000 FXUS61 KGYX 061200 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 700 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front crosses the area early this morning followed by high pressure building in from the west. Low pressure well offshore of the Carolinas deepens as it tracks into the open Atlantic with breezy northerly winds developing between this system and the area of high pressure. High pressure maintains quiet weather tonight into Tuesday before another front crosses Tuesday night. The second half of the week into the weekend looks unsettled as an upper trough approaches from the west with a couple of low pressure systems taking aim at New England. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 7 AM Update... No significant changes to going forecast with minor tweaks to T/Tds to capture the latest observed trends. Previously... A weak cold front crosses the forecast area early this morning bringing scattered snow showers in the mountains through daybreak. A narrow axis of high pressure builds in from the west this afternoon while low pressure well offshore deepens as it tracks northeastward into the north Atlantic. The gradient between these systems will shift winds out of the north with gusts 20-30 mph with higher gusts along the coast. Despite the cold frontal passage and northerly winds, it will be mild today with highs in the 30s north to mid 40s south. Low clouds will persist in the mountains this morning with these clouds thinning in the afternoon. There will be a mix of low and mid level clouds south of the mountains early this morning with a mix of clouds and sun later this morning and early afternoon with mainly high clouds streaming over head along the coast from the offshore low pressure system. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... High pressure crests over the area tonight into Tuesday morning for mostly clear skies. Northerly winds look to be elevated enough to limit optimal radiational cooling, although it will still be cold with lows near zero across the north to the teens across the south. Tuesday will be cooler with highs ranging from the upper 20s north to mid 30s south. Skies will be mostly sunny through the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon as low pressure tracks across southern Quebec. This system will bring increasing chances for snow showers across northern and western zones late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overview: A negatively tilted trough will swing across New England on Tuesday night with an associated surface cold front. This front will bring a brief period of light snowfall to much of the region before ending south of the mountains overnight. Across the mountains and far north snow will likely linger through the first half of Wednesday morning. Broad ridging will then build across the region later Wednesday through Thursday before another storm system approaches from the southwest Thursday night, bringing another round of wintry precipitation. Another system may then impact the region this weekend. Temperatures will generally remain above average through the period. Impacts: Locally slippery travel conditions are possible Tuesday evening through the overnight hours due to a period of light snow. Forecast Details: A negatively tilted 500 mb trough axis and associated surface cold front in association with closed low near Hudson Bay will quickly move across New England on Tuesday evening, bringing a period of light snowfall to much of the region. The fast movement of this front will limit QPF amounts and this combined with poor (<10:1) SLRs and marginal temperature profiles will likely limit snowfall amounts, especially south of the foothills. Despite this, even the current forecast amounts of generally 1-2" will likely lead to locally slippery travel conditions late Tuesday evening through the overnight hours. Some rain may mix in at times in southern NH and perhaps coastal ME and there is a non- zero threat for spotty freezing drizzle/rain as a dry slot moves into the DGZ. Any mixed precipitation is expected to be very spotty in nature and after the snowfall, and therefore no additional significant impacts are likely. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower 20s across the north to the lower 30s in southern NH and coastal ME. Snow or mixed wintry precipitation will be nothing but a memory by Wednesday morning for most, although lingering snow showers are likely to continue across the north/mountains due mainly to upslope flow. We will otherwise see increasing sunshine south of the mountains with downsloping flow with highs remaining well above normal into the lower to middle 40s. Upper level ridging will then increase on Wednesday night with clouds gradually increasing again as the surface flow becomes more southwesterly. Low temperatures will be into the teens to 20s. Another mainly dry day is expected on Thursday as the ridge axis moves directly overhead but with the increased cloudiness highs will primarily be limited to the 30s. Precipitation chances then look to increase again on Thursday night through at least part of Friday as an occluded stacked low pressure system crosses through the Great Lakes and in doing so pushes a series of fronts northward through New England. This looks to be another potential mixed bag of precipitation type system with perhaps snow on the front end before increasing WAA aloft and eventually at the surface makes things messy. Changes are inevitable at this range though so for now would just plan for another potential period of wintry precipitation during the Thursday evening to Friday timeframe. Another system may then approach this weekend, although some guidance indicates that this system may still miss the region and therefore forecast confidence is rather low. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR today through Tuesday. Northerly winds increase this afternoon with gusts to 20 kts with a few hours of LLWS possible along the coast just after sunset this evening. Winds relax tonight and then increase out of the SE late Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. Long Term...A cold front will cross through the region on Tuesday night bringing a period of -SN to interior TAF sites with -RASN at KMHT, KPSM, and possibly KPWM/KRKD. There is a low end chance for spotty PL/-FZDZ across mainly interior TAF sites as the SN/RA ends but forecast confidence in this is low. This precipitation will be accompanied by MVFR and potential IFR restrictions, especially across northern NH and ME. VFR returns for most on Wednesday, although upslope -SHSN and lower CIGS may linger until the afternoon at KHIE. After VFR conditions during the day on Thursday another system then looks to impact the area Thursday night into Friday with additional wintry precipitation and possible restrictions. && .MARINE... Short Term... 12Z Update...SCA has been allowed to expire and have now converted the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for the outer waters and Pen Bay and have issued a SCA for Casco Bay for this afternoon into tonight. Previously... Low pressure deepening well east of the waters will bring increasing northerly winds with Gales likely late this afternoon into tonight along the outer waters and Pen Bay. Winds drop below SCA thresholds Tuesday morning while seas run close to 5 ft along the outer waters. Long Term...A cold front will cross over the waters on Tuesday night into early Wednesday with SCA conditions likely due to increasing southwesterly flow and seas across the outer waters of 6-10 ft. High pressure then builds in for both Wednesday and Thursday, allowing for a period of weaker winds. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ153. && $$ NEAR TERM...Schroeter SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Tubbs