000 FXUS64 KOUN 242009 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 309 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .DISCUSSION... Early this afternoon, the center of a large western trough was located over Utah. The low will lift slowly northeast into the northern Plains over the next several days. Strong flow over the western side of the trough will encourage a closed low to form over the southwestern Untied States by Tuesday/Wednesday. A relatively narrow region of very moist air extends from southwest Texas, northward into the central and northern Plains, and is associated with areas of precipitation. A nearly stationary surface front over western and north Kansas/eastern Colorado, will move southward today and enter northwest Oklahoma by Monday afternoon. The surface front is expected to clear all but far southeast Oklahoma by late Tuesday afternoon. Relatively dry air behind the front and scattered to widespread precipitation will result in rather cool temperatures for most of Oklahoma and western north Texas. With the movement of the trough and surface front fairly well established, the main challenge will be timing of precipitation as well as favored locations. Stronger flow within the southern periphery of the western trough will approach western Texas tonight. This will result in scattered to widespread precipitation which should move into or develop across western Oklahoma/western north Texas. Relatively high PW values will result in areas of moderate to heavy rain, especially with convection. During the day Monday, favorable upper jet dynamics and an approaching cold front should result in widespread showers and some storms, especially across the northwest part of the state. Monday afternoon and night, better rain and storm chances are expected to shift east and south with a continued chance of moderate to heavy rainfall. Rain chances will remain rather high Tuesday as lift along and near an elevated front should result in at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation chances will remain relatively low across south central and southeast Oklahoma. By Wednesday, better rain chances are expected to be located over southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, but weak lift may result in mainly areas of light rain elsewhere. Weak mid level ridging Thursday, and another cool and dry air mass on Friday, will bring an end to most of the precipitation by late week. Although heavy rainfall totals will be possible through Tuesday/Wednesday, rainfall rates and the duration of the event will limit the potential for flooding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 70 83 66 73 / 20 40 50 70 Hobart OK 68 77 63 69 / 60 70 70 70 Wichita Falls TX 71 85 69 78 / 30 40 60 70 Gage OK 66 71 56 66 / 60 80 70 50 Ponca City OK 70 85 64 72 / 20 40 60 70 Durant OK 69 88 69 87 / 0 10 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$