000 ACUS03 KWNS 290727 SWODY3 SPC AC 290726 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk along this corridor. Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is expected to be too capped for convective initiation. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 $$