000 FXUS63 KABR 230557 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and windy on Tuesday behind a passing cold front overnight. - Pattern becomes more active by week's end with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms by Friday into the start of the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 833 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Forecast is doing just fine so only minor updates for this evening. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Plenty of dry air working into the CWA this afternoon, with most areas along and west of the James River in the 10 to 20 percent range. Areas further east are still expected to see a drop in RH over the next couple hours as drier air continues to advect eastward in the post-frontal air mass. Highest wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph have been occurring across central/north central SD today, and earlier issued a Wind Advisory to cover this. Will leave the headlines in place until its current expiration time of 01Z. Will be watching a cold front drop south across the area overnight, with decent cold air advection and an uptick in northwest winds later tonight (after a lull in winds after sunset), along with cooler temperatures for Tuesday. In the lower levels (925mb), we start off around +14C to +15C at 00Z this evening, but then cool to around +5C to +7C by 12Z Tuesday. Looking for a bit of a setback with highs on Tuesday compared to today, with readings dropping back into the mid 50s to low 60s. As for winds, they appear to stay generally below advisory levels for the time being, and in fact the strongest winds may be morning into early afternoon, with diminishing winds as the afternoon progresses on Tuesday. High pressure then settles in over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota Tuesday night. This will bring mostly clear skies, light winds, and chilly temperatures perhaps below freezing for some areas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Beginning 12Z Wednesday, our forecast area will be under the influence of high pressure at the sfc and aloft. The center of the sfc ridge will have translated east of our area Wednesday morning while the ridge aloft will be building across the Northern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Return flow on the backside of the sfc high will allow south to southeast winds to commence on Wednesday and persist through Thursday. A warmer air mass will be drawn northward into our area. 925mb temperatures are progged to warm to between +10C to +15C on Wednesday and to between +15C to around +20C on Thursday. This should translate nicely into daytime temperatures in the 60s and 70s. We'll just have to keep an eye on cloud cover vs sunshine, which could impact how far readings warm. A tighter pressure gradient these days will lead to gusty south to southeast winds. Models continue to peg Thursday as the windiest day across the board for our CWA. Most of our zones have a 50-90 percent chance to see wind gusts reach or exceed 40 mph. The upper flow pattern will begin to shift by the end of the work week. An upper trough is progged to trek across the 4 Corners region turning our flow southwesterly. This system is forecast to lift northeast into our region on Friday into Saturday. Sfc low pressure in conjunction with this upper disturbance will increase our rainfall chances by early Friday. In fact, during the day Friday into Friday evening appear to be the wettest period from this system. Lingering rain showers will be possible into the start of the weekend, but guidance does hint that a drying trend may take hold for a short time anyway. Another follow on upper trough is progged by longer range guidance to take a similar track early next week. This could increase our pcpn chances again by late in the weekend into Monday. Models are still fluctuating on how they handle this system, so uncertainty still remains. The 12Z deterministic set has latched onto a bit of different solution from previous runs in taking this early next week system just a bit farther south and east of our forecast area. We'll just have to keep an eye on trends during the next few days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday, except perhaps around KABR/KATY during the morning hours today where an occasional MVFR cig could occur. Northerly winds will again turn gusty with daytime heating later today. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...Vipond AVIATION...Dorn