255 FXUS61 KBTV 121427 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1027 AM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak occluded front will remain stalled across central New York through this morning, keeping showers just to our south and west today. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the middle of next week with high pressure building back across the region. Temperatures will be a little cooler than what we have observed as of late but we will still see values 5 to 15 degrees above normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1024 AM EDT Monday...No big changes to the forecast this morning as the main challenge is timing how quickly the light rain showers exit to south across northern New York this afternoon. Additional light rainfall is expected across St. Lawrence County though the early afternoon hours with just 0.05" or less of additional rainfall expected. Elsewhere, variable cloud cover will yield periods of partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures are on track to warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s but could see a few places in the northern Champlain Valley flirt with the upper 60s if enough sun is seen through peak heating. Previous discussion...The persistent area of rain that has remained just to our south and west overnight will wane through the day today as the backdoor frontal boundary shifts southwest and drier air wins out. The best chances for rain in our forecast area will be along and south of a Ogdensburg to Newcomb to Rutland to Windsor line, mainly through the early morning hours. Otherwise, expect decreasing cloud cover from northeast to southwest, with partly sunny conditions to prevail just about everywhere by sunset. Temperatures will be cooler today than yesterday, ranging from the mid 50s in far eastern VT to the lower 60s in the St Lawrence Valley. The drier weather will linger tonight and Tuesday as ridging returns to the North Country. After dropping into the the mid 30s to lower 40s tonight, temperatures will warm back into the 60s areawide with a mix of sun and clouds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Monday...When in drought, leave it out. Guidance has trended drier and warmer for Wednesday as the bowling ball of a low pressure system to our west loses some oomph. That system will run into a narrow upper level ridge building northward along the east coast Tuesday night in the wake of the wave that passed to our south early in the week. So yet again, looking at scattered at best rain showers for this time frame. Clouds, unlikely to produce significant precipitation with the upper level height rises and dry low-level air, will move through the area from west to east, especially early Wednesday. This may help keep temperatures from getting too chilly even with the lack of wind. During the daytime, went towards warmer guidance with highs in the 60 to 65 range in most areas, with ample sunshine, especially towards the north and east farther from the occluded low. Overall, it should be another pleasant day for outdoor activities with gentle breezes associated with surface heating as winds aloft remain light. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 438 AM EDT Monday...We continue to monitor increasing precipitation chances for late in the week. While scattered showers remain possible over the region Wednesday night into Thursday associated with the system mentioned in the short term period, a more organized surface low pressure area will be developing to our south. Models are better clustered around a more amplified storm system tracking northward on Thursday in advance of upper-level energy, then eastward on Friday as the strengthening low gets captured by the upper-level system. This scenario results in a longer duration storm with heavier precipitation mainly confined just to our south. As such, offering a chance of rain for upwards of 36 hours for much of the area from Thursday through Friday. Anticipate being able to fine-tune the precipitation forecast over the next couple of days if trends continue, with a sharp north/west cutoff supporting a gradient of wet and dry weather somewhere over our forecast area. Precipitation type will also be a concern. The nor'easter will also generate a temperature gradient with marginally cold air under the low pressure system. Sufficiently cold air aloft in southern portions of the region will support a mix of rain and snow in the southern Green Mountains and Adirondacks, with light accumulations possible in the highest terrain. Even in valley locations wet-bulb cooling may be sufficient to produce some wet snow if precipitation is heavy enough, particularly Thursday night/early Friday in southern and eastern Vermont. For now, have temperatures ranging through the 40s and 50s on Friday but may need to significantly bring down these values across southern zones if the storm lingers. With the steering flow taking the storm system eastward rather than northward on Friday, it is becoming increasingly likely that fair weather will return for the weekend as weak ridging slides eastward into the North Country. Temperatures will be near or a bit above seasonable values, with Sunday a bit warmer than Saturday. Precipitation chances are minimal during this period, although an approaching shortwave on Sunday may spark showers during the late day period. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the 24 hour TAF period as a frontal boundary remains draped from the southern St Lawrence Valley into southern VT. BKN ceilings will mainly remain AOA 5000 ft, with KMPV and KRUT perhaps dropping to around 2500 ft occasionally 15z-00z. East to southeast winds 5 to 10 kt through much of the period, with gustiness at KMSS and KRUT this afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Clay/Hastings SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...Hastings