000 FXUS61 KALY 040232 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1032 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to allow for dry weather with a mostly clear sky and comfortable levels of humidity for tonight into Independence Day. Warmer and more humid weather will return for Tuesday with some showers and thunderstorms possible, especially for the afternoon and evening hours. Dry, seasonable and less humid conditions will return for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... UPDATE...As of 1030 PM EDT, skies remain mostly clear across the region. West/northwest winds are persisting within the greater Capital Region, at 10-15 mph, while decreasing to less than 5 mph in most other areas. The winds within the Capital Region should begin decreasing around midnight. Across portions of the southern Adirondacks, southern VT and the eastern Catskills, where winds have dropped off, temps have already dipped into the 50s. Elsewhere, temps range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, except closer to 70 where winds are persisting within the immediate Capital Region. By daybreak, the combination of mostly clear skies, light/calm winds and a dry air mass in place should allow temps to drop into the 50s for many areas, with temps as low as the lower/mid 40s across portions of the southern Adirondacks, and mid/upper 40s across portions of southern VT and the eastern Catskills. Some patchy fog may form as well after midnight, especially close to bodies of water across the southern Adirondacks. Previous discussion follows... As of 340 PM EDT...Surface high pressure is located around Lake Erie. Our region is under a very dry west-northwest flow at low to mid levels, which has been allowing for low dewpoints. Much of the region is seeing dewpoints only in the mid 40s to mid 50s, which is very low for early July. With good mixing in place, winds have been occasionally gusty at times through the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over the area, with just some patchy diurnal cumulus over the Adirondacks. With the loss of daytime mixing, any gusty winds this evening will be diminishing for tonight. The diurnal cumulus will be decreasing, allowing for nearly clear skies for tonight, as the surface high pressure starts moving overhead. With the dry conditions, diminishing wind and clear skies, good radiational cooling will allow for a cool night. Lows will be in the 50s, with some upper 40s expected over the Adirondacks, Catskills and southern Greens. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The surface high pressure will be slowly sliding eastward offshore southern New England on Monday. It will remain close enough to continue to provide dry weather through the entire day on Independence Day. Skies look mostly sunny through the day, although some thin cirrus clouds may begin approaching northern areas by evening. Otherwise, it will be another seasonably warm and comfortable day. Dewpoints will continue to be in the lower 50s for most spots, as the low level moisture won't be returning just yet. Highs should reach the low 80s for valley areas, with 70s across the hills and mountains. A light southerly flow may start to return by Monday night with increasing cloud cover. This should allow for temps to not be as cool as recent nights, with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dewpoints will slowly be creeping up, but still mainly be in the 50s. There is a chance for some light rain showers to reach into the Adirondacks by the late night hours, as some convection riding along a warm front spreads towards the area from the Great Lakes. Model guidance has been suggesting that most of the activity for late Monday night into Tuesday morning will remain be north of the area, but will keep some low POPs in place for northern areas since it will be close. On Tuesday, our area will be within a warm sector, as low pressure heads from the Great Lakes and across Ontario. While most of the activity early in the day will be north of the area, additional showers and thunderstorms developing along the storm's cold front will be impacting the area for the afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of the boundary, it will be fairly breezy, as a sharpening pressure gradient and strong low level jet will allow for gusty south to southwest winds ahead of the front. This will allow for the low-level moisture to quickly increase, with dewpoints jumping back up into the 60s. If enough breaks in the clouds occur, it could be a warm day, with highs in the low to mid 80s for valley areas, especially if the southwest winds downslope off the high terrain. Although mid-level lapse rates look fairly poor and instability will be somewhat marginal, will need to watch for some locally gusty winds within any heavier showers or thunderstorms on Tuesday into Tuesday evening, as there should be decent shear in place and model soundings do show a little bit of an inverted v profile in place. The models are still not totally in agreement with the exact timing, but the boundary looks to cross sometime on Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Clearing should be occurring by late in the night behind the boundary, with temps falling into the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Much of the long term will be dominated by a general mid/upper level west/northwest flow, as broad troughing persists across eastern Canada. Weak disturbances passing within this flow will bring a few chances for showers/thunderstorms, mainly Thu night into Fri, although some showers could linger as late as Saturday. Temperatures should remain near, or slightly below seasonal levels for early July. A departing cold front and passing upper level trough could bring isolated showers for Wednesday, especially for the morning, before dry conditions return late Wednesday into Thursday. It will be seasonably cool, with high Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s in valleys, and lower/mid 70s for most higher terrain. Lows Wednesday night mainly in the 50s, although some 40s will be possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks. Slightly warmer for Thursday, with highs 80-85 in valley areas, and mid/upper 70s across higher terrain. The next upper level impulse approaches from the northern Great Lakes region late Thursday night into Friday. Warm advection could lead to some showers/isolated thunderstorms Thursday night, especially across northern areas, with better chances for showers/isolated thunderstorms for Friday into Friday evening as the main upper level disturbance passes through, along with a surface warm front early Friday, and cold front late Friday or Friday night. Thursday and Friday night min temps should be milder, with lows ranging from the mid 50s to lower/mid 60s; highs Friday should reach the lower/mid 80s for lower elevations, and 75-80 across higher terrain. Depending on the progression of the main upper level disturbance, some showers could linger into Saturday, especially in the morning, otherwise current indications favor dry conditions for late Saturday into Sunday. It will be slightly cooler next weekend, with high temps generally 75-80 in valleys, and upper 60s to lower 70s across higher terrain areas, with overnight lows mainly in the 50s, except for some 40s across portions of the southern Adirondacks/southern VT and possibly the eastern Catskills. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00z/Tue...High pressure will remain in control of the weather through Monday afternoon and should result in continued VFR conditions. The only exception may be at KGFL, if patchy fog forms later tonight, but confidence on this is low. Otherwise, just a few passing mid and high clouds are expected over the next 24 hours. Our west to northwesterly breeze early this evening will trend light to calm overnight tonight. Wind will then be out of the west to northwesterly direction again Monday at 5-10 kt. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... It will continue to remain precipitation free for tonight into tomorrow. Although RH values will be above 80 percent tonight, they will fall to near 30 percent on Monday afternoon. Winds will be fairly light for tonight into tomorrow. Most areas should see a wetting rainfall on Tuesday into Tuesday night. RH values will mainly be above 50 percent on Thursday with southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry weather will continue for tonight through Monday night, allowing for river and stream levels to remain steady. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Although amounts will be somewhat variable, many spots will see a quarter to half inch of much needed rainfall. This rainfall probably won't have much impact on rivers and streams, although brief ponding is possible for urban areas. Dry weather will then return for Wednesday into Thursday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Rathbun FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis