000
FGUS71 KBTV 181524
ESFBTV
NYC019-031-033-089-VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-
027-021530-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1124 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /9/...

...DIMINISHING SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...

THIS IS THE NINTH FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2013 WINTER/SPRING
SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY THROUGH THE WINTER
AND SPRING BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT
TO SUMMARIZE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOW MELT AND BREAK UP OF
RIVER ICE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

...OVERVIEW...

THE SNOWMELT FLOOD THREAT IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ONGOING SNOWMELT HAS ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS...AND REMAINING SNOW
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FLOOD THREAT.
HOWEVER ADDITIONAL FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL IS NOT FORECAST AND
THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF A FLOOD AIDED BY SNOWMELT IS LOW. THE
ICE JAM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

...SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

THE ONLY REMAINING SNOWPACK WAS LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500
FEET. IN THOSE AREAS...SNOW DEPTH AND WATER CONTENT VARIED
DRAMATICALLY WITH HEIGHT.

SNOW DEPTHS AROUND 1500 FEET WERE SIX INCHES OR LESS...AND
INCREASED TO AROUND A FOOT THROUGH 2000 TO 2500 FEET. MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET HAD OVER 3 FEET OF REMAINING SNOW. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT...OR THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID WATER HELD IN THE
SNOWPACK...VARIED WITH SNOW DEPTH. THE 1500 FOOT ELEVATION MARK HAD
A COUPLE INCHES OF WATER...INCREASING TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SNOW WAS MELTING RAPIDLY...REDUCING THE EXTENT AND DEPTH OF SNOW
COVER ON A DAILY BASIS.

...RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

SNOWMELT AND PERIODIC LIGHT RAINFALL EPISODES HAVE KEPT SOILS
SOMEWHAT MOIST...BUT IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MOIST SOILS ENHANCE RUNOFF TO KEEP RIVERS AT NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AND RIVERS WERE EXHIBITING RISES AS EACH DAY'S
SNOWMELT RUNOFF MOVED DOWNSTREAM. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL HELPED
TO BOOST RIVER LEVELS AS WELL.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

RAIN IS FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY THAT WILL CAUSE SHARP RISES ON
AREA RIVERS...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND
FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO RECOVER FROM HIGHER
FLOWS...EVEN AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES GENERALLY UNABATED.

...SUMMARY...

ALTHOUGH THE SPRING FLOOD THREAT WAS ABOUT NORMAL FOR MID APRIL...THE
REGION WAS IN A TRANSITION OUT OF THE SNOWMELT FLOOD PERIOD.
RIVER LEVELS WERE ELEVATED BY ONGOING SNOWMELT...AND AT THE SAME
TIME WAS LESSENING THE POTENTIAL FLOOD CONTRIBUTION AS IT MELTED.
OVER THE COMING DAYS THE REGION WILL SEE CONTINUED SNOWMELT AND A
CONTINUED REDUCTION TO THE SPRING FLOOD THREAT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS THE SNOW COVER WILL BE REDUCED TO A
NEGLIGIBLE CONTRIBUTION TO FLOOD THREAT.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2013
SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE. WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL
RESUME IN JANUARY 2014.

ACCESS CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON OUR WEB SITE
AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BTV.

$$

HANSON