000 FXUS61 KBTV 031435 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1035 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring dry conditions and cool temperatures to the region through Independence Day. Precipitation chances return Monday night through late Tuesday evening as a frontal system moves through the region. Temperatures remain below normal through Wednesday before warming back to around average late week when conditions become more unsettled and periods of precipitation become possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1033 AM EDT Sunday...No significant changes as high pressure remains firmly in control today. Mid/high clouds have pushed southeast of the North Country will mostly clear skies evident, except for some flatter fair weather cumulus over terrain. Previous Discussion...Quick update to the morning forecast to adjust for a bit more mid/high cloud cover across central/southern VT for the next few hours. These clouds should exit the region though by 9-10 AM with just a few fair weather cumulus and wisps of cirrus developing through the day. Previous Discussion...A quiet period of weather is expected for the remainder of the holiday weekend as surface high pressure over the Great Lakes this morning will slow drift over the Northeast. Temperatures will run about 3-5 degrees below normal for early July owing to west/northwest flow aloft with 925mb temps of +15-18C supporting highs generally in the mid/upper 70s, except low 70s in the Adirondacks and lows 60s on the summits. Overnight lows will follow suit ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. As far as sky cover goes, just a few passing cirrus are expected today and a dry secondary cold front north of the Canadian border will bring some lower clouds across northern areas tonight. Otherwise, increasing cloud cover is expected for July 4th ahead of our next system but shouldn't impact any fireworks displays. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 333 AM EDT Sunday...A period of unsettled wx is likely on Tues/Tue Night associated with our next system. Large scale pattern continues to feature upper lvl ridge anchored over the Central Plains with mid/upper lvl trof prevailing acrs the NE CONUS. The combination of embedded s/w energy, pw values in the 1.5 to 1.7" range, and 1008 mb low pres tracking acrs our cwa, wl produce a period of showers with embedded thunder on Tues/Tues Night. Given moisture profiles and warm cloud depths of 12-13kft, localized heavy downpours wl be possible, similar to our last system on Friday Night. Still some uncertainty on timing of system and eventual track of sfc low pres, as latest guidance is trending slightly further north toward the International Border. This would place our cwa in the warmer sector with the potential for slightly better instability, if some sun/sfc heating could occur on Tues. Soundings indicating nearly moist adiabatic profiles with potential for clouds, so have just schc for thunder in grids for now, but this could change. In addition, soundings due show strengthening mid lvl winds of 40 to 50 knots, helping to enhance deep layer shear in the 45 to 55 knot range associated with system on Tues. Given dynamics/forcing and shear parameters, if we can get additional heating/instability Tues would have the potential to be an active wx day. Otherwise, did mention some low chc pops on Monday Night acrs the SLV/northern NY associated with warm frnt feature and mid lvl moisture/embedded s/w energy. NAM is slightly more robust with feature than GFS, with some support from ECMWF. Given the slightly northern shift in sfc low pres track, have trended temps warmer on Tues, mainly l/m 70s near the International Border to l/m 80s southern zns. Lows generally in the 50s to near 60F. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 333 AM EDT Sunday...Little overall change in synoptic scale pattern is anticipated for the long term. This wl result in a similar type pattern we have experienced much of this summer, with comfortable temps/low humidity, near normal precip and minimal impactful or hazardous wx. Next potential system arrives on Friday into Sat, but given time frame, have noted a large spread in guidance with regards to timing in fairly progressive west/northwest flow aloft. For now have mention just schc/chc pops during this time period, with the idea of fine tuning pops as agreement becomes better in guide. Did knock 3 to 5 degrees off NBM for Thur morning lows, as both ECMWF/GFS indicate 1020mb high pres overhead and mostly clear skies, but with westerly flow aloft wl have to monitor potential for some high clouds streaking acrs fa. Have placed temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s for now. Otherwise, expecting highs mid 70s to lower 80s with comfortable overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s depending upon location/elevation, warmest in urban heat islands of the CPV. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through the period. SCT-BKN mid/high clouds over central/southern VT this morning will exit by mid-morning with just some fair weather mid clouds and wisps of cirrus developing through the day. Late afternoon into the evening some additional mid clouds will encroach upon the Canadian border as a weak boundary approaches before trending back to SCT cirrus towards daybreak Monday. Variable winds 5kts or less early this morning will trend west- northwest at 8-12kts through the day with isolated gusts up towards 18kts, then abate to nearly calm by 03Z. Outlook... Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Boyd/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Lahiff