth will be lacking behind the initial wave, as will upper level support, so I'm pessimistic about shower coverage with this feature... but there is some potential for convection given better lapse rates. It's worth noting that the HREF and hires deterministics aren't particularly enthused about organized convection this afternoon and evening either. All in all I have capped thunder chances at a slight chances for today, since I can't rule it out entirely... and current ENTLN plots show some lightning upstream. Otherwise, it will be a fairly muggy day today with clouds and showers ultimately limiting how warm we can get. High temperatures top out in the 70s, perhaps approaching 80 further west where better mixing arrives in time for some solar insolation. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A nice clearing trend is expected tonight with the cold front exiting offshore, the exception being over the mountains where upper level low pressure and upslope flow keeps clouds and a threat of light showers into tomorrow morning. It will no doubt be a more comfortable night with lows in the 50s for the most part and lower dew points. Tuesday will be nice. A light northwesterly breeze turns southwesterly during the afternoon with mostly sunny skies seeing a small bump in afternoon cumulus cover as a secondary upper level front drops through the area. Temperatures top out comfortably in the 70s to near 80 with some downsloping helping to warm more along the coastal plain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overview... The trough across New England gradually weakens on Wednesday and Thursday, allowing for a moderating trend through the end of the week. By Thursday, ridging builds and becomes dominant across the Northeast, and remains present into the Holiday weekend. A cold front likely crosses the area sometime on Saturday, with seasonable temperatures returning for Sunday and early next week. Details... Temperatures warm through the end of the week as the ridge builds into the area. A weak front crosses the area Wednesday night, bringing the chance for a few scattered showers, but no significant activity is expected. At this point Friday appears most likely to be the warmest day with highs warming into the the 90s across interior sections. Depending on the timing of the front, Saturday could be similarly warm, but the current indications from the ensembles of a passage earlier in the day would limit this potential. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms would likely accompany this front, with the thunderstorm potential limited by a morning-time passage of the front. Were the front to be delayed until the afternoon, more thunderstorms and higher temperatures would be expected. Despite the hot temperatures on Friday, dew points look likely to mix down into the 40s and 50s during the afternoon, limiting the threat of higher heat indices. By Saturday though, a more humid airmass arrives with dew points likely pushing into the 60s to near 70. High pressure and drier air then returns late in the weekend and early next week behind the front. Near normal highs are likely behind the front on Sunday, and then seasonable warmth returns early next as the airmass moderates. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR this morning gives way to restrictions in SHRA for all terminals today and a front crosses the area. Ceilings will lower first in the west by around dawn... and then further east during the mid-day hours. I expect MVFR ceilings to prevail for the most part... except at KRKD where a marine fog/stratus bank may bring in LIFR, and briefly IFR in other locations with downpours. Visibilities likely bounce between VFR/MVFR/IFR with potential for +RA. Southerly winds meanwhile are expected to be in the 10-20 kt range. Improvement to VFR and a wind shift out of the west are expected during the afternoon for western terminals and during the evening further east, with potential for IFR/LIFR to hang on at KRKD until tonight. Other than some patchy fog potential tonight, VFR prevails into tomorrow when winds will be light out of the northwest... veering southwesterly along the coast during the afternoon. Long Term...Generally VFR conditions are expected for mid to late week. Showers are possible Saturday, but then mainly VFR conditions return for Saturday night through early next week. && .MARINE... Short Term...Southerly flow increases to 25-30 kts today ahead of a cold front with increasing shower activity and potential for fog to pull into the waters. The cold front crosses the waters tonight with winds diminishing and backing toward the west... and seas diminishing below 5 ft by dawn. High pressure builds back toward the Gulf of Maine on Tuesday with light winds taking on a more southerly clip. Long Term...Generally tranquil conditions are expected as high pressure remains across the waters for Wednesday and Thursday. SCA conditions are possible in southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front on Friday and Saturday. && .EQUIPMENT... The KGYX WSR-88D is currently inoperable due to a mechanical failure. A return to service is estimated to be Monday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151- 153. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Clair