000 FXUS61 KAKQ 061140 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 640 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough of low pressure and sfc low pressure will push off the coast and out to sea this morning. High pressure will build into and over the area this afternoon into Tuesday. The high will slide off the coastal Carolinas for late Tuesday through Wednesday. A couple of fronts and low pressure areas bring the chance for showers Thursday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 355 AM EST Monday... Early this morning, sfc low pressure was off the SE coast while a sfc trough of low pressure was just pushing offshore of the Mid Atlc coast. Latest radar showed light rain showers were moving just off the coast also. The sky cover ranged from mostly clear to cloudy across the area, as BKN-OVC stratus was still lingering over ern/SE locations. Temps were ranging through the 40s. The sfc trough and sfc low pressure will push farther out to sea during today, allowing sfc high pressure to build in from the W. The sky will become partly to mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 50s across most of the region. NNW winds will be quite gusty, esply later this morning through this aftn, as gusts could approach 25-30 mph and will be highest over the NE and at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EST Monday... The sky will be clear to mostly clear tonight, as the sfc high builds right over the area by early Tue morning. With decent radiational cooling conditions expected, lows will mainly range from the upper 20s to mid 30s. The upper level ridge and sfc high will slide just off the coast by late Tue. WSW upper-level flow should funnel in mainly high clouds during Tue. Relatively light SSW sfc winds will result in high temps in the mid to upper 50s over most of the area. Dry and mainly partly cloudy Tue night with milder lows in the lower to mid 40s as the sfc high slides farther off the coastal Carolinas. A weak backdoor front will drop into nrn portions of the area during Wed, then lifts north of the region by Thu morning. Regardless, milder temps and dry/partly sunny conditions are expected across the area Wed, with highs ranging from the lower 60s across the NE, to the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Dry Wed night, except maybe an isolated shower late Wed night over NW counties. Lows will range through the 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM EST Monday... The medium range period generally looks warm and a bit unsettled for Thu into early Sat, as an upper level ridge will initially be centered from Florida to Bermuda, and will be slow to translate to the east into next weekend, as an upper level trough amplifies while approaching from the central CONUS. Strong sfc low pressure is forecast to move NE from the OH valley across the Great Lakes Thu into Thu night, lifting a warm front N of the local area. There is some uncertainty as to where the front would stall as it drifts N, so will keep it a little cooler across the N/NE sections on Thu. It still looks much warmer than average regardless, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s central and south, with upper 50s to mid 60s N and NE. Will have a broad-brushed PoP 20-40% for Thu, but unless the front were to stall farther south, expect this to just be showery rather than an all day type of rain. The blended guidance suggests that there is a push of drier air for Thu night into early Fri, followed by another round of increased moisture Fri aftn, and esply Fri evening through Sat morning, as the upper trough advances in from the west. Will focus the highest PoPs later Fri through Sat morning (40-50%) to account for timing differences between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF/Canadian. Then, the guidance is in good agreement that conditions dry out later Sat night with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures Sun, as high pressure builds into/over the Mid Atlc region. Remaining mild Thu night/Fri with highs mainly ranging through the 60s (after AM lows in the 40s/50s). Turning cooler with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Sat, and in the mid 40s to around 50 Sun. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 AM EST Monday... A sfc trough along the Mid Atlc coast and low pressure off the SE coast, was still providing some intermittent light rain along our MD/VA/NE NC coastal areas very early this morning. IFR/LIFR CIGs associated with these systems will improve to MVFR or VFR between 08Z-10Z this morning, as the pcpn/systems shift farther out to sea and winds become NW. Then, becoming breezy later this morning with NNW winds of 12-15kt gusting to 20-25kt along with FEW-SCT late morning to mid-aftn SC. VFR, with a lighter wind this evening through midweek (a backdoor cold front could potentially bring a few flight restrictions to SBY Wed). But, in general, conditions will be VFR until Thu and Fri when periodic restrictions will be possible as the next system pushes into the region. && .MARINE... As of 355 AM EST Monday... Low pressure continues to deepen well off the coast of South Carolina early this morning, with a broad area of high pressure centered from the nrn Great Lakes to the Gulf coast. Winds are generally W at 5-10 kt, with 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. Patchy fog has developed over the mid/upper bay and nrn coastal waters, and could form over the Lower Bay/rivers during the next couple of hours. However, any fog that does form should dissipate by 7-9 AM as winds increase out of the NW. The low pressure system will rapidly strengthen as it passes offshore today and winds will turn to the NW. As the gradient on the back side of the low increases (and modest CAA begins), winds will increase to around 15 to 20 knots across the Chesapeake Bay and 20 to 25 knots for the coastal waters by late morning (where SCAs remain in effect). Have also added the Lower James River and Currituck Sound to the SCA for 15-20 kt winds (and gusts to 25 kt). Cannot rule out a brief period of 20-25 kt gusts on the upper rivers from late morning-mid aftn, but not confident enough to issue SCAs attm. SCA conditions with a NW wind persist through early evening before winds rapidly diminish tonight as the surface high becomes centered just to the west of the local waters. As a result of the increasing winds, seas are also expected to build to 3-5 ft N/4-6 ft S. All SCAs run through at least 00z/7 PM with the ones for the coastal waters in effect until 10 PM for the VA/MD waters and 7 AM for the NC waters due to lingering 5 ft seas. Winds quickly diminish to 5-10 kt by early Tuesday morning as high pressure returns. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are anticipated Tuesday into the middle of the week (although seas may approach 5 feet closer to 20 nm offshore on Wed due to swell from the departing low pressure system). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...SW/TMG LONG TERM...LKB/TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AJB/ERI