000
ACUS01 KWNS 250552
SWODY1
SPC AC 250551

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the contiguous United States
today.

...Southern and central Plains through Upper Mississippi Valley
regions...

Positive-tilt synoptic upper trough currently over the Rockies will
advance slowly east today. A cold front extending from the upper MS
Valley southwest into the southern High plains will make only slow
southeastward progress. A moist boundary layer with mid to upper 60s
F dewpoints reside in warm sector, but weak mid-level lapse rates
with relatively warm temperatures aloft (-6 to -7 C 500 mb
temperatures) should limit MLCAPE to well below 1000 J/kg in most
areas. Moreover, stronger winds aloft will remain in the
post-frontal region. Storms should continue developing along the
warm conveyor belt and in vicinity of the frontal zone from the
southern high plains into the upper MS Valley today into tonight.
Deep-layer south-southwesterly winds downstream from the upper
trough suggest a tendency for storms initiating along the front to
continue to be undercut. Storms developing both in warm sector and
along the cold front will be multicell in character, and given the
marginal thermodynamic environment, severe weather prospects appear
limited.

..Dial/Karstens.. 09/25/2017

$$