000 FXUS63 KABR 021114 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 514 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Mild and dry conditions to persist through the weekend. The overall weather pattern across the region will remain fairly benign the next couple days. Even though the 500mb upper flow pattern will feature a successive number of shortwaves embedded in the overall broad upper trough present across the north-central portion of the CONUS, these waves will have little if any affect on us in terms of precipitation chances. Little if any significant moisture will be present and associated with these disturbances, other than passing cloud cover. High confidence remains in the temperature forecast today into Sunday. The spread in the NBM's 25th-75th percentiles for high temperatures today across our forecast area remain about 2-4 degrees. Have sided on the higher end of this guidance for daytime highs today as we anticipate a fair amount of sunshine. There remains a bit more spread in these percentiles for Sunday's highs indicating some more variability. We may have some additional cloud cover to contend with on Sunday, but still anticipate daytime readings to push into the upper 30s/low 40s east to the low to mid 40s west. Windy conditions should not be a widespread issue across our forecast area. Although, the Prairie Coteau will see breezy southerly winds later this morning through early afternoon and the Missouri Valley will see gusty west-northwest winds Sunday afternoon behind a frontal passage. Minimum RH values do drop into the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday afternoon and given the forecasted winds this will push the fire danger into the high category for our West River counties. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday) Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Low chances (10-25%) of measurable pcpn Monday/Monday night. - Mostly dry and relatively mild for the rest of the long term. To start the period a somewhat active upper air pattern will be in place over the CONUS, with multitudes of s/w energy embedded in the flow. Several such waves are expected to pass over the CWA for Monday through Tuesday. Available moisture is scant, and thus the chances for measurable pcpn looks pretty low Mon-Tue. For Tue night- Thu a mid level ridge will build across the Northern Plains, with mainly dry condition expected, along with milder temperatures. The ridge does breakdown toward week's end, which may allow for more chances of light pcpn. Deterministic model agreement on the large scale items is pretty decent overall through the period. Probably the main difference is in temperature anomalies projected for mid- week. The GFS/GEFS is running a bit cooler at H85 vs the EC/ECS. Nonetheless, it will be mild come the middle of next week, and current forecast highs are probably a bit underdone. We are forecasting right around or just above the 50th percentile for NBM 2m temps for Wed, but feel they'll probably be closer to the 75th or even 90th percentile. Something for later shifts to ponder. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 513 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR skies/vsbys through today regionwide. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vipond LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...TDK