000 FXUS63 KDLH 021922 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 222 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Summary: The warm conditions with isolated to scattered diurnal convection will persist through the weekend before trending cooler and drier for the middle of next week in the wake of a cold front. High pressure was in control across the eastern CONUS into eastern Canada. A warm frontal boundary was analyzed north of the International Border Border from southern Saskatchewan to northern Maine. An area of convection was located over the western UP of Michigan into northern Wisconsin in association with an MCV from last night's convection. As temperatures warm into the 80s and lower 90s away from Lake Superior this afternoon with dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s, CAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg is forecast to develop across much of the region per RAP forecasts. With little in the way of forcing, widespread isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening and activity has already begin to blossom across northwest Wisconsin and along the St. Louis/Lake County border. CAM and HREF trends favor northwestern Wisconsin and areas of Minnesota outside of the Arrowhead as the main locations for convective activity today. Per the 12z INL RAOB, shear remains pathetic with only 10 knots observed. This will again lead to short-lived storms with little severe potential as storms will be vertical and will quickly cut off their updrafts. Some isolated hail to around 3/4 of an inch will be possible in stronger cells. PWATs remain in excess of 1.25" in the area, so any storms will have the potential for heavy downpours, especially with slow movement expected. The flooding threat will be minimized, however, buy the short duration of the storms. This activity is expected to diminish late this evening with generally dry conditions for the overnight hours. Similar conditions are expected for Saturday and Sunday before a backdoor cold front pushes through the region on Monday. This front looks to bring potentially better chances for showers and storms as it moves through. Dry and cool high pressure will then take over for the middle of the week with highs in the 70s and lower humidity. Some 80s start to creep back into the forecast by Thursday in western areas. The lower RH values and breezy winds on Tuesday may lead to near-critical fire weather conditions across much of the area. Looking towards the end of next week, global models have been fairly consistent in bringing a cold front through the region in the Friday into Saturday time frame. This looks to be the best organized system that has crossed the region over the last few weeks and may bring some of the best rain chances we've seen in awhile. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 VFR conditions are currently place across most of the region and are expected to prevail for most of the upcoming period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop for this afternoon and evening. Areas with highest confidence have been treated with VCTS. Should a storm move over a terminal, small hail and gusty winds will be possible for a brief period. Fog is expected to push in from Lake Superior again tonight. There is still some uncertainty as to if it will reach to KDLH, but have introduced a period of IFR conditions with this update. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 Dense fog will persist over much of western Lake Superior into Saturday with indications that it may linger into Sunday as well before clearing. Winds will generally be northeasterly Saturday at 5 to 15 knots before becoming variable onshore at 5 to 10 knots on Sunday. A cold front works through on Monday bringing stronger winds to 25 to 30 knots and likely small craft conditions. Chances for showers and storms will persist into this evening and again tomorrow evening, mainly along the South Shore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 53 77 54 81 / 20 20 10 20 INL 61 89 62 88 / 20 20 20 50 BRD 62 88 62 89 / 30 30 20 20 HYR 59 91 59 90 / 30 20 10 20 ASX 49 74 49 80 / 20 20 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...BJH MARINE...BJH