000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271427 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1027 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and tonight. This front stalls across the southeastern states Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the northwest for the mid week period. Hotter and increasingly humid conditions arrive later in the week as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM EDT Monday... Latest MSAS/radar loop has the convective activity assctd with the apprchg cold front across the mts with a few shwrs dvlpng out ahead of it along a leading sfc trof. Still pleny of breaks in the cloud deck across the region allowing temps to jump into the 80s over the next svrl hrs. Latest high res models remain consistant in pushing the cold front slowly sse across the local area this aftrn/eve. Shwrs/tstms will accompany this bndry with the best timing being 18Z-21Z across the nw, 20Z-23Z central and 22Z-03Z across the sern zones. Given PW's aoa 2 inches, main threat appears to be lclly hvy downpours as the line slowly drifts se. Wind gusts will also accompany any storm, but no svr storms are expected. Kept likely PoPs for now but did add the potential for hvy downpours. Also bumped up QPF's a bit with most areas seeing btwn 1/2 to 1 inch, psbly over 1 inch across sern VA by early eve. Temps will reach the highs (mid-upr 80s), then drop into the 70s once the rain arrives. PVS DSCN: Lows tonight range from the upper 50s NW to the upper 60s SE. The front does become aligned parallel to the mid- level flow later tonight so it will be slow to clear the coast. Showers linger through the night, especially across far SE VA/NE NC, but the thunderstorm potential will diminish after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... The cold front is forecast to stall and wash-out over NC Tuesday as high pressure builds into the northern Mid-Atlantic. 20-30% PoPs continue into Tuesday morning for far SE VA/NE NC, but then drop to less than 15% by the afternoon. Otherwise, very pleasant for late June with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints dropping into the lower to mid 50s from central VA to the Eastern Shore, with upper 50s/lower 60s for SE VA/NE NC. Partly cloudy to mostly clear Tuesday night with high pressure centered N of the region, and the old boundary off the NC coast. Forecast lows range from the upper 50s N/NW to the mid 60s far SE. High pressure nudges offshore Wednesday, but still rather pleasant. Forecast highs range from the upper 70s/lower 80s along the coast, to the mid 80s inland under a partly to mostly sunny sky. There is a slight chc of an afternoon sea-breeze tstm across NE NC. Otherwise, dewpoints are still expected to drop into the upper 50s/around 60F N of the VA/NC border. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... High pressure gradually slides offshore Thursday, Friday, and into Saturday with hotter and increasingly more humid conditions expected. Mainly dry conditions are expected Thursday into Friday under a building upper ridge, and chances of afternoon showers/tstms are even limited Saturday with only a 20-30% chc of diurnally driven convection in vicinity of a lee-side trough. PoPs increase to 30-50% for showers/tstms Sunday as an upper trough and weak cold front arrive from the NW. Highs Thursday are mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with lower to mid 90s Friday/Saturday, then upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday. Lows are mainly 60s on Wednesday night, upper 60s Thursday night, then upper 60s to lower 70s later in the week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 720 AM EDT Monday... VFR with increasing high clouds as of 11z with high pressure centered offshore and a S wind of 8-12kt. A cold front will approach from the NW this morning, and then slowly cross the area this afternoon and evening. This will bring showers/tstms, with brief IFR/LIFR vsby likely in heavy rain. The best chc is after 18z, so thunder has not been included at this time given that it is beyond 12hrs. Cigs lower to 4-6kft by the afternoon, with some guidance suggesting some MVFR cigs by the evening. The wind is expected to be SSW 10-15kt with some gusts approaching 20kt later this morning into mid- aftn. Showers/tstms will persist across SE VA/NE NC this evening, with showers also lingering into the early overnight hours. The wind is expected to become light and variable this evening, and then shift to NNE later tonight, with gusts up to 20kt possible at ORF. Showers move off the NC coast Tuesday morning, with dry and VFR conditions expected to prevail across the region Tuesday afternoon through Friday as high pressure builds into and over the area. && .MARINE... As of 645 AM EDT Monday... Have cancelled SCA for the Bay south of New Point Comfort, including the lower James. Winds are diminishing across these areas, though some gusts to ~20 kt will be possible for the next few hours. SCA continues north of New Pt Comfort to Smith Point through 10am. Still appears another round of SCA will be needed over the Bay and portions of the rivers with cold air advection behind the approaching front late tonight. Latest Wind Probs back into the 60-80% chance range for exceedance of 18kt sustained winds in the bay. Will allow day crew to take a look at 12z guidance before adding any new SCA headlines. Previous discussion follows... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... Latest Obs reflect SSW winds ~15-20 kt over the local waters early this morning. Winds have increased largely as expected over the waters this morning, owing to gradually tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. The front itself is still well west of the local area, extending from western QC and just west of the central Appalachians. A prefrontal trough was analyzed just east of the local waters this morning. and will push toward the coast through mid- morning. The front itself still looks to slow as it crosses into the area this afternoon, before being pushed south by the parent trough tonight into Tuesday morning. SCA remains in effect for the lower James River and the Chesapeake Bay until later this morning (7 and 10 am, respectively). Winds then slowly veer around to the W-SW in response to the approaching pre- frontal trough, with winds diminishing until this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the approaching front as it crosses the area. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, some heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be possible in the strongest storms. Winds become N-NW post-frontal Monday night into Tuesday. In- house wind probs have once again caught on to another window of potential SCA, indicating likely gusts to 20-25 kt in the Bay and lower James River early Tuesday morning. With existing SCAs in place, won't add additional headlines right now, but expect at least a 6-9 hour window of SCAs late tonight for the Bay and lower James at a minimum. Otherwise, expect winds out of the NNE winds diminishing to around ~10-15 kt Tuesday, continuing into early Wed, before diminishing slightly. The weak front returns back north across the region as a warm front later Wed/Wed night, allowing typical summer time flow regime to resume. S-SE return flow ~10 kt looks to prevail each late morning and aftn, veering around to the S-SW by late day into the overnight. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MAM