000 FGUS71 KBOX 151926 ESFBOX CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025- 027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-221930- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 326 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 ...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... The winter/spring freshwater flood potential through the end of March is near normal across southern New England except above normal in southern Rhode Island. For a graphical depiction of this outlook, go to: http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential This outlook is based on current and forecast conditions including temperatures, precipitation, snow cover, snow water content, river flows, soil moisture, and ice coverage. ...RECENT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION... Temperatures and precipitation have been well above normal across southern New England through the first half of March. Temperatures are running 5 to 7 degrees above normal and rainfall accumulations are 160 to 200 percent of normal through the first half of the month. This equates to widespread 4 to 8 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation across southern New England with slightly lower amounts between 2 and 4 inche over The Cape and Islands region. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER CONTENT... Snow depths and snow water content are virtually zero across southern New England with the exception of the high elevations of The Berkshires where there is very little snow pack. ...SOIL MOISTURE, RIVER FLOWS, AND GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... Soil moisture, streamflow, and groundwater are all well above normal across southern New England. Only exception is for groundwater on Nantucket where wells are reporting below normal levels. There is ongoing river flooding along the Pawcatuck River in southern RI which is why the flood potential outlook for southern Rhode Island is above normal. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... The Climate Predcition Center's 8 to 14 day outlook which goes through roughly the end of March is leaning toward above normal temperatures and precipitation. ...SUMMARY... The winter/spring freshwater flood potential through the end of March is near normal across southern New England except above normal in southern Rhode Island. Zero snowpack and river ice offsets the high streamflow/soil moisture to yield a near-normal flood potential outlook over the next 2 weeks. However, given flows in southern Rhode Island are currently producing minor river flooding, the potential is above normal for that region. As a reminder, flooding rain can occur any time during the year, even when the flood outlook is below normal. The Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook can provide a heads-up for excessive rainfall over the next five days: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box The next Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be issued on Thursday, March 28th. $$ For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at www.weather.gov/boston You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSBoston You can follow us on Twitter at @NWSBoston