000
FXUS63 KABR 140516 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 912 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Clouds are rapidly dissipating, however there are two weak systems 
one north one south of the CWA with some added mid cloud and 
possibly a light shower but generally negligible impact on the CWA. 
The upper pattern through the rest of the short term features an 
upper high over the central/southern plains and ridging just to our 
west...though that ridge axis gradually progresses east with a 
slight weakening in the strength of the upper high. A plume of 
monsoon moisture from the intermountain west slowly ejects into the 
region with moisture above 8-10kft with moist adiabatic lapse rates 
and weak shear. CAMS support moistly isolated to scattered heavier 
storms embedded within a broader area of shower activity associated 
with a weak wave, with the focus area along the interstate 90 
corridor with much lower chances to the north. Slow storm motion, an 
east west mid level focus area orthogonal to storm/system direction 
supports potential for locally heavy rain.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022

The period starts off with a ridge aloft centered over the Southern 
Plains. A wave coming off the Rockies looks to provide for some 
WAA/lift across the region, especially the southern parts of the 
state for Sunday night and Monday. GEFS/EPS 24hr pcpn probs 
highlight that area. A mid-level ridge then begins to re-assert 
itself over the western CONUS in what looks like a pseudo positive 
PNA flow pattern. This pattern evolution will keep the region in a 
northwest flow pattern aloft, with several bouts of s/w activity. At 
that time span forecaster confidence wanes given differing model 
solutions. Model blend will suffice. Temperatures through the period 
should average out near to perhaps slightly below normal for mid to 
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through 
the day Sunday. Scattered rain showers are possible across parts of 
the area from late morning into the evening hours, with the best 
chance for rain across south central South Dakota.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...Connelly 
LONG TERM...TDK 
AVIATION...SD