000 FGUS71 KCAR 110755 ESFCAR MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-180800- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 355 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE... This is the eleventh Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024, issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the two week period of April 11th through April 25th, 2024. Ice jam threat is over for the 2024 season on all river basins. The potential for open water flooding is Above Normal across Downeast, East-Central Maine, Bangor Region, Moosehead Region and into Eastern Aroostook County including the Aroostook River Basin. The potential for open water flooding is Normal across the North Woods, St. John, Allagash & Fish River basins in Northern Maine. ...LAKE ICE THICKNESS... Lake ice is extremely dangerous, do not venture onto the ice. For more information on ice safety visit the Maine Warden Service website www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing- boating/fishing/ice-safety- tips.html For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be in graphical format on our website www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook ...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER... El Nino has continued to weaken although its influence has remained as an active subtropical jet stream has continued to advance moisture laden low systems into the Northeast. This active trend looks to continue for awhile longer but with some shifting in the low track pattern. A moderate strength El Nino remained as of 08 April 2024 with a +1.2 Celsius Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly observed in the Nino 3.4 region. The latest three month average from January-March 2024 was +1.5 Celsius. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies were cooling most notably in the far eastern Pacific and were expanding across the equatorial Pacific. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been negative and been promoting blocking and troughing is forecast to turn more neutral along with the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Meanwhile the Pacific North American (PNA) is forecast to become more negative which would promote more troughing in the western CONUS. This setup would tend to favor weak ridging across the southeastern U.S. and mean troughing from the central into the western CONUS. Overall, this setup favors a southwesterly flow of milder air into the Northeast with a low track generally favored to be west of Maine. The official National Weather Service 6 to 14 day Outlook for 16-24 April 2024 leans towards likely above normal temperatures and near normal to above normal precipitation. $$ Sinko