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Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook Map

The NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 3-month temperature outlooks for the United States. These outlooks represent the expected Chance for the average 3-month temperature to occur in one of three temperature categories: Above, Near or Below Normal. The categories are based on observations from the present climatological reference period of 1981 through 2010. During this 30-year period, temperatures were in the Below Normal category 1/3 (33.3%) of the time, in the Near Normal category 1/3 (33.3%) of the time, and in the Above Normal category 1/3 (33.3%) of the time. In other words, during 1981-2010, there was an Equal Chance (EC) for the average 3-month temperature to fall in any one of the three categories. The CPC outlooks reflect a change in these odds.

The national 3-month Temperature Outlook map shows areas with an enhanced chance for Above Normal temperatures shaded in red hues, for Below Normal, the areas are shaded in blue hues, and, for Near Normal, in grey hues. Important note: The national map shows only the most likely temperature category for an area, this means that there is still a chance (33.3% or less) for the average 3-month temperature to fall in one of the other two categories. Please see example below.

When CPC outlooks do not change the odds for the average temperature to occur in any one of the three categories from 33.3%, the area on the national map is not shaded and "EC" (Equal Chance) is marked. Important note: In such cases, users should take this information as guidance only, and not use as a high confidence forecast.

EXAMPLES OF 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INTERPRETATION:

National Map with red shades over Southern Alaska,west and southwest US. EC stands for north and northeast US

Interpretation Example for Northwest Arizona:

• There is a 60% chance for the average May June July temperature to be in Above Normal category

• There is a %33 chance for Near Normal category

• There is a 7% chance for Below Normal category

Interpretation Example for Great Lakes Area:

• There is a 33% chance (equal chance) for the MJJ temperature to be in each category (B,N,A)
• Users should take this information as guidance only, not as a high confidence forecast. This is especially true if their decision making is associate with high risk

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