000 FXUS61 KCAR 271352 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 952 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area today and move off the Downeast coast tonight. It will be followed by high pressure building in from the west through Wednesday. A cold front crosses the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A warm front approaches from the southwest late Thursday, then lifts to the northeast on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM Update: Mostly sunny skies are currently occurring across Washington County, while rain and embedded isolated thunderstorms move into the North Woods and Saint John Valley. Temperatures Downeast have already exceeded the forecast highs, so temperatures were increased by several degrees. Sky cover was also lowered over Downeast. Coverage of fog is currently very limited across the waters, so areas of fog was downgraded to patchy fog for the day today. Previous discussion: A cold front working across Quebec is still west of the Saint Lawrence River valley early this morning. The front will push to the western Maine/Quebec border by around midday or early afternoon and will slow down late today and into tonight as it works south and into the Gulf of Maine. Most of the precipitation will be ahead of the front and will be working into western sections of the FA early this morning moving east to Caribou/Presque isle by around midday. By late afternoon/early evening northern and western sections of the area will have dried out and will likely even see some breaks of sun. Showers will likely continue into the evening along the Downeast coast. The front does really slow up, and it is possible that showers could continue along coastal Washington County until at least midnight. Much cooler/drier air to the north with clearing. The convective potential is not great with very poor mid and upper level lapse rates, scant cape, and Show Walter index of +1 to +3. Isolated convective elements are certainly possible with isolated thunderstorms. Given that the PWATs approach 2" ahead of the front local heavy downpours are possible. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region on Tuesday as the previous cold front slowly crosses the Gulf of Maine. Skies will clear under the subsidence, and temperatures will remain around average for this time of year. Ensemble guidance is in close agreement as far as temperatures are concerned under this ridge, and average temperatures are likely to carry through Tuesday night into Wednesday as well. A cold front will approach from the west late in the day on Wednesday. Moisture ahead of the front will be enough such that diurnal heating may lead to the development of isolated showers prior to the fropa. The GFS does show some pockets of CAPE aloft across the north during this time, and the NBM has highlighted this region with the slight chance for thunder. Though convective showers themselves will be isolated, a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The cold front will cross the state Wednesday night, with precipitation remaining showery at best and little total rainfall expected. There will be a brief break in the action on Thursday, prior to a warm front lifting northwards late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. This front will remain dry, with the main feature of the boundary being a southerly shift in wind direction as it passes by. These southerly winds will advect warm air into the region, and combined with partly cloudy skies through the day on Friday, will lead to the chance for another above average temperature day on Friday. Current forecast is for the majority of the forecast area to reach into the 80s, with the Central Highlands potentially reaching up into the upper 80s. Relief from the heat will come with the next cold front, progged to cross the region early next weekend. Current guidance indicates the surface boundary will likely pass through our forecast area sometime during the day on Saturday, though at this time range uncertainty does remain in exactly when the boundary will move through. The GFS brings the front through a little faster than the Canadian and Euro deterministic models do. The same can be seen in the ensemble spreads, with the GEFS having a slightly weaker ridge to the east allowing for the upper level trough to dig into New England a bit quicker than other ensemble blends. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR this morning will lower to MVFR at KBHB this morning then other terminals this afternoon in showers. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Conditions improve to VFR this evening at the northern terminals, and to VFR at the Downeast terminals either late this evening or overnight. South wind 10 to 15 knots today with a few higher gusts. The wind will veer into the west and diminish to around 5 knots tonight. LLWS this afternoon into this evening at the Downeast terminals. SHORT TERM: Tuesday - Tuesday night: VFR across all terminals. Brief MVFR/IFR possible at BGR/BHB in patchy fog. Winds W to NW at 5 to 10 kts gusting 15 to 20 kts. Winds becoming light overnight. Wednesday: VFR across all terminals. Winds shifting S at 5 to 10 kts gusting 15 to 20 kts. Wednesday night: Mostly VFR, with occasional MVFR in rain showers. Light winds shifting NW. Brief MVFR/IFR possible at BGR/BHB in patchy fog. Thursday: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts. Thursday night: VFR. Light winds shifting S. Friday: VFR, with ceilings at northern terminals decreasing to MVFR through the day as rain moves in from the north. S winds 10 to 15 kts gusting to 20 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is out through 6 p.m. EDT this evening. It is very marginal, and given the time of year gusts may have a tough time reaching 25 knots, but seas may build to around 5 ft on the outer waters. The wind and seas will both be below SCA levels tonight. Patchy fog is expected until a cold front pushes south of the waters tonight. Locally poor visibility is possible at times. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory levels through the end of the week, though wind gusts may begin to increase towards 25 kts late in the day on Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. With lighter winds in place this week, there is a chance for dense fog each night this week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/MStrauser Short Term...AStrauser Long Term...AStrauser Aviation...CB/MStrauser/AStrauser Marine...CB/MStrauser/AStrauser