000 FXUS61 KBOX 171408 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1008 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will bring a few light showers to the region today. Gusty north-northeast winds will also impact coastal MA. Low will lift north into Maine by early Thursday bringing a mostly dry, seasonable day to the region, as winds shift to the west. Very warm weather with above normal temps returns Friday and Saturday, followed by increasing humidity for the first half of next week. Generally dry weather is expected through the weekend with the best chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly sometime Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM update... Upper level low over the Gulf of Maine will drift slowly to the NW today. Bulk of rain is east of New Eng with mainly dry conditions currently in SNE. Best forcing and deeper moisture will be to the north today with some drier air noted in the 925-850 mb layer. As a result, not expecting much more than a few showers today, with best chance across NE MA this afternoon as deeper moisture rotates around the upper low. Regarding the wind, magnitude of low level jet is weaker than previously forecast around 30-40 kt, and displaced further N over the Gulf of Maine. This results in less wind over the Cape/Islands and so the wind advisory was cancelled. Will still see some gusts 25-35 mph from the outer Cape to Cape Ann but this is considerably less than wind advisory criteria. Adjusted wind and PoPs to reflect this thinking. With lack of rainfall today and potential for some breaks of sun, bumped up temps a bit with highs low/mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Highlights... Low pressure begins to lift into the gulf of Maine, and eventually in to Maine, this evening, which will cause winds to shift from the N/NE to the W/NW. Scattered showers will likely linger into the early morning hours of Thursday, but Thursday is expected to be mainly dry. A cold pool at 500mb should generate some cumulus clouds during the day Thursday, but overall, a clearing trend is expected. Winds will be breezy during the day Thursday, but are expected to be much weaker than Wednesday; generally gusting less than 15 kt. Thursday is shaping up to be a relatively nice day, with highs in the 70s to near 80, warmest in the CT River Valley, southeast MA, and Rhode Island. Thursday evening is shaping up to be the coolest night for the foreseeable future. Dewpoints in the 50s, light winds, and clearing skies should allow for radiational cooling. Widespread 50s are expected, with urban heat islands being the exception; metropolitan areas such as Hartford and Boston will remain in the 60s. The Cape will also fall back into the 60s given the warm SSTs and slightly higher dewpoints. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights... * Dry with Summer-Like Warmth Fri & Sat, but humidity will remain comfortable for August standards * Increasing humidity during the first half of next week with the best chance for scattered showers and a few t-storms Tue into Wed Details... Friday and Saturday... Upper trough over the Northeast pulls away from the region as Bermuda High pressure strengthens. This will result in summer-like warmth with above normal temperatures Fri & Sat. High should be well up into the 80s to near 90. Humidity levels will remain comfortable for August standards despite the very warm weather. Upper level ridging should also result in dry weather along with plenty of sunshine. Sunday through Wednesday... The focus will be on shortwave energy across the Great Lakes and how fast or slow it moves east. We are leaning towards the movement of the shortwave trough being on the slower side. This a result of Upper level ridging over the Atlantic coupled with confluent flow across Northern New England. This may keep our weather mainly dry Sun and perhaps Mon too. While a surface warm front may trigger a few brief showers sometime Sun into Mon, the lack of deeper synoptic forcing may result in generally dry weather. A better chance for some showers and a few t-storms will be sometime Tue into Wed as better shortwave energy approaches from the west. High temps will mainly be in the 80s over this time with the warmest day expected to be Sunday when a few spots may approach 90 across the interior. The bigger story will be the increasing humidity; so it will certainly feel summer-like over this timeframe. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today... Moderate Confidence. Mainly dealing with VFR conditions today despite periods of light showers. However, some lower clouds /MVFR conditions/ will impact mainly eastern MA at times later this morning and afternoon. N wind gusts of 20-25 knots develop along the coast and between 30-35 knots across the Cape/Nantucket. Tonight... Moderate Confidence. VFR to marginal VFR ceilings this evening with the lower conditions most likely towards the eastern MA coast. Improvement to VFR occurs at most terminals by 12z. Winds becomes NW 5 to 10 kt. Thursday... High Confidence. Mainly VFR with conditions improving through the day. Low chance for a shower across interior southern New England Thursday morning. NW winds, gusting to 15 kt, become westerly in the afternoon. Winds will be more from the W/SW on Cape Cod and Nantucket, but still generally less than 15 kt. KBOS...Moderate confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Sunday/... Friday: VFR. Breezy. Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 10 AM update... Dropped the Gale warning for all but the eastern most outer waters where a brief period of 35 kt gusts possible. Small Craft Advisories continue for all other waters but dropped it for Block Island Sound which will remain west of the core of the low level jet. Wednesday night into Wednesday Night... Moderate Confidence Low pressure will track into the gulf of Maine into Wednesday, which will really kick up the seas; with waves up to 11 feet possible. Given these conditions, a high surf advisory has been issued for our eastern facing coastlines for Wednesday. Eastern and southeast waters experience north/northeast gales overnight into Wednesday. Thursday and Thursday night... High confidence Winds will gradually shift from the W/NW to W/SW during the day on Thursday as they die back; gusting to about 15 kts. Waves will take some time to calm after low pressure departs, so small craft advisories may need to be extended on the premise of wave heights for our outer waters through the day Thursday. Outlook /Friday through Sunday/... Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-015- 016-019-022-024. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231-251- 255. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ232. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ233>235. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ236. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/KS NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...Frank AVIATION...KS MARINE...KJC/KS