000 FGUS71 KBUF 141220 ESFBUF NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117- 121-211230- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 820 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ....BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH MARCH 28TH... This is the sixth flood potential outlook of the 2024 season. Flood outlooks will be issued every two weeks into early spring to summarize basin conditions and to assess the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and water equivalent, creek and river levels and the amount of ice on them, along with the expected conditions during the next two weeks. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY... The remaining snow pack is well below normal, with virtually no snow or ice on the ground. The only exception is some portions of the Black River basin where Snow Water Equivalent Values (SWE) are 1 to 2 inches across some higher terrain. This snow cover is patchy and cover less than a quarter of the area in Black River Basin. For the most part flows on rivers and creeks are near normal. Again, the only exception is the Black River Basin where flows are above normal due to recent rains and some snow melt. The following is a summary of the conditions at 7 a.m. Thursday morning, March 14th: ...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN... .SNOW COVER..........None. .WATER EQUIVALENT....None. .CREEK FLOWS.........Near normal. .CREEK ICE...........None. .GROUND FROST........None. .GROUND STATE........Thawed, semi-saturated. ...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA... .SNOW COVER..........None. .WATER EQUIVALENT....None. .CREEK FLOWS.........Near to below normal. .CREEK ICE...........None. .GROUND FROST........None. .GROUND STATE........Thawed, semi-saturated. ...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN... .SNOW COVER..........None. .WATER EQUIVALENT....None. .CREEK FLOWS.........Near normal. .CREEK ICE...........None. .GROUND FROST........None. .GROUND STATE........Thawed, semi-saturated. ...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL... .SNOW COVER..........None, except 4 to 8 on the Tug Hill and Adirondacks. .WATER EQUIVALENT....None, except 1 to 2 inches on the Tug Hill and Adirondacks. .RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Above normal. .RIVER/CREEK ICE.....None. .GROUND FROST........None. .GROUND STATE........Mainly thawed and saturated. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... It will be warm with some rain today and tonight. Rainfall amounts will average around a half inch. This will be followed by cooler but fair weather late Friday and Saturday. Rain and snow Saturday night and Sunday will transition into lake effect snow Sunday night through Tuesday. Before the changeover, rainfall amounts will be negligible, averaging around a tenth of an inch. The colder weather will support accumulating snows, which will mainly be southeast of the lakes in the Western Allegheny and parts of the Buffalo Creeks, and in a portion of the Black River headwaters. This will likely establish some snow pack, but additional SWE amount will average less than a quarter inch in most areas, with around a half inch in more persistent snows. This will be followed by mainly dry weather for Wednesday. The 8 to 14 day outlook favors near to slightly above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The expected pattern will support frequent precipitation chances, but at this time there is no strong signal that there will be a major rain producing storm. The wettest and most active period of the outlook will be from March 23rd onward. However the overall risk of a significant rain producing system during the outlook period is low but non- zero. ...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... Through March 28th the overall risk for flooding is below normal. The rain later today and tonight will cause modest rises on river and creeks. These will be well within banks for most, although there's a small chance the Black River will reach action stage following the rain today and tonight. The lack of snow pack renders the ongoing warm weather largely irrelevant. This will change some after this weekend, when some lake effect snow will establish a limited snow pack in portions of some basins. However the March sun is likely to melt this off gradually late next week even with below normal temperatures. As a result, ensembles show low risks (less than 5 percent) for any river forecast point to flood during the next 10 days. After this, the risk for flooding is non-zero but still below normal for what is climatologically a season for high flows. Model guidance suggests an active pattern from March 23rd onward, and given model uncertainty at this timeframe a significant rain producing system cannot completely be ruled out. However, it would take more rain than usual to cause flooding due to the lack of snow pack in place. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for specific locations along rivers across Western New York can be found on the internet at www.weather.gov/buf. Since conditions can change, please refer to the latest flood watches, warnings, and statements for additional information. The next Winter/Spring Outlook will be issued on March 28th. We would like to thank all the observers and agencies which have helped gather data in support of this outlook. $$ Apffel