000 FXUS61 KCAR 061236 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 736 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today. High pressure will cross the region tonight. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. High pressure will cross the region early Thursday, with low pressure then approaching late Thursday and passing through the area on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update... Have updated to adjust for current conditions, mostly temperatures. Have also allowed the Small Craft Advisory to expire and issued a Gale Warning for all the waters in effect from 5 PM this afternoon through 5 AM Tuesday. Previous Discussion... Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes early today, with high pressure starting to build across the region late. High pressure then builds across the region tonight. Expect a chance/slight chance of light snow across mostly northern and central areas early today with the exiting low. Light snow will then taper to snow showers before ending. Any additional snow accumulations this morning will be less than an inch. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies this morning with clouds then decreasing this afternoon. Expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies early tonight, with clear/mostly clear skies overnight. High temperatures today will range through the 20s north, to the upper 30s interior Downeast with upper 30s to around 40 along the Downeast coast. High pressure will bring favorable conditions for radiational cooling to much of the region tonight, though the pressure gradient between building high pressure and an ocean low located well southeast of the Gulf of Maine will support slightly stronger winds across Downeast areas. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from around 5 below zero to around 15 below zero north, to the single digits above zero interior Downeast with around 10 above along the Downeast coast. Locally colder temperatures are possible regionwide tonight, particularly across the normally colder northwest valley locations. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The ridge of high pressure will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday, though one more day of high pressure is expected. As the ridge axis leaves the area, cloud cover will begin to increase through the afternoon ahead of the next system. High temperatures on Tuesday will be around normal for this time of year with highs in the 20s across most of the forecast area, and into the lower 30s along the coast. There is good agreement among models for the track of the low pressure Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the surface low moving off to the north of the state and dragging a cold front through our forecast area. The low will be a clipper type system, moving quickly from west to east. As cloud cover continues to fill in and warm air advection persists in the warm sector of the low, temperatures will continue to warm through the night Tuesday night and into the day on Wednesday. Given the short duration the low pressure will be in the area and the relatively narrow frontal passage, total precipitation will be on the lower end with around an inch or less of total snow across the region. The surface boundary will be crossing the state around noon into the early afternoon hours. Behind the front, temperatures will begin to drop off, and the high temperature for the day on Wednesday will therefore occur through the late morning hours. These high temperatures will be much above seasonal average, with highs in the 30s across the north and near 40 Downeast. By Wednesday night, skies will begin to clear and winds which were advecting cold air into the area will begin to taper off, and a radiational cooling night is possible with lows falling into the single digits above zero in the north, and teens Downeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will return briefly on Thursday, allowing for skies to clear and temperatures to rebound from the cold of Wednesday night. Highs on Thursday will return to just above seasonal averages. For Thursday night through Friday system, there is fairly good agreement among ensemble members that a low pressure will originate out of the Ohio River Valley on Thursday. From there, it is likely the parent low will track across northern New England, though there is some uncertainty in the exact track the low will follow, which may end up being critical for precipitation type closer to the coast with this system. Precip type will likely remain all snow across the north. Heading into the weekend, there is growing confidence for a potential secondary wave originating out of the Mid-Atlantic and tracking up the coast, reaching our forecast area less than 24 hours after the previous low moves out of the area. This low has even greater uncertainty, being further out in time, and whether the low tracks into the state of Maine or remains off shore and tracking towards Nova Scotia remains to be determined. The EPS maintains more significant separation between these two events than the GEFS, where the Mid-Atlantic low ends up being more of a secondary low to the Friday system. High pressure will return to the area after the early weekend storms, with a more mild end to the weekend anticipated. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions possible across northern and central areas this morning with light snow tapering to snow showers before ending. Otherwise, VFR across the region today through tonight. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots early today, becoming north/northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable across northern areas tonight. Across Downeast areas tonight, north winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. SHORT TERM: Tuesday: VFR across all terminals, becoming MVFR late over northern terminals as ceilings begin to lower. Winds SE increasing to 5 to 10 kts and gusts 20 to 25 kts late. Tuesday night: Ceilings falling to MVFR/IFR as snow begins from west to east through the night. Winds shifting S to SW at 10 to 15 kts, gusting 20 to 25 kts. Wednesday: Conditions improving to VFR as snow tapers off from south to north. Winds shifting W to NW at 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts. Wednesday night: VFR across all terminals with light W winds around 5 kts. Thursday: VFR across the north and mostly VFR Downeast, with ceilings falling towards MVFR late as snow moves in from the SW. Winds shifting S at 5 to 10 kts. Thursday night: MVFR/IFR at all terminals as snow spreads across the entire area. Winds shifting E at 5 to 10 kts. Friday: Ceilings gradually lifting from south to north towards VFR through the day. Winds shifting N to NW at around 10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have allowed the Small Craft Advisory to expire and issued a Gale Warning for all the waters in effect from 5 PM this afternoon through 5 AM Tuesday. Light freezing spray tonight. SHORT TERM: Conditions will gradually improve through Tuesday morning as brief high pressure returns to the area, and winds and seas will fall below SCA levels by Tuesday afternoon. A cold front approaches the waters Tuesday night, and winds will pick up ahead of this front with gusts over 25 kts likely. Winds may briefly approach 35 kts over the outermost coastal waters early Wednesday morning. SCA conditions likely to continue through the day on Wednesday before winds and seas begin to taper back below advisory levels Wednesday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Norcross Short Term...AStrauser Long Term...AStrauser Aviation...Norcross/AStrauser Marine...Norcross/AStrauser