000 FXUS62 KCHS 271414 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1014 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall near the area Tuesday and Wednesday, then dissipate late in the week. A surface trough will move in from the southeast Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: A strong and deep layered anticyclone aloft centered in Texas will extend across the local region through the day. The associated subsidence will prevent much of the area from getting any much needed rainfall again today. That said, there will be a few places that will receive at least a little rainfall. The first will be coastal southeast Georgia, where a weak inverted trough near the coast, that transitions into the sea breeze, will generate at least isolated convection over McIntosh and coastal Liberty County into the early afternoon. This region has the best overlap of MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg (highest on the forecast area) and low level convergence. The second region that could get some convection would not be until mid or late afternoon along parts of the northwest tier in association with a northeast-southwest aligned surface trough. Since there will be an increase in both low level thickness and 850 mb temps, we anticipate temps this afternoon be to a bit warmer than the past few days. Tonight: Overnight, the front is expected to make steady progress and become aligned right across the forecast area by sunrise Tuesday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 2 inches and convergence along the frontal zone should be enough to produce some risk for late night showers and thunderstorms. Most model solutions still keep the bulk of the activity just to the north, so we have limited rain chances to the 20-30 right around sunrise Tuesday. Lows should fall into the low to mid 70s in most locations. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak upper trough will settle over the eastern United States Tuesday and Wednesday while a cold front stalls across southeast SC/GA. Deep moisture will spread into the area with PWs rising above 2". Rising surface dewpoints will result in greater instability on Wednesday compared to Tuesday. Prevailing onshore flow will allow a progressive sea breeze to move inland each day. There should be ample forcing for convection both days, especially across inland areas where the sea breeze and the stalled front interact. Atlantic high pressure will begin to rebuild on Thursday, though plenty of moisture will remain in place and the upper ridge axis will remain north of the area. Scattered daytime convection expected, especially over inland southeast Georgia. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Guidance is trending wetter for late week into the weekend. As a deep layered Atlantic ridge builds, a surface trough is forecast to drift into the area from the Atlantic coincident with deep moisture. A weak upper trough pattern over the Eastern Seaboard should support scattered to numerous showers and tstms each day. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Tuesday. It appears that the best chance for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon will be well inland of the TAF sites. Late tonight, the chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase. If showers and storms were to develop, they would likely be closest to KCHS and KJZI. Confidence in impacts isn't particularly high, so we did not mention anything with the 12z TAF's. Extended Aviation Outlook: Decent coverage of showers and tstms expected Tuesday through Friday, especially during the daytime. Brief flight restrictions possible as a result. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: Southeasterly flow is expected by the afternoon with wind speeds mostly in the 10-15 knot range. Some slightly stronger winds will be possible along the land/sea interface thanks to the influence of the sea breeze. Late tonight, southerly winds will prevail with speeds around 10 knots. Seas should average 2-3 feet. No marine concerns are expected through the weekend with conditions forecast to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds will be 15 knots or less and seas 2-4 feet. Rip Currents: Recent reports from the nearshore buoys has been showing 2 or 3 foot swells every 9 or 10 seconds. If this trend continues we might need to raise the rip current risk to Moderate. We continue to monitor. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...BSH/JRL MARINE...