000 FXUS61 KAKQ 162002 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses the area through this evening. High pressure builds into the area later tonight through the middle of next week bringing more seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. Another cold front potentially impacts the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 315 PM EDT Saturday... The forecast remains on track for this evening through tonight. Latest observations show the cold front moving through the western half of the area, with it on the doorstep of RIC/I-95 corridor. The cold front will continue to race east across the area and clear the entire CWA by 00z/8 PM this evening. A line of gusty showers (with possibly a few embedded rumbles of thunder) is noted along/just ahead of front, which will also continue to race off to the east. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph have been observed with these showers which may have the capability of downing a few large limbs or a couple of trees. Winds may gust to as high as 50 mph, especially in areas exposed to water in the VA Northern Neck and Lower Eastern Shore. Winds shift to NW behind the front and will remain gusty as a result of sharp pressure rises. In addition, expect a 2 to 3 hour window of light to moderate rain in the wake of the front (especially E and NE). Temperatures fall sharply in the wake of the front, quickly dropping from the 80s into the 60s. For tonight, some lingering showers will be possible right along the immediate coast during the first part of the night, otherwise skies clear fairly quickly from the WNW- ESE as cool high pressure begins to build toward the region from the west. Much cooler with lows dropping back into the 40s for many locations away from the coast (low to mid 50s right along the coast). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Saturday... Dry/mainly sunny wx and cooler temperatures prevail tomorrow through Tuesday. NW flow aloft is expected to continue through the short term period as the upper trough slowly pulls away to the NE (but lingers INVOF Atlantic Canada). The surface high will continue to slowly build toward the area, and is progged to become centered just to our WSW by late Mon night into Tuesday. Highs will struggle to make it out of the mid 60s on Sunday across much of the area despite full sunshine. Sunday night will be the coolest night of the fall so far. Lows are forecast to be in the low 40s in the VA Piedmont (possibly upper 30s in the typically cooler spots such as LKU), low to mid 40s in most other inland locations, and upper 40s-low 50s near the immediate coast. Forecast highs on Mon are a bit warmer, with upper 60s expected for the vast majority of the area. Cool again Mon night with lows similar to what is expected Sun night. The warming trend continues into Tuesday with highs expected to reach the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Saturday... NW flow aloft potentially continues through Tue before the flow flattens out and becomes quasi-zonal over the Mid-Atlantic by the middle of next week. The sfc high settles just to our SW from Tue- Tue night, then shifts offshore during the latter part of the week. Forecast remains dry through Thu, with slight rain chances returning by Friday-Friday night as another cold front approaches. A warming trend is expected from Tue-Thu, with highs warming from the low 70s on Tue to mid-upper 70s by Thu. Mid to upper 70s are expected in most areas on Fri. Lows generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tuesday night, in the mid 40s to mid 50s Wednesday night, and in the 50s to near 60F Thursday night. Friday night will be slightly cooler with lows back to the low-mid 50s. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Saturday... FROPA is ongoing just west of the CWA. Winds have started to gust up to 20-24KT at RIC,SBY,PHF and ORF out of the SW. RIC should expect showers to begin with the FROPA around 20Z. ORF/SBY/PHF can expect showers to start between 21-22z. Showers at ECG will be start later around 23z. PCPN will likely last 2-4 hrs. During and immediately after FROPA (about 1hr), winds will shift to the WNW-NW and gust to ~30kt. CIGs may drop to MVFR as the front passes this evening. VSBYs are expected to mostly remain VFR, but MVFR is possible with heavier pockets of rain. Skies will clear out overnight as dry air moves into the area. ORF will remain gusty through the night, but other terminals should see winds diminish to around 10kt. Winds out of the NW will increase again tomorrow with gusts between 20-25kt. Outlook... VFR conditions are expected into next week. Gusty NW winds will persist through Monday, especially near the coast. && .MARINE... As of 400 PM EDT Saturday... Cold front now along-just E of the I 95 corridor and will be continuing E this afternoon...crossing the local waters from about 21Z/16-00Z/17. SSW winds will be gusty to 20-25 kt ahead of the front...then winds will become NW and gusty to 25-35 kt (briefly to 40-50kt w/ and shortly behind SHRAs/the front). CAA tonight- Sun will keep NW winds avgg 15-25 kt. Waves will be 2-4 ft on the bay...seas 4-6 ft. CAA is slow to wane late Sun- Mon resulting in speeds. SCAs will remain up on most waters through Sun night...have extended the SCA through Mon morning on Ches Bay. Sfc hi pres settles over the mid- Atlantic waters providing quiet marine wx conditions. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday Coastal flood advisory remains in place for Dorchester county MD until 20Z/16 as current high tide ongoing. Some potential for nuisance flooding along the VA eastern shore (i.e Bayford) as strong NW winds push water into that area this evening-Sun morning. A Coastal Flood Statement may be needed there. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ632>637. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ638-650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/ERI NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...AJB/ERI LONG TERM...AJB/AM/ERI AVIATION...AJB/AM MARINE...ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...