000 FXUS63 KABR 140516 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Updated aviation discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 912 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Clouds are rapidly dissipating, however there are two weak systems one north one south of the CWA with some added mid cloud and possibly a light shower but generally negligible impact on the CWA. The upper pattern through the rest of the short term features an upper high over the central/southern plains and ridging just to our west...though that ridge axis gradually progresses east with a slight weakening in the strength of the upper high. A plume of monsoon moisture from the intermountain west slowly ejects into the region with moisture above 8-10kft with moist adiabatic lapse rates and weak shear. CAMS support moistly isolated to scattered heavier storms embedded within a broader area of shower activity associated with a weak wave, with the focus area along the interstate 90 corridor with much lower chances to the north. Slow storm motion, an east west mid level focus area orthogonal to storm/system direction supports potential for locally heavy rain. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 The period starts off with a ridge aloft centered over the Southern Plains. A wave coming off the Rockies looks to provide for some WAA/lift across the region, especially the southern parts of the state for Sunday night and Monday. GEFS/EPS 24hr pcpn probs highlight that area. A mid-level ridge then begins to re-assert itself over the western CONUS in what looks like a pseudo positive PNA flow pattern. This pattern evolution will keep the region in a northwest flow pattern aloft, with several bouts of s/w activity. At that time span forecaster confidence wanes given differing model solutions. Model blend will suffice. Temperatures through the period should average out near to perhaps slightly below normal for mid to late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through the day Sunday. Scattered rain showers are possible across parts of the area from late morning into the evening hours, with the best chance for rain across south central South Dakota. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SD SHORT TERM...Connelly LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...SD