000 FXUS63 KABR 260245 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 845 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Temperatures ranged from the teens below zero in the east with single digits above zero across central sd this evening. As the surface high pressure area builds east tonight and the surface pressure gradient tightens up, south winds will increase bringing warmer air north causing rising temperatures mainly after midnight. The current forecast temperature trend shows this along with winds increasing and skies remaining clear. Adjusted lows down a little in the east. UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 00z aviation discussion updated below. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 317 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Wind chill headlines, and the downslope wind event with potential blowing snow issues are the forecast challenges in the short term. A cold, Canadian high pressure will slide southeast across the area through this evening. Current observations are generally in the single digits on either side of zero, with the coldest reading in the far northeast corner of the CWA. The northeast CWA, or east of a line from ABR to ATY, temperatures should fall fairly quickly tonight with lows bottoming out in the teens below, to 25 degrees below zero. The cold temperatures, along with increasing southwesterly winds will cause wind chill values of 25 below to 40 degrees below zero. The current wind chill headline looks appropriate, but will add a warning for the two MN counties. Based on apparent T grids, wind chills will improve by 12Z Wednesday. By 6Z tonight, southwesterly winds should develop over much of the CWA with temperatures becoming steady or slowly rising. The winds will increase, mainly between 9-15Z Wednesday morning with gusty downslope winds on the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills. Sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts of 45 mph will be possible. There are some questions about the state of the current snowpack and whether or not blowing snow will be an issue for the morning commute. Will message the potential on various platforms, but will forgo issuing a blowing snow advisory for now. Significantly warmer air will move into the area on Wednesday with 925 mb temps reaching above 0C for much of the CWA by 21Z. Locations with little to no snow cover, used the NBM 75th for highs, and the NBM 50th or less where the snowpack is several inches deep. A cold front moving into the CWA Wednesday night could bring light snow. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 317 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 The period opens with weak low pressure moving through central SD. Added in some pops for Thursday with the low in accordance with neighbors. NBM has no pops for that time period, but looks like it could be a low QPF, scattered flurry/shower event as the low slides southeast. The caveat is the strong high pressure to the east that may entrain very dry air into the region. Kept any pop mention west of the James Valley. Much of the remainder of the extended will be dry until, possibly, the very end of the seven days. Low pressure will nose up into SD on Tuesday with an arctic front slated to barrel in behind it. The caa could help produce some light to moderate snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Wednesday at all airports. Otherwise, expect LLWS to develop after midnight at all airports continuing into Wednesday morning with winds from the southwest up to 40 knots to 2000 feet. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ005>008-011- 020-021-023. MN...Wind Chill Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...Mohr SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Mohr