000 FXUS64 KOUN 252304 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 605 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .AVIATION... VFR conditions to continue. Will maintain a mention of shra at both GAG/WWR for an hour or two and will intro a chance at PNC. Could be a few shra/tstms across southwest OK into north TX during the morning hours on Monday, but confidence remains to low to mention in the TAFs at this time. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/ .DISCUSSION... The main forecast challenge is determining rain chances now through Tuesday. Through this evening, believe isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will affect parts of mainly western and northern Oklahoma. Light radar echoes over southwestern Oklahoma as of 245 pm will likely continue to weaken as they move southeast this afternoon, encountering a drier and more stable airmass. Most rain this evening appears to be in the form of showers and a few thunderstorms moving southeast from Kansas, likely from a stronger mid level disturbance in northwestern mid/upper flow. This activity will continue to spread southeast this afternoon and evening, at least into northwestern Oklahoma, and generally is expected to weaken as it moves into drier and more stable air. Regardless, increased rain chances slightly this evening across northwestern Oklahoma from this activity. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible over western Oklahoma where MUCAPE values 100-700 J/kg are forecast, though no severe storms are expected from the limited instability. Rainfall should remain light for the most part and under 0.25". After midnight tonight, not sure what exactly will happen, but kept 20% chances for weak showers and thunderstorms west of a Seymour, TX to Clinton to Ponca City line where there seems to be a slightly stronger model QPF signal. Mid level moisture remains abundant across much of the area, so even weak isentropic mid level lift could trigger some weak high based showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Do not expect widespread rains. Monday looks to be fairly similar to today. Kept low rain chances mainly over western Oklahoma with possible weak showers and storms during the morning hours in this area. Western north Texas may have some showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours as the air becomes increasing moist (precipitable water values 1.5-1.9") and unstable (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) which would support perhaps a few strong storms with gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures should stay slightly below average and mainly in the 80s. Monday night into early Tuesday, there appears to be a signal that storms may move into at least the northern half of Oklahoma from Kansas. Increased rain chances slightly to account for this. Severe potential remains low as these storms would be weakening as they head south since the air should be more stable in northern Oklahoma compared to Kansas. Additional weak showers and storms may be across the area, though confidence is low. Tuesday afternoon appears to be breezy, hotter, and more humid. Increasing mid level temperatures should allow for stronger capping, decreasing clouds, and diminished chances for rain. Tuesday night into early Wednesday, there may be additional showers and storms mainly over northern Oklahoma. Breezy and humid weather can be expected. Wednesday and Thursday, breezy to windy and hotter weather can be expected. This may elevate fire weather conditions. Thursday night through next Sunday, there still appears to be signal for wetter conditions across the area, mainly across northern Oklahoma, during this time frame. Increasing instability and moisture combined with some weak mid/upper level troughing and perhaps a weak front may allow for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to perhaps severe, and produce locally heavy rainfall. Kept rain chances in the forecast in many areas. Not confident at all that widespread rainfall will occur. Rain chances may decrease by Sunday along with the arrival of hotter conditions as possible mid/upper level ridging moves into the southern Plains. MBS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 85 66 88 / 20 10 20 10 Hobart OK 64 84 66 89 / 20 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 67 85 68 89 / 10 20 10 10 Gage OK 61 84 64 88 / 50 20 20 20 Ponca City OK 62 86 64 88 / 20 10 40 20 Durant OK 66 86 67 88 / 10 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 23/17